Lotsa minus signs in table below with estimated shipments for US biz and top suppliers in Q2, 1st half and 12 mos. So pain of soft volume -- revs still up 2-3% -- spread far and wide. On top of that, figures for several top players you don't see - Crown, Heineken USA and Diageo - are all worse. Gotta get down to Yuengling (#8 supplier) and craft players below Boston to see many healthy plus signs (tho AB's 12-mo gain of 1.2% still comparatively solid). As Jun import shipments came in down 84,000 bbls, 3% (see below), means US shipments off 1% in 2d qtr, 1.4% for 6 mos. Up 0.6% same periods last yr.
AB shipments really slowed since 2-3% gains in back half of 08. Its 1% decline in 2d qtr put AB almost even for 6 mos on shipments basis. STRs down 0.8% in 2d qtr, following 2.1% gain in 1st qtr, but still up 0.5% for 6 mos on selling-day adjusted basis. Tho AB ain't settin' world afire, it is gaining share. Popped up to 49 share for 6 mos and 49.1 for 12 mos. That's up 0.5 share for 6 mos, 0.8 share for 12 mos. Still a half-share below AB peak in 03, but best 12-mo share since 04. Hard to believe but AB share has hovered between 48 and 49.6 for a decade. MillerCoors basically moving with industry trend so far in 09, but shipments under-performed for 12 mos with that 4% hit in Q4 08. As noted, JV still lookin' to book its 1st qtrly shipments gain, tho reported STRS up in 2 of 4 qtrs so far. And JV shipments shrunk by over 1 mil bbls since inception. Crown Imports down low-mid single digits for 6 mos, we estimate, HUSA down high singles. But look at Pabst comin' on. It actually gained volume 2 of last 3 qtrs. Near even for 12 mos, we estimate. Pabst ain't givin' up easy or big volume to big brewers anymore.
Bbls (000)
Chg
bbls (000)
Chg>
Bbls (000)
Chg
2d 09
2d 08
bbls
%
6Mos 09
6Mos 08
bbls
%
12Mos 09
bbls
%
AB
27,725
27,975
-250
-0.9
53,975
54,100
-125
-0.2
106,900
1,300
1.2
MillerCoors
17,925
18,125
-200
-1.1
32,360
32,710
-350
-1.1
64,150
-1,080
-1.7
Pabst
1,700
1,680
20
1.2
3,020
3,045
-25
-0.8
5,875
-20
-0.3
Others
11,638
11,727
-89
-0.8
20,875
21,783
-908
-4.2
40,661
-1,352
-3.2
Total
58,988
59,507
-519
-0.9
110,230
111,638
-1,408
-1.3
217,586
-1,152
-0.5
(Taxfree)
1,300
1,250
50
4.0
2,450
2,350
100
4.3
4,650
175
3.9
US Total
57,688
58,257
-569
-1.0
107,780
109,288
-1,508
-1.4
212,936
-1,327
-0.6
All figures are BMI estimates of shipments, subject to revision.
Best performer among top 10 suppliers: Yuengling, by far. Up about 100,000 bbls, 12% thru Jun, while top 7 suppliers combined for approx 1.1-mil-bbl dropoff. Tho craft shipments strong in scanner and shipments trends (much) better than for big players, Boston shipments down 8% in 1st half, about 80,000 bbls. Solid gains for smaller players are drivin' the craft segment for now. What are prospects for 2d half? Overall comp fairly easy. US beer biz up just 200,000 bbls, 0.2% Jul-Dec 08. But MillerCoors ceo Leo Kiely said on Aug 3 that "if anything," Jul was "softer month" than Jan-Jun and that MC doesn't "see any particular reason why" industry trend will change for rest of yr.
1st Half Shipments Nuthin´ to Shout About for Any Top Player; AB Inches Toward 50 (Again)
Publishing Info
- Newsletter: Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS
- Published: 08/16/2009
- Volume: 40
- Issue #: 15