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08/04/2017

Imports Stayed Soft in Jun; Up Just 41K Bbls, 0.2% for 1st Half; Mexican Mystery Continues

We keep expecting solid pop in import shipments given 6-7% gains in scan data.  It keeps not happening.  Import shipments edged up just 17K bbls, 0.5% in Jun, reports Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich based on Commerce Dept data.  Mexican shipments trend improved slightly, but only very slightly: up 2.7% in Jun.  That’s far better than 5.2% drop in Dutch shipments, 8.5% decline in Canadian shipments and big fall in Belgian shipments.  Belgian decline offset by big German gain, again suggesting lotsa Stella being shipped thru Germany.  For 6 mos, imports up an anemic 41K bbls, 0.2%.  Mexican shipments up just 54K bbls, 0.5%, way behind Constellation’s trend.  That suggests possibility of reporting/inventory issues.  Dutch shipments off 39K bbls, 1.6% for 6 mos.  Canadian shipments down 34K bbls, 4.6%.  Irish and UK shipments down 4% and 19% respectively.   While reported Belgian shipments down 223K bbls, 24%, that’s more than offset by 257K-bbl, 85% increase from Germany.  With imports so soft in Q2 (-2%) and flat for 6 mos, suggests total US shipments off about 1.4 mil bbls, 1.3% Jan-Jun.  We’ll have details in next week’s BMI.

Publishing Info

  • Year: 2017
  • Volume: 19
  • Issue #: 148
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