Beer Marketer's Insights
Gov Signs Strong NY Franchise Bill
Gov Pataki signed one of countrys strongest beer franchise laws on Sep 19. Parties agreed to a "chapter" amendment down the road, but most important provisions remain. For example, a terminated distrib must get "fair-market value" for brand distribution rights. Law defines that as "amount a willing seller, under no compulsion" would accept and "amount a willing buyer, under no compulsion" would pay. Now a supplier policy of regional consolidation must be multi-state, reasonable, "essential" disclosed-in-writing, etc. And a supplier who wishes to terminate now must pay first, the so-called "pay to play" option. This franchise law is "first to make unqualified recognition that a distributor has a protectable property interest in distribution rights," sez consultant Mark Rodman. In last yr, 2 of 3 largest states, NY and Calif have expanded franchise protections for beer distribs. Gov signed bill just as more interesting developments near fruition regarding Heinekens NY metro distribution.
Beer sales perked up in Aug, at least in supers. Volume up 3.1% for 4 weeks thru Sep 2, sez IRI; $$ sales jumped 7.7%. Yr-to-date, volume up 1.3%, $$ sales up 6%. AB had best trend of top-3 brewers in Aug: volume up 3.3%, eking out 0.1 share gain. AB up 1.6% YTD. Miller trend improved: up 0.7%, for 4 weeks, still off 1.7% YTD. But Coors just even in Aug in supers, up 0.7% YTD. Imports up 7.3% in Aug, a point better than 6.3% gain YTD. Positive news for Pabst, Aug dropoff wasnt double-digits, but it was close, down 9.8%. What about hot Smirnoff Ice? Grabbed 1.1 share of volume in Aug and run-up to Labor Day, 1.9 share of $. YTD, Smirnoff Ice had 0.8 share of volume, 1.4 share of $$. Mike's Hard had a half-share of volume, 0.8 share of $$.
How’s Biz? Aug Shipments Off 0.3%; Imports Slowed; AB STRs Picked Up; Summer in Supers
Tho some feared ugly Aug taxpaid shipments dropoff since Aug 2000 was big gain, estimate came in down just 50,000 bbls, 0.3%, according to Matt Hein of Beer Inst. YTD taxpaid shipments off about 900,000 bbls, 0.7%. (INSIGHTS had reported bigger YTD dropoff thru Jul, but gotta note 2000 shipments total a moving target. It is constantly being revised as US govt updates "official" monthly figures for 2000.) And 12-mo taxpaid shipments down 2.2 mil bbls, 1.2% including tuff, tuff 9% drop in Dec 2000. Meanwhile, imports slowed in Jul: up 50,000 bbls, 2%; up 1.35 mil bbls, 11% YTD. If imports kept pace in Aug, means US beer biz up about 700,000 bbls, 0.5% thru Aug.
While domestic brewers shipments still sluggish, AB announced its sales-to-retailers (STR) trend improved: up 2.1% Jul thru Aug, up 0.9% YTD. Still expects 1.5% STR gain for full yr, which implies nearly 3% increase Sep-Dec. But that was before Sep 11, which puts all biz predictions/expectations on hold. Indeed, Heineken chairman said on Sep 12 he expected terrorist attacks to affect Heinekens 2d-half earnings because of potential impact on NYC mkt (especially on-premise), US $ and global economy. Finally, beer volume up 2.2% in supermkts for 13 wks thru Sep 2, according to IRI; $$ sales up healthy 7% same period. No sign of increased discounting. Avg price paid for beer in supers up 70 cents/case 4.5% during summer mos to $15.82.
Correction Plus: Pennsy Deals
T. A. Zullinger sold in Pennsy, but it wasn't a Bud distrib (see 2 issues ago). Several smaller AB deals in Pennsy in last several mos include Bonini Tobacco and Bradford City Beers each selling to Crescent Beer, which even after 2 acquisitions is still about 750,000 cases. And Marcineks sold to Kleckner.
Coors-Miller distrib consolidation move in Mo led to recent arbitration decision affirming Coors contract rights. Coors/Stroh distrib HL Paul got purchase offer last yr from Miller distrib Bluff City, but didnt meet with Coors to discuss potential sale, and "refused to engage in meaningful negotiations with Kohlfeld Distributing, the assignee of Coors rights," per Coors contract, wrote Mo arbitrator. These actions breached contract, he just ruled. Key point: Coors contract gives it exclusive first right to negotiate over sale of non-Coors brands as well as Coors brands, subject to other suppliers approval. "Any reasonable reading" of contract, arbitrator wrote, "shows that the term Sales Transaction had to mean something different from Coors Business only." HL Paul "reluctantly conceded this at the hearing." Some thought Coors right vis-?-vis competing brands could be challenged. Not so in Mo. What happens now? Arbitrator gave Kohlfeld 15 days to inform Paul it wants to buy biz and get info "subject to appropriate Confidentiality Agreement." Then Kohlfeld gets 30 days to make offer and Paul has to negotiate with Kohlfeld in good faith. Can still sell to Bluff City if Kohlfelds offer "not equivalent in price and other terms." If Paul accepts Bluff City offer, Coors has to consider Bluff Citys application to become Coors distrib "in good faith." At recent NBWA seminar, wholesaler atty Michael Dady said only clause in suppliers contracts near impossible to beat is arbitration clause. If its there, distribs will arbitrate, according to Michael. Elsewhere in Mo, Miller-Coors consolidation proceeds. Miller distrib in Joplin (Frank Evans Dist) merged with Coors distrib in Springfield (Clear Creek) to form The Beer Co.
Latest rounds in case that never ends: two Fla judges just took themselves out of any further Maris proceedings, including Judge "Buzzy" Green, who presided over state trial. Thats 3 judges who have quit the case so far. Means Fla has to find someone new to hear Maris defamation suit. Before leaving case, Judge Green took a few parting shots at Maris attys and referred a lengthy report detailing atty misconduct by both sides to Fla Bar Assn for sanctions. Judge Green didnt give reason why he jumped. Maris side had tried to get Green disqualified in late Aug, based on statements Judge made to and about Maris attys and for kicking lead Maris atty Willie Gary off the case. In his order sending atty misconduct charges to Fla Bar, Judge Green noted that attys for Maris and AB had been cited for contempt during trial. "The record is replete with inappropriate in-court conduct of counsel. By far the most egregious conduct was by [Maris] Attorneys Gary, McClellan and Socias," judge wrote. Court has "limited power" to sanction attys, he added, then whacked Maris attys again: "A fine or short period of confinement may well seem an acceptable price for someone seeking publicity, or in exchange for a large jury award." Maris attys focused on this statement as reason why Maris could not get fair hearing from Green. AB countered, arguing Maris motion wasnt timely, and was "transparent" tactic to help Maris appeal. Green denied motion, then left case.
Meanwhile, the "special master" appointed by the court to look into charges of atty wrongdoing on both sides filed report that concluded atty actions "irresponsible and unprofessional." His specific recommendations: 1) have Court admonish AB atty Peter Moll for not disclosing a dinner he hosted for some AB witnesses; 2) refer several actions by Maris attys Willie Gary and Madison McClellan to Fla Bar grievance committee, including "overstatement and misrepresentations" to court, "improper statements" to media, "defiance" of one of courts evidentiary rulings. Also ruled Court should use its "contempt power" to deal with Garys harassment of 1 witness, his "vulgarity" and violations during closing argument. After judge got this special masters report, he decided to just send it all off to Fla Bar Assn for "appropriate action."
Over last 5 yrs, distribs with over 50 share better able to hold down costs, maintain
higher profit per case and establish higher value than distribs under 30 share, annual
survey by broker/consultants Ippolito Christon shows. Chart below includes data from
survey of 60 distribs, about 6% of total beer volume in US in 2000; 2001 data estimated.
Note high-share distribs held operating expenses even 97-2001 while low-share distribs
faced 15-cent/case increase in operating expenses. Low-share distribs costs
per case were already higher. Meant hi-share distribs widened profit gap between them and
low-share distribs, even while low-share distribs had slightly higher gross profit per
case, presumably from high-end brands. High-share distribs had cash operating profits
nearly 30 cents/case, 40% higher than lo-share distribs.
Hi-Share Distribs (50%+) |
Low-Share Distribs (<30%) |
||||||||||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001E | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001E | ||
| Net Rev | 11.53 | 11.57 | 11.81 | 11.97 | 12.21 | 11.52 | 11.56 | 11.76 | 12.03 | 12.16 | |
| Cost of Goods | 8.61 | 8.74 | 8.92 | 9.03 | 9.20 | 8.69 | 8.66 | 8.81 | 9.02 | 9.12 | |
| Gross Profit | 2.92 | 2.83 | 2.89 | 2.94 | 3.01 | 2.83 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 3.01 | 3.04 | |
| Oper Expenses | 1.99 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 2.22 | 2.25 | 2.30 | |
| Cash Oper Profit | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.74 | |
Higher share means higher value, according to survey. High-share distribs had avg "enterprise value" per case of $5.89 in 2000, as calculated by Ippolito Christon, and value as multiple of EBITDA (earning before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of 6.5. For low-share distribs, value/case drops to $3.44, EBITDA multiple is 5X. Enterprise value is based on present value of "future cash flows" projected by IC and distrib mgmt, and utilizing "weighted average cost of capital" calculated by IC. Its also a value derived before any discounts for "lack of marketability," supplier control or other reasons. Note too: 38 of 60 distribs in IC survey are AB distribs.
Latest available state shipments data provides more detail on just what a difference Smirnoff Ice has made for Guinness Bass Import Co (GBIC) this yr. In 16 states with latest available datamostly thru Jun or Jul 2001-- GBICs total shipments doubled, up 294,000 bbls. These states accounted for just over 1/3 of total GBIC US volume in 2000. Look at these share gains Jan-Jun for GBIC: Mass, 2.6 to 3.9; Fla, 1.1 to 2.0; Ga, 1.3 to 2.0; Oh, 0.6 to 1.1. In Tex, GBIC went from 0.3 share to 1.4 thru Jul with 118,500-bbl, 326% jump. Smirnoff Ice shipped 126,000 bbls in Tex alone thru Jul, so other GBIC brands off slightly there. Other share gains for GBIC thru Jul: RI, 2.3 to 3.7; NH, 1.5 to 2.2; Me, 1.2 to 1.8; Ia, 0.3 to 0.8. What happened in ABs backyard? In Mo, GBIC up from 0.3 to 1.3 share with 29,000-bbl, 253% gain thru Aug. Jumped from #9 supplier to #5, leapfrogging Heineken, Barton, Seagram and Boulevard. In fact, Guinness gained 14,000 bbls more than AB in Mo YTD, tho AB at 65.6 share and climbing. At presstime, AB officially informed distribs of oft-rumored deal with Bacardi to intro "a new unique product in the growing flavored alcohol beverage segment."
Like many other bizzes, beer sales dropped immediately following Sep 11 terrorist attacks. And still hasnt come all the way back. Many urban areas heavily dependent on travel, tourism and conventions such as DC, NY, Vegas, Orlando etc are way off, especially on-premise. But off-premise trends look ok. Biz in supers nationwide actually up slightly (0.8%) in week that ended Sep 16, according to IRI. And convenience store volume up 0.5% for 2 weeks thru 9/22 according to ACNielsen data as provided by Miller. While catastrophic events of Sep 11 definitely hurt total sales right afterwards, biz gradually improving since, and its difficult to quantify how lasting or large any effect will be. Thats word among many that INSIGHTS talked to recently. Even before Sep 11, total US biz up just 0.5% or so in 2001.
Miller "Improving," Sez Bowlin, Tho Volume, Share Trends "Not Where They Should Be"
"Were starting to see the kinds of business results that indicate real progress," Miller sr veep mktg Bob Mikulay told Miller distribs in videotape of remarks prepared for NBWA but not delivered there because of Sep 11 attacks. Prexy John Bowlin, Bob and sr veep sales Jim Mortensen detailed some "summer successes" with core brands and display activity, but also noted lingering problems. "We have work to do" in Calif and Tex, John acknowledged, and convenience store and on-premise channels remain "opportunities." First the good news. Off-premise distribution increased Jan-Aug for each of Millers core brands (Miller Lite, MGD, Fosters and High Life/Light) by 4-5 pts, Jim said. For example, Lite increased from 79.7% to 84.2%. On-premise distribution jumped 1-3 pts for each core brand. Core brand sales trends improving at retail too, according to Nielsen figures. Up 0.5 share in summer compared to 0.2 share gain YTD, and compared to share losses last year. Miller and its distribs boosted "display penetration" and "feature ad penetration" over key summer holidays, closing gap between Miller and AB. Miller Lite has "momentum," said Bob. Volume up 2.9% YTD in supers, up 4.5% over summer, and Lite "beat all premium brands" in gains during summer holidays, according to Nielsen. Miller Genuine Draft had "difficult" 1st qtr, but up 0.9% in 2d qtr. Up 3% in summer supermkt sales volume; up 1.6% in that channel YTD. Held share while Bud lost 0.3 share. High Life brands up 8.5% in supers, +0.7% in c-stores and "gained on Busch." In all channels, High Life/Light up 2.6% YTD. Fosters trend picked up after "slow" start: down 2.4% in 1st qtr, but up 7.4% in 2d qtr and trend better than import category in supers over summer. The not-so good news. Decline of Millers non-core brands continues to bring down its overall trends. Miller total share off 0.4 in supers YTD (held even in summer), down 1.5 in convenience stores. Meanwhile, AB continues to score share gains (2-3 share) in c-stores. Fosters continues to lag way behind Corona and Heineken in display penetration. MGD has improved trend in c-stores, but still down.
Miller national media spending up 78% last 2 yrs and this type of "spending will continue into 2002," Bob promised. John said Miller has reduced SKUs 10% this yr on top of 20% reduction last year. After reducing inventories by 4 days last year, Miller committed to shave additional day per year for next 5 yrs. Workin with distribs to make target date for controlled temp warehouses (June 2002) a "reality." Summing up, John said Miller and its distribs are "focusing and executing better," that Miller advertising has "significantly improved" and that Millers relations with distributors "continue to improve," but that "volume and share performance are not yet where they should be."

