No matter how you look at it, it’s been tuff start for 2017 volume. Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments down 2 mil bbls, 3.6% for 4 mos, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich. And Feb-Apr drop of 2.3 mil bbls, -5.3% is “worst three month period in over ten years” for that measure, Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling noticed. Worse even than 2009, when total US volume closed out -2%. Jan-Apr imports just flat, following somewhat shocking 8% drop in Apr. That’s big disconnect, since IRI shows 7% import growth and Constellation depletions up 9-10% in first qtr. (Constellation brought in extra beer last yr related to recall and becoming independent of AB production.) Now known yr-to-date US shipments off 2 mil bbls, 3%. Yikes! For 12 mos, taxpaids off 3.2 mil bbls, almost 2%. Imports still up 4.4%. That means US biz down 0.9% for latest 12 mos, vs a 0.3% or so gain in calendar 2016. That’s more than a full pt swing. Or 2 mil bbls.