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Beer Up 0.4% for Full Yr  in Nielsen Thru Dec 31; Constellation Up 1.3 Share of $$

Total beer volume up at an anemic 0.4% pace for full yr 2016 in Nielsen all-outlet.  AB down 1% and MC down 1.7% (each down 5% or so last 4 weeks).  AB lost 0.7 share and MC lost 0.5 share of volume.  AB down 1 full share of $$ and MC down 0.7 share of $$ for full yr thru Dec 31.  Who grabbed it?  You guessed it, no doubt.  Constellation volume up 14.4%, $$ up 17.6%.  It gained 0.9 share of volume and 1.3 share of $$; now over 10 share of $$.  HUSA volume down 0.2% for yr (6% for 4 weeks) and it basically held share, but no growth.  Boston Beer declined near 10% for 4 weeks, 3.6% yr-to-date (not including Alchemy & Science).  Imports up 7% for full yr in Nielsen and craft up less than 3% (as Nielsen defines it).  FMBS slowed to 5.5% growth for full yr (down 8.4% for last 4 weeks). 

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 6; January 10, 2017


Imports +4% in Nov, Beating Big Comp; Gained Near 2 Mil Bbls, 7% For 11 Mos; Tuff Dec Hurdle

Continued Mexican shipments momentum, and big gain from Germany, offset tuff overall import comp in Nov (+17% last yr) to drive 100K-bbl, 4% increase for the month, reports Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich based on Commerce Dept data.  Mexican shipments up 169K bbls, 11% in Nov; German shipments doubled.  For 11 mos, imports up just below 2 mil bbls, 6.9%.  Mexican shipments posted massive 2.5-mil-bbl, 14% gain Jan-Nov.  German shipments jumped 170K bbls, 30%.  And Irish shipments up 154K bbls, 20%.  But almost 900K bbls of that collective increase offset by yr-to-date shipments declines from Netherlands (-7%), Belgium (-8%), Canada (-19%) and UK, (-27%).  Lots riding on final mo, and not just for import total.  Dec imports in 2015 surged remarkable 550K bbls, 29%, almost 1/3 of entire import gain that yr.  What happened in Dec 2016 will impact both import trend and total US shipments trend for the yr.  We’ll know in a month.

INSIGHTS Express; Vol 19, No 4; January 6, 2017