Brewer shipments really slowed during peak selling season and industry not much better than flat yr-to-date. After putting up 1.6-mil-bbl, 2.1% gain Jan-May, domestic brewers' taxpaid shipments down 428,000 bbls, 0.8% Jun-Aug, estimates Beer Inst's Lester Jones. That pulled YTD taxpaid shipments gain below 1%. Meanwhile, imports stayed sluggish: down 3% Jan-Jul. Add 'em together and US shipments up just 626,000 bbls, 0.4% YTD. And that's goin' into widespread Q4 price increase, struggling economy and not-so-easy comp of +2.6% in Q4 07 taxpaids. Imports have very easy comp tho, -9.6% Sep-Dec 07.
Recent slowdown reflected in c-stores, where case volume up just 0.1% for 12 wks thru Sep 6, reports Nielsen, well below +0.8% 52-wk trend. Another not-so-hot sign in c-stores: lowest-price "budget" beers gained 0.4 share over the summer, while imports lost 0.3, premiums -1.1 and craft share flat. But biz got better in supers over summer. Volume +2.1% for 13 wks thru Sep 7, IRI reports. That's while 52-wk trend +1.3%, following flat 07, -1% in 06. No signs of trade-down to subpremiums in supers either. Summer volume of sub-premiums up just 0.2% and they continued to lose share. Most higher-priced categories outperformed subs: super-premium biz jumped 24% riding Bud Light Lime.
What's ahead? Tho beer has so-far weathered worst of economic trends, gotta figure we're in for rougher ride too. Slowdown in consumer spending -- 3d qtr expected to be 1st time since 1990 that consumer spending down - rising unemployment, constant forecasts of "deeper recession" than many expected, together with new round of price increases, will undoubtedly take toll. Interesting deep dive into US alc bev mkt in late-Sep by UK analyst Chris Pitcher (Redburn Partners) tried to measure impact of economy on biz. Some key takeaways: "accelerating shift" from on-premise to off-premise, off-premise getting "more competitive," retailers reducing inventory and consumers becoming more "value-oriented," tho "no clear evidence" consumers trading down in beer, wrote Chris.
Sharp Summer Shipments Slowdown Cut YTD Growth to +0.4%; C-Stores Soft; Supers Solid
Publishing Info
- Newsletter: Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS
- Published: 10/09/2008
- Volume: 39
- Issue #: 19