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Top 2 Slip to 2/3 of Total Shipments, Down from 78+ in 2008; Each Off 2-3% in 1st Half

A funny thing happened on the way to duopoly.  It didn’t happen.  With each of AB and MC continuing to put up weak volume numbers in 1st half ‒ each off 2-3% for 6 mos ‒ their combined mkt share slipped to 2/3 of total shipments for 12 mos, we estimate.  That’s down from 78.2 share in 2008 when InBev bought AB, Miller and Coors merged.  For 12 mos thru Jun, AB shipped estimated 91.3 mil bbls and had about 42.3 share.  Down from 107 mil bbls in calendar 2008 (its peak) and 48.8 share.  Meanwhile, MC shipped about 52.9 mil bbls for 12 mos thru Jun 2017 and had approx 24.5 share.  Down from 64.5 mil bbls (also its peak), 29.4 share in 2008.  Neither AB nor MC gained share since AB held in 2009, MC ticked up 0.1.  Once again, Constellation’s gain jumps off the page, in stark contrast to competitors.  Indeed, Constellation only top-6 brewer up for Q2, last 6 mos and 12 mos.  And Constellation, along with Boston, is only top-6 brewer to grow mkt share since 2008.

(excerpt) beer marketer’s INSIGHTS, Vol 48, No 15; August 14, 2017

 

4th of July Fireworks Fizzled Later in Mo; 4-Wk Volume Up 0.7% in Nielsen Scans, $$ Up 2.4%

Jul was okay mo for beer, certainly better than very soft Jun, meh May.  But after strong high-singles $$ gain in Jul 4 week, sales went flat to down later in month, Nielsen all-outlet scans show, Goldman Sachs’ Judy Hong reported this morn.  In cut of data we see, volume up 0.7% for 4 wks thru Jul 29, $$ up 2.4%.  Recall, Jun volume down 3.3%, $$ down 1.7%.  With May sales soft too, no sizzle so far in summer of ’17.

Beer drinkers didn’t buy much more beer in Jul, but they continued to trade up.  And looks like some traded down.  Import, craft and FMB volume each up mid-singles and superpremiums up 12.5%, as Mich Ultra actually ratcheted up in Jul (+24%).  So above premium segments nabbed additional 2.1 share of volume in Jul, 2.5 share of $$.  At same time, economy volume matched 0.7% overall gain.  So economy held volume share for 4 wks and yr-to date.  Means all of above premium volume share gains comin’ from premium.  Premium light trends did improve in Jul.  Bud Light -5.8%, vs -9.4% in Jun.  Coors Light -3%, vs -6.7% in Jun.  Miller Lite off just 0.8% in Jul, vs -5.4% previous mo.  Bud improved to -6% from -9.3%.  All in, MC reduced dropoff pace to 0.8% in Jul, about half of AB’s 1.7% drop.  Constellation truckin’ along at +11.9% for 4 wks and yr-to-date.  HUSA trends about the same, down 1-2%.  Boston up in Jul; still -4.8% for 7 mos.  Mike’s and Diageo each up double-digits in Jul.  NAB and Pabst each up too for the mo (data excludes NYFRB from Pabst total), tho each down slightly YTD.

INSIGHTS Express, Vol 19, No 149; August 8, 2017