Dec Dud: Domestic Taxpaids Dropped 8%, 1.1 Mil Bbls in Dec; US Biz Down Over 1% for Yr
Not the note that beer biz hoped for at end of a tough year. Following Oct-Nov gains, domestic taxpaid shipments suffered unexpectedly steep drop in Dec. Down 1.096 mil bbls, 8%. Finished yr down 3.8 mil bbls, 2.2%, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich. That was worst annual shipments decline for domestic brewers since 1954, Michael pointed out. OUCH. Some of drop attributable to lower inventories and 1 less selling day, Michael also noted. Distrib inventories down an avg 10% during Dec. But even with 1.1 mil-bbl, 3.3% gain for imports thru Nov, means total US biz down 2.7 mil bbls, 1.3% in available data. That’s about a half point worse than INSIGHTS estimated and also total US industry’s worst yr since 2011.
INSIGHTS Express, Vol 20, #16; Jan 26, 2018
First Peek’s A Strong Week in 2018 Scans, But It’s Just One; 4-Week Trend Still -0.6%
Can’t get too excited about a single week, but late-2017 scans were soft and nice to see 4.6% volume pop in first week of Nielsen all-outlet scans. Every major supplier except Pabst posted positive thru Jan 6. Constellation, Boston and Mike’s flew outta the gate with big % jumps. Coors Light and Miller Lite each up slightly; Bud Light reduced dropoff rate to -1.4%. For 4 wks, volume still off 0.6%, with similar trends to Dec, tho Boston turned solidly positive (+5%), with very easy comp.
INSIGHTS Express, Vol 20, No 9; Jan 16, 2018