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Hey, Hey, Hey!  Beer Inst Estimates A Taxpaid Gain in May! YTD US Shipments Still Off Near 2%  

Following nasty 2.3-mil-bbl taxpaid shipments decline Feb-Apr, Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich estimates domestic brewers’ May taxpaids +600K bbls, 3.8%.  That’s best single mo since last Aug.  For 5 mos, taxpaids still -1.4 mil bbls, -2%.  And with imports flattish thru Apr, means known yr-to-date US shipments also off 1.4 mil bbls, 1.7%.  Jun-Jul could be oppy for domestic brewers to pick up some lost ground.  Last yr, mid-summer shipments down over 700K bbls, 2.2%.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 114; June 22, 2017

 

More Tuff Sales Results: AB Down 4.5% for 4 Weeks thru Jun 4 in IRI MULC; MC Down 3.1% 

Total beer volume dropped 2.2% for 4 weeks thru Jun 4 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data, reported by Consumer Edge’s Brett Cooper this morn.  AB had especially rough Memorial Day period as its volume dropped 4.5% for 4 weeks.  And its avg prices up only 0.7%.So it lost 1.2 share of volume and 1.4 of $$ during this period.  MillerCoors volume down 3.1%, but its avg prices down 0.1%.  So  it lost just 0.2 share of volume, but still lost 0.6 share of $$.   Constellation Brands Beer Division volume up 11% with avg prices up 1.3%.  But  Brett breaks out Constellation’s imported and domestic volume (domestic is Ballast Point).  And Ballast Point volume down 9% for 4 weeks.  In all, Constellation gained 1.1 share of volume, 1.4 of $$ for 4 weeks thru Jun 4 in IRI MULC.   Boston Beer also continued to experience significant declines.  Volume and $$ down about 7% for 4 weeks.  So its avg prices about flat (up 0.2%).  And finally Heineken volume down 2.8% for 4 weeks thru Jun 4 in IRI MULC and its avg prices up 1.1%.   With 4 of 5 suppliers down 3% or more, and no supplier averaging more than 1% in pricing (rounded),  in all this is not a very pretty picture for any of these companies, except Constellation. And that’s way it’s been so far in 2017.

Brett also updated his forecasts for 2d qtr beer company depletions based on latest IRI softening.  Brett now expects AB volume will be down 3.5% in Q2, MC down 2.5%, Boston Beer down 7.5% and Craft Brew Alliance will be down 3%.   Only Constellation depletions expected to be up 10% for qtr.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 108; June 13, 2017