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06/06/2017

How’s Biz? Don’t Ask; 12-Mo Trend Flipped Over A Point to -0.9%; Worst 3-Mos in Decade? (excerpt)

No matter how you look at it, it’s been tuff start for 2017 volume.  Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments down 2 mil bbls, 3.6% for 4 mos, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich.  And Feb-Apr drop of 2.3 mil bbls, -5.3% is “worst three month period in over ten years” for that measure, Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling noticed.  Worse even than 2009, when total US volume closed out -2%.  Jan-Apr imports just flat, following somewhat shocking 8% drop in Apr.  That’s big disconnect, since IRI shows 7% import growth and Constellation depletions up 9-10% in first qtr. (Constellation brought in extra beer last yr related to recall and becoming independent of AB production.)  Now known yr-to-date US shipments off 2 mil bbls, 3%. Yikes! For 12 mos, taxpaids off 3.2 mil bbls, almost 2%.  Imports still up 4.4%.  That means US biz down 0.9% for latest 12 mos, vs a 0.3% or so gain in calendar 2016.  That’s more than a full pt swing.  Or 2 mil bbls.

Publishing Info

  • Year: 2017
  • Volume: 49
  • Issue #: 11
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