Just a couple weeks ago, craft was eking out slight gains in Jan scans, with volume up 0.5% and $$ up 2.1% in Nielsen All Outlet data thru Jan 28. But all of a sudden, craft volume down 3.4% and $$ down 1.4% for 4 wks thru Feb 11, implying steeper declines for latest 2 wks (surrounding Super Bowl weekend). In fact, this 4 week total volume decline, -235K cases, is steepest drop for craft in a while (biggest 4-wk drop last yr was less than 200K CEs thru Dec 24).
Largest craft brand families continue to drag down total trend even further. Sam Adams (-22.5%) and Sierra Nevada (-19%) volume together declined more than total segment for 4 wks. Shock Top volume down a whopping 39% and Blue Moon franchise down 4%. So those 4 are collectively down nearly 442K cases and over $13 mil for 4 wks in this data set – down 0.4 share of total beer volume and 0.6 share of $$. Meanwhile, New Belgium managed to maintain +2.4% growth rate for 4 wks and YTD. And Leinie Shandy franchise up 24% for 4 wks behind strong Leinie Grapefruit Shandy sales. But keep in mind, that doesn’t include its legacy craft portfolio, which has been down enuf to offset any shandy gains to this point. Altogether, these top 6 craft brand families make up 36.5% of total craft volume and collectively declined 14.5%. All remaining craft brand families collectively grew volume 4.4%.