Short impactful note on Heineken by Nomura’s Edward Mundy makes point that keeps cropping up in many of INSIGHTS post-ABI-SAB conversations: Megabrew “changes the global beer landscape,” said Edward. “We see continued pressure on most brewers… to achieve further critical mass in order to ensure a place at the end of consolidation.” Editor’s note: everyone is reviewing their options and wondering where they fit in the rapidly changing landscape.

Specifically for Heineken, Edward asks: “Should Heineken partner with Molson Coors to buy out SABMiller’s 58% stake in the MillerCoors JV… or should the company wait for further assets, which may or may not come out of the ABI-SAB transaction?” In separate analysis (see below), Bernstein suggests that Heineken could be buyer of Diageo’s beer biz, worth about $11 bil, if Diageo were to sell. That’s lots of different options. And that’s just some of what Heineken likely considers. Of course, unknown whether Molson Coors would be interested in selling a stake to Heineken. In fact, Edward’s own analysis figures that most likely scenario is that Molson Coors would purchase SABMiller’s 58% stake. But one of benefits of Heineken taking a stake is that “longer term, it could also bring the Heineken, Molson and Coors families closer together.” Many view that potential combination more likely down the road, following ABI-SAB.