Domestic brewers' taxpaid shipments down over 800,000 bbls, 1.7% Apr-Jun, estimates Lester Jones at Beer Inst. Imports flat, we estimate, tho Jun number not yet reported. For 6 mos, US shipments down about 2.2%, but recall that depletions off more like 3%, with AB and MC selling-day adjusted depletions each off near 4%. Innovation not really driving improved overall numbers for AB or MC so far this yr. AB shipments down another 440,000 bbls, -1.7% in Q2. That's better than expected but also well ahead of depletions trend of -3.6%. Pushed AB's yr-to-date shipments dropoff to 1.7 mil bbls, -3.4%, just slightly ahead of -3.8% depletions trend. And AB now down 700,000 bbls, 0.7% for 12 mos, after having gained 0.7% in calendar 2012. MillerCoors posted its weakest shipments and depletions trends since the advent of MC JV in 2008. Shipments off nearly 900,000 bbls, 5.3%, and depletions down 4.4% in Q2. For 6 mos, MC shipments off 1.2 mil bbls, 4%, and 12-mo trend is -3%, back to its 2010 and 2011 calendar-yr trends.
Crown continues to outperform overall and import mkt, driven by outsized growth of Modelo Especial. Crown also doing much better in its biggest states, up 6-9% yr-to-date in Tex, Calif and Fla, than overall. Q2 shipments up about 125,000 bbls, 3.3%, putting Crown's 6-mo gain just below 200,000 bbls, 3%. Crown was only top 5 brewer up for 6 mos, we estimate, and it has passed 6 share mark. Gotta go back to 1999 to find last time supplier other than AB, Miller or Coors had over 6 share of US beer biz. That was Pabst right after it bought most of Stroh. HUSA shipments dipped slightly in Q2, closer to depletions trend than in tuff-comp Q1. Pabst hangin' in around even yr-to-date.
Bbls (000) | Chg | Bbls (000) | Chg | Bbls (000) | Chg | |||||
Q2 13 | Q2 12 | bbls | % | 6Mos 13 | 6Mos 12 | bbls | % | 12Mos 13 | % | |
AB | 25,430 | 25,870 | -440 | -1.7 | 48,130 | 49,820 | -1,690 | -3.4 | 97,510 | -0.7 |
MillerCoors | 15,910 | 16,800 | -890 | -5.3 | 29,010 | 30,230 | -1,220 | -4.0 | 57,730 | -3.0 |
Crown | 3,810 | 3,687 | 123 | 3.3 | 6,460 | 6,277 | 183 | 2.9 | 12,485 | 2.3 |
HUSA | 2,300 | 2,325 | -25 | -1.1 | 4,250 | 4,375 | -125 | -2.9 | 8,335 | 0.4 |
Pabst | 1,655 | 1,675 | -20 | -1.2 | 3,025 | 3,025 | 0 | 0.0 | 5,950 | 2.0 |
Others | 8,075 | 7,679 | 396 | 5.2 | 15,977 | 15,406 | 571 | 3.7 | 29,643 | 5.7 |
Total | 57,180 | 58,036 | -856 | -1.5 | 106,852 | 109,133 | -2,281 | -2.1 | 211,653 | -0.2 |
(Taxfree) | 1,270 | 1,316 | -46 | -3.5 | 2,445 | 2,420 | 25 | 1.0 | 5,105 | 7.0 |
US Total | 55,910 | 56,720 | -810 | -1.4 | 104,407 | 106,713 | -2,306 | -2.2 | 206,548 | -0.4 |
All figures are BMI estimates of shipments, subject to revision. |