Only early Jan, but 2002 malternative mkt already shaping up to be action-packed, more crowded and hugely advertised. In face of competitive onslaught, GBIC (owned by Diageo) is upping ante. It expects to sell 100 mil cases in 2002, GBIC prexy John Replogle told INSIGHTS. If so, GBIC would double for 2d straight yr, including lots more Smirnoff Ice, other new ready-to-drink brands and its beer biz. Smirnoff Ice reportedly getting big boost in ad budget and personnel. It will be advertised in 35 top local mkts on Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Diageo will launch at least 2 new ready-to-drink brands in 02, say distribs; they expect Captain Morgan announcement shortly. AB expects to intro Bacardi Silver next mo; plans $50 mil of media (about $20 mil paid for by distribs at $2 per case). AB expects to sell 800,000 bbls, and most distribs think it can sell more. AB in tricky position; wants to play in segment, but doesnt want to hurt its beer volume. Whats more, its Silver margin may be less than Bud and Bud Light as it splits profits with Bacardi. Silver is not 1 of ABs top 2 high-end priorities; those would be Michelob Light and Michelob Amber. AB puttin pressure on many of its distribs that carry Smirnoff Ice to give it up, and giving higher Silver volume objectives to those distribs that carry Smirnoff Ice too. At presstime, INSIGHTS knows of no AB distrib that has relinquished brand. Meanwhile, Miller intro SKYY Blue, a joint venture with SKYY, will get $40 mil of total mktg support, according to a Miller spokesman. This is Millers most significant new product foray since new Miller beer in 96. And Mikes aint resting on laurels either; it recently committed to upping total mktg by 50% in 02 and expects more growth.
In 2001, the malternative segment sold over 5 mil bbls, up about 2 mil bbls (including coolers and Zima). Smirnoff Ice and Mikes totaled almost 2.5 mil bbls, up about 1.9 mil bbls: Smirnoff at around 1.65 mil bbls, Mikes 800,000 bbls. Now even more big guns aimed at fledgling segment. Key questions for malternatives in 02: How high is up? Who wins, who loses? How much of these new products biz will be incremental, and which brands (beer or malternative) will take hit? A lot riding on answers to these questions.