Beer Marketer's Insights
Evercore ISI's Robert Ottenstein had fireside chat with Molson Coors ceo Gavin Hattersley yesterday and wrote brief report. Gavin made important comment re MC thinking on pricing:"From our perspective," Gavin said "summer is tight for us," meaning supply. So "elevating demand through promotional activity for us is probably not something we would think about."
"Mountains are green for Molson Coors investors as the Coors Light parent rides the ongoing wave of backlash against its chief competitor, Anheuser-Busch," began Forbes article this afternoon. TAP stock up 28% since end of Mar, while ABI down 18%, noted mag. This week, Bank of America analyst Bryan Spillane moved from "sell" to "buy" rating on Molson Coors, predicting further upside, noted Forbes. And Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy raised his price target to $75, bumping its earnings estimate because of "longer duration of the Bud Light benefit."
Hurting AB Distribs Begin Layoffs
AB distribs began layoffs and/or early retirement programs in multiple mkts around US, several sources say, as sustained and ongoing steep Bud Light declines clobber their bottom lines. This is just beginning of economic consequences bound to expand unless there is a reversal in trend. More details in coming issues of INSIGHTS Express and flagship Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS.
The inability to project future cash flows amidst the current Bud Light crisis has thrown a monkey wrench into the distrib deal-making process, sez a source in that space. "I don't think there's a solution here. M&A coming to a screeching halt," continued that source. "AB buyers and sellers suddenly having a huge gap and MC distribs rethinking their own exit value," he added. Gotta note, INSIGHTS reported handful of distrib deals in last couple of mos, but each of those already in works prior to drastic mkt changes.
Apr Shipments Down ~6% with Taxpaids -4%, Imports -12%; Total Shipments -3.5% YTD; $$ Still Growin'
Beer/FMB/seltzer/cider shipments dropped 5.8% in Apr including domestic beer taxpaids down 4% and total imports (including non-alc, cider and perry, mead & not elsewhere specified or including products) slippin' 12% for the mo, according to data and estimates reported by Beer Inst. Suggests Apr shipments declined at a steeper rate than in natl scans as beer volume dipped just 2% for 4 wks thru Apr 30 in natl Circana multi-outlet + convenience channels. Could this be indicative of fallout and ripple effects from Bud Light situation on shipments, plus steeper drops in on-trade and more?
TreeHouse Foods is adding big increment of coffee roasting capacity with definitive deal to acquire 6-year-old plant in Northlake, Texas, from Farmer Brothers. THS will pay estimated $100 mil for plant that performs roasting, grinding, flavoring and blending, as well as Farmer's direct-ship coffee biz. Farmer Bros had long been key supplier of bulk ground coffee to TreeHouse, whose own capabilities are centered around single-serve pods and RTDs. Those roasting and grinding capabilities should "make us a more vertically integrated coffee manufacturer able to further penetrate this high-growth, high-margin category," while capturing a larger share of margin, said prexy/ceo Steve Oakland.
Houston-based Bayou City Hemp, which describes itself as "largest cannabis operator in Texas," is making like its bigger cannabis peer Tilray by fomenting acquisition that gets it into craft beer and spirits businesses. In Bayou City's case the target is Houston-based craft brewer, distiller and cannabis co 8th Wonder. So Bayou City now joins Tilray as only other sizable cannabiz that's actively acquiring in beer and bev spaces, as our sibling letter Craft Brew News observed today.
Founders of year-old Sayso biodegradable cocktail teabags have tweaked their concept in way that drastically lowers price even as they ride hot trend by adding espresso martini recipe next. Thru simple expedient of swapping 8-count box for 8-count pouch of type more commonly associated with formats like powder sticks, co has been able to drop price to $16 from $24. The pouches are made from post-consumer recycled materials.
As Bang Energy auction grinds along toward conclusion - delayed yet again from anticipated Thurs decision, we're hearing now - word has been that its rival Monster Beverage has been among the bidders. That makes ample sense: Monster's core green-claw line was disrupted by performance positioning of Bang (MNST responded with Reign), it's a key creditor to bankrupt brand, there's a grudge factor in commercial rivalry that ousted Bang ceo Jack Owoc escalated to personal level, and co is likely to go for relative peanuts to an energy giant that's sitting on $1.7 bil cash hoard. Monster Bev may covet Bang's versatile new plant in Ariz, too. Against that, bankruptcy court must weigh whether allowing #1 brand to acquire what until recently was #3 brand is anticompetitive, and likelihood that all the jobs at VPX besides those at the plant would vaporize under strategic that could integrate activities into its current org structure.
CBD player Centr Brands has been building initial head of steam on West Coast for pair of uninfused functional energy entries going out under names Centr Enhanced and Centr Enhanced + Caffeine. New entries (styled as CENTR) have entered early-adopter retailers like Berkeley Bowl, Molly Stone's, Draeger's Market and Bianchini's Market in Northern Calif; Mother's Market, Erewhon, Frazier Farms, Valley Farm and Jensen's Foods in Southern Calif, and about 100 7-Eleven stores in Seattle. It's adopted hybrid distribution strategy, balancing presence in broadline distributor KeHe with DSD partners like SF Naturals in NorCal and Seacoast in SoCal. Expansion is being overseen by sales vp Josh Rosinsky, enlisted early this year after 3-year run at cannabev player Sprig. He'd earlier worked at White Coffee, Aramark and Sipp.

