As scan data shows significant craft slowdown so far this yr and several biggest players flat-to-down in first half, craft segment as defined by BA posted 8% growth Jan-Jun, estimates Bart Watson.  Craft scored double-digit gains each of last 6 calendar yrs.  Elusive craft definition complicates reported trends.  Bart’s growth estimate based on brewers that will be in BA-data set in 2016.  That excludes fast-growers Lagunitas and Ballast Point (Founders already out), as they’re not BA-defined craft brewers anymore.  Another fast-grower, AB’s Goose Island, ain’t in the number either.  Trend would be higher with ’em. 

Recall, BA does not include big brewers’ craft brands/acquisitions, nor Craft Brew Alliance. But BA does include Yuengling, which softens trend.  So do first-half downturns at Boston, Sierra Nevada and a coupla other big craft brewers.  But “long tail of craft continues to smoke,” sez Bart, “there's very little evidence of much of a slowdown there.”  Tail and newbies adding incremental and oft-missed on-site/taproom volume not measured by other data services.  

Speakin’ of newbies, no slowdown in folks entering the biz.  A whoppin’ 917 new operating brewers in US since same time last yr and brewer count now sits at 4,656.  Oh yeah, there’s another 2,200 in planning, sez BA.  Bart calls this a “maturing” market.  Be interesting how aging breweries adapt and how many newbies survive/thrive.