Beer Marketer's Insights
While total AB sales-to-retailers up 2% thru 1st week in Jul, Bud and Bud Light "slightly exceeded total growth rate," according to Randy. Michelob family "slightly less," as Michelob Light and Amber Bock had "solid" growth, Ultra did "very well" in test and Michelob brand down. (Ultra at 0.8 share in supers in 1 test mkt, wrote UBS Warburg's Caroline Levy.) As trading up continued, Busch and Natural families flat. While AB "pleased" with Bacardi Silver, Randy noted new malternatives generally are "getting trial," but "not penetrating traditional 21-30 male beer consumer to any significant extent." (See more below.) AB up 20%+ in China in 2d qtr and had "substantially higher profits" there. A few days after 2d qtr report, AB announced strategic alliance with #1 Chinese brewer Tsingtao. AB will increase its stake above 5% it now owns of Tsingtao.
AB’s recent outperformance underscored in latest supermkt data. AB up 8.2% for 4 weeks thru Jul 14 in supers, while total beer biz up 5.5%, according to IRI. So beer sales in supers continue growing faster than in other channels. AB the big winner over Jul 4th holiday. Gained 1.1 share of volume in period compared to its 0.5 share gain yr-to-date. Miller volume up 1.5%, but it lost 0.9 share for 4 weeks, 0.6 share YTD. Coors also lost 0.2 share over Jul 4th period even tho volume up 3.8%. Down 0.1 share YTD. While Miller and Coors relative performance weakened in most recent 4 weeks, Pabst improved: volume up 1% and share down 0.2, compared to 0.4 share loss and 3% volume drop YTD. Interestingly, import share growth slowed in most recent period: up just 0.2 share for 4 weeks (0.3 YTD). Other big gainers: malternatives. Got nearly 4 share for 4 weeks, up 0.7.
Bud Light drove all of AB share growth and more: Over July 4th, up 14% and gained 1.3 share for 4 weeks. More than half of Miller share losses in Lite (0.2) and Gen Draft (0.3); Coors Light held share for 4 weeks; up 0.1 YTD. Coors lost 0.1 share each on Coors Original and Zima for 4 weeks. Modelo brands held share but Corona Extra volume only up 3% for 4 weeks. And while malternative segment up 30% for 4 weeks, check out these brand trends: Smirnoff Ice up just 8%, Mike’s Hard Lemonade down 9%. Meanwhile, SKYY Blue sold slightly more than Bacardi Silver for 4 weeks (each had 0.4 share); no other new malternative intro got 0.1 share for 4 weeks.
While overall malt bev biz in US trending up 1%+ so far this yr, AB continues to outperform major domestic competitors. Total US shipments up estimated 1% in 2d qtr, 1.5% for 6 mos. A lot of that increase: malternatives, especially Smirnoff Ice and new-brand rollouts. Traditional beer biz barely up so far this yr even as imports gained estimated 6-7% (up 7% thru May). For 12 mos, US biz still up less than 1%; imports up 5.5%.
AB was sole gainer among top-4 brewers in 2d qtr and only major brewer ahead for 6 mos and 12 mos. Up 550,000 bbls, 2.1% Apr-Jun. Picked up 900,000 bbls, 1.8% for 6 mos. AB reported sales-to-retailers (STRs) up 2% YTD thru 1st week of July to tease out effect of Jul 4 "timing differences" this yr vs last yr. (Buy-in was earlier last yr.) For 12 mos, AB up 1.3 mil bbls, 1.3% and up 0.3 share to 48.8. Miller trend reversed in 2d qtr: shipments down estimated 260,000 bbls, 2.3%, following 150,000-bbl gain in 1st qtr, flat 4th qtr 2001. For 6 mos, Miller off 0.5% despite rollout of 3 malternatives; its beer biz down estimated 2-3% during period. PM didn’t report Miller’s STR trend in 2d qtr, but STRs down 2.6% in 1st qtr. For 12 mos, Miller lost about a half-share to 19.5.
Coors’ US/export biz nothin’ to shout about either. Down slightly Jan-Jun. And Coors STR trend softened in 2d qtr: it was flat (adjusting for Jul 4) following 1.4% gain in 1st qtr. Coors shipments off 190,000 bbls, 0.8% for 12 mos; share off 0.2. Dipped back below 11. Since string of 4 qtrs when Coors averaged 6% growth (4th qtr 99 thru 3d qtr 2000), Coors down 200,000 bbls, 0.5%, over last 7 qtrs. (Coors worldwide volume, including UK acquisition, up 3.9 mil bbls, 33% Jan-Jun to 15.4 mil bbls; Carling biz growin’ in UK.) Pabst dropoff in 2d qtr similar to 1st qtr: off estimated 3% so far this yr. "All Other" domestic brewers down slightly in 2d qtr, up about 2% for 6 mos. That includes Boston gain (75,000 bbls for 6 mos) and malternative production at Diageo’s Pennsy plant. Import growth slowed to mid single-digits in 1st half, we estimate, as Corona price increase kicked in. Modelo 2d-qtr exports from Mexico up about 5%; FEMSA exports up about 6%. Modelo gained double-digits for 6 mos vs 7% for FEMSA.
Shipments(000) |
Chg Shipments(000) |
Chg Shipments |
Chg |
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| 2d 02 | 2d 01 | bbls | % | 6mos 02 | 6mos 01 | bbls | % | 12mos 02 | % | |
| AB | 26,850 | 26,300 | 550 | 2.1 | 51,700 | 50,800 | 900 | 1.8 | 101,325 | 1.3 |
| Miller | 11,190 | 11,450 | -260 | -2.3 | 20,915 | 21,025 | -110 | -0.5 | 40,453 | -1.7 |
| Coors | 6,371 | 6,413 | -42 | -0.7 | 11,501 | 11,519 | -18 | -0.2 | 22,725 | -0.8 |
| Pabst | 2,490 | 2,600 | -110 | -4.2 | 4,640 | 4,800 | -160 | -3.3 | 9,190 | -6.6 |
| Other Dom | 3,679 | 3,712 | -33 | -0.9 | 6,904 | 6,761 | 143 | 2.1 | 12,362 | 0.7 |
| Dom Total | 50,360 | 50,265 | 95 | 0.2 | 95,250 | 94,515 | 735 | 0.8 | 185,235 | 0.2 |
| Imports | 6,700 | 6,283 | 417 | 6.6 | 11,974 | 11,262 | 712 | 6.3 | 22,603 | 5.5 |
| Total | 57,060 | 56,548 | 512 | 0.9 | 107,224 | 105,777 | 1,447 | 1.4 | 207,838 | 0.7 |
| (Exports) | 1,200 | 1,240 | -40 | -3.2 | 2,150 | 2,235 | -85 | -3.8 | 4,465 | -3.4 |
| US Total | 55,860 | 55,308 | 552 | 1.0 | 105,074 | 103,542 | 1,532 | 1.5 | 203,373 | 0.8 |
| Note: Brewer figures are shipments in US plus taxfree/exports. Coors excludes UK biz. | ||||||||||