We keep expecting solid pop in import shipments given 6-7% gains in scan data. It keeps not happening. Import shipments edged up just 17K bbls, 0.5% in Jun, reports Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich based on Commerce Dept data. Mexican shipments trend improved slightly, but only very slightly: up 2.7% in Jun. That’s far better than 5.2% drop in Dutch shipments, 8.5% decline in Canadian shipments and big fall in Belgian shipments. Belgian decline offset by big German gain, again suggesting lotsa Stella being shipped thru Germany. For 6 mos, imports up an anemic 41K bbls, 0.2%. Mexican shipments up just 54K bbls, 0.5%, way behind Constellation’s trend. That suggests possibility of reporting/inventory issues. Dutch shipments off 39K bbls, 1.6% for 6 mos. Canadian shipments down 34K bbls, 4.6%. Irish and UK shipments down 4% and 19% respectively. While reported Belgian shipments down 223K bbls, 24%, that’s more than offset by 257K-bbl, 85% increase from Germany. With imports so soft in Q2 (-2%) and flat for 6 mos, suggests total US shipments off about 1.4 mil bbls, 1.3% Jan-Jun. We’ll have details in next week’s BMI.
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