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From Leap Day to Dive Month; Huge Feb Taxpaid Drop Obliterates Jan Gain, and Then Some

Given high distrib inventories and loss of Leap Day, hadda expect tuff Feb taxpaid estimate.  But -1.2 mil bbls, -9.4%?  Ouch!  That’s what Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich estimates for domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments in Feb, citing lost day/inventory draw down to explain the hit.  That was biggest dropoff since similar 9% drop way back in Jul 2011 and a few points worse than the last Feb-following-Leap Year, Feb 2013, when shipments down 6%.  In any case, Feb loss wiped out half-mil-bbl gain posted by taxpaids/imports in Jan, and then some.  Feb imports won’t be known for a few weeks, but for now, known US shipments -720K bbls, 2.6% yr-to-date.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 54; March 23, 2017

Beer Prices Up 1.6% in Feb  

Consumer price index for beer increased 1.6% in Feb vs yr ago, per latest gov’t stats. That’s once again in-line with beer pricing over past several months, but CPI for beer fell further behind pricing for all items which posted solid 2.7% gain in Feb. CPI for beer has now lagged increases for all items in 4 of last 5 months. Still ahead of spirits and wine tho. CPI for spirits off 0.8% in Feb vs yr ago while wine fell 1.4%.  Over last 12 mos thru Feb, CPI for beer was up 1.8% vs 1.5% gain for all items, while spirits prices up 0.3%, wine off 0.3%.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 49; March 15, 2017