Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Folks can find several sweet deals on domestic lagers and beyond this Memorial Day holiday weekend, not just on Bud Light and Bud. In several big chains, INSIGHTS observed similar specials for MC top brands, either matching Bud Light or offering big discounts (but not as big) on different size packs. In MI Meijer outlet, Bud Light and Bud has $15 rebate for final price of $3.49 per 24pk vs Coors Light $5 rebate to $13.49 thru May 27. In NY-based Stop & Shop, Bud/Bud Light suitcases get $12.99 rebate for $9.99 total while Miller Lite/Coors Light 18s get $7 per 18pk to $11.99. And in NY-based Price Chopper, Bud/Bud Light 24pks with $15 rebate net out to just $4.99 per pack vs $12 off Miller Lite and Coors Light pks to $7.99 total. Kroger, Albertsons, Safeway, Hannaford and other chains are offering more standard discounts with all 3 megabrand light lagers in stores INSIGHTS saw.

Memphis-based Wiseacre launched rest of Florida, expanding into Central and Southern parts of state with small craft-focused statewide distrib Progressive. Focus remains on co's flagship Tiny Bomb Pilsner, just 2 other yr-round brands, plus seasonals and specialty releases. Expansion into rest of big state follows launches in WI and AZ earlier this yr, co's 20th state plus DC. Wiseacre also announced promotion of Amanda Thompson to COO role. After 7 yrs at co, she worked her way up from taproom bartender thru roles in admin, events, HR and operations, now overseeing large new facility co opened in downtown Memphis in 2020. Thru first qtr of this yr, total Wiseacre $$ up 9% in NielsenIQ off-premise scans, driven by Tiny Bomb. Co produced just south of 26,500 bbls in 2022, per Brewers Assn stats released today (see above), +9%.

FX Matt acquisition of Flying Dog Brewing (see last issue) came together very quickly, only initiating deal talks "a little before Nashville" Craft Brewers Conference, Matt prexy Fred Matt shared with CBN on joint call with newly promoted Flying Dog prexy Ben Savage. But JV on Right Coast Spirits plus pre-existing contract brewing relationship, with Matt already producing 20% of Flying Dog's volume, helped grease wheels even faster once deal talks began. They already "all talk quite frequently and get along," Fred added.

Industry shipments look notably softer than initial estimates suggested following latest TTB reports thru Q1 2023. Domestic brewer taxpaid shipments declined 3.3%, 1.26 mil bbls YTD thru Mar 2023. Bottles & cans continue to drive the decline, collectively down 3.5%, 1.2 mil bbls. But keg shipments from US brewers grew just 2.5% for the qtr after posting a 7% decline in Mar. And tax determined premise use (a good proxy for taprooms) sank 13% to 920K bbls for the qtr. That's gotta be one of, if not the steepest reported decline for taprooms since the craft beer boom. Keep in mind, smaller brewer shifts from quarterly to annual filing with TTB may be impacting trend negatively at this time. But taproom volume from those that file quarterly clearly soft to start the yr. And with craft brewers making up a much higher % of keg volume, craft segment remains disproportionately impacted by slower recovery.

Just 3 breweries crossed the 15K-bbl regional threshold for the first time in 2022, per stats and estimates posted in Brewers Assn's New Brewer May/Jun 2023 edition. That's far fewer than previous yrs, down from 12 net-new regionals in 2021 and at least 22 in 2019. It's also a sign of the times, with regional brewers "actively contracting," Bart reminded at CBC, collectively down 2% last yr in total.

Gorgie female-oriented energy drink made a bit of a splash at Expo West with story of how brand features were determined by base of 165K enthusiastic shoppers whom founder Michelle Cordeiro Grant had cultivated in her prior venture, Lively, which offered more comfortable undergarments for women (BBI, Mar 13). Somewhat in style of Mr Beast, whose followers have invaded Walmart stores to fix merchandising glitches, Michelle's acolytes have been zealous enough even to open some retail accts for brand.

KeHe Distributors, a key route to retail for food/bev brands but one that's been accused of exploitative behavior toward early-stage brands, is getting bigger. Naperville, Ill-based co said it's reached deal to acquire DPI Specialty Foods from PE shop Arbor Investments. DPI, based in Ontario, Calif, operates mainly out west out of West (including Texas and SW states), Northwest and Rocky Mtn divs, with heavy reach into foodservice. KeHe listed 2 key strategic benefits from deal. First, it expands portfolio of fresh foods. And it adds complementary set of over 1,000 DPI customers. KeHe, which was advised by BMO Capital Markets, said cos will continue to operate independently until regulatory approvals are received and closing occurs. As noted, tho KeHe has been part of successful growth paths for many bevcos, it's also been lightning rod for criticism of opaque billbacks, inconsistent ordering patterns and lack of accountability, most prominently by Genius Juice founder Alex Bayer, whose accounts on LinkedIn have drawn hundreds of comments (BBI, Feb 14 and May 16). For those drawn into the soap opera, Alex just offered "full scoop" on his ouster from distributor after going public with his complaints. KeHe hasn't publicly addressed the complaints that we're aware of, including to us.

Today marks one-year anniversary of when Honest Tea cofounder Seth Goldman learned from Coca-Cola that it was about to discontinue the organic brand it had acquired from him. In part not to leave the organic growers who relied on brand in the lurch, Goldman and his Honest Tea cofounder Barry Nalebuff sprung into action to launch a replacement brand called Just Ice Tea, with help of restaurateur Spike Mendelsohn, a partner in Goldman's Eat the Change CPG spinoff from his PLNT Burger eatery chain. (The Honest Tea trademark wasn't available because KO is continuing to make its Honest Kids juice bevs available.) In less than 4 months Just Ice Tea was hitting its first store shelves, a PLNT Burger outlet in NY, and Sprouts natural chain soon after. Remarkably, as Goldman heralded in celebratory post today, Just Ice Tea has soared to #1 rank among bottled tea brands in natural channel, per SPINS data. "And we haven't even started selling into national foodservice, drug, mass and convenience chains," he indicated. As reported, Just Ice Tea has been systematically replicating popular Honest Tea flavors via Mendelsohn-devised "recipes that made Honest Tea's greatest hits even better." Most of them have been demanded by consumers who miss Honest Tea. Honest Tea itself depleted its inventory over course of last year and is hardly seen any more.

Craft growth wasn't easy to come by last year, but a couple dozen mid-sized brewers found a way to hit doubles or better during very trying times. With full Brewers Assn 2020 dataset now available, zero in on the 15K to 50K-bbl range: mostly regional players with a strong distribution focus that don't quite make the BA's top-50 list (published earlier this yr, see Mar 30 CBN). As a group, all 15K-50K-bbl craft brewers shipped about 5% less beer in 2020 than they did in 2019, BA stats show. But 27 of 'em managed to grow double digits, collectively +34%. In a year when BA craft fell by a couple mil bbls, 9%, this group climbed 176K bbls to 700K bbls.

Who are these brewers? You know most of the names as fast-rising stars, locally-focused up-n-comers and some longtime regional growth drivers. But top o' the list is non-alc powerhouse Athletic Brewing, which quintupled to 37,500 bbls in 2020, BA data shows. Its 30K bbls of growth is almost double the volume added by next-biggest bbl-gainer, Octopi/Untitled Art, +81% to 35K bbls. Trio of East Coast players each added 10K bbls or more while dealing with Covid-induced disruptions. Cape May out of southern NJ jumped 52% to near 36K bbls. It's now easily #1 craft brewer in NJ, bigger than next two in-state players (Kane and Flying Fish) combined, per BA stats. Atlanta upstart Scofflaw gained over 11K bbls, 44% to over 37K bbls. And in Alexandria, VA, Aslin Beer more than doubled to 17,500 bbls, just passing other VA players Hardywood, Three Notch'd and Starr Hill, all in the 15K-17K-bbl range. That's 80K bbls of growth from 5 cos alone right there. 

The growth of these 5 players highlight what's working in craft these days. Most of 'em pretty young companies, 1st of all, as only Octopi over 10K bbls in 2016, Athletic didn't exist yet, and the 3 others totaled just 8K bbls that yr. The 5 totaled over 163K bbls last yr. Also can't escape role of on-site sales and shipping. Ability to ship its non-alc beers nationally a big chunk of Athletic's biz, natch. But Aslin also set up online ordering system for both pick-up and shipping, while Octopi/Untitled Art utilizes 3rd party Tavour app to gain broader reach. (Co just partnered with Sarene to distribute Untitled Art brands in NY/NJ.) Cape May digging deeper in and around NJ home (including with separate, owned distribution biz), while Scofflaw continues to attract folks in underdeveloped but fast-growing southeast. Style wise, hazy IPAs and fruited beers play key roles in many of their portfolios, tho a variety of lagers and classic styles also in the mix. And while BA asks brewers to tease out non-beer volume from these stats, gotta note that many of 'em also sell hard seltzer and other "beyond beer" options. Could that be providing a bit of a glow on core beers for these brewers, too? 

More Fast Growers from NY to CA, IL to TX  Four more fast growers over 40K bbls cover SoCal, Ohio, PacNW and New Mexico, all up 10-20% last yr. That's Belching Beaver, Fat Head's, Pelican and Santa Fe. So some of this growth from pretty established craft brewers. See also ME's Peak Organic, up an estimated 10% to about 20K bbls last yr, or WA's No-Li, +11% to over 17K bbls. Pair of fast-growing New York brewers, Sloop and Industrial Arts, each up around 30% to 34K bbls and 20K bbls, respectively. Brooklyn-based Other Half +18% and just ahead of IA. Vermont's Zero Gravity jumped 44% to 29K bbls after purchasing old Magic Hat brewery, while Maine's Lone Pine hit regional status at just over 15K bbls, +16%. 

Also reaching regional status for 1st time, Calif's Dust Bowl, Altamont and HenHouse each up double digits to 15K-17K bbls. Reuben's Brews grew 16% to 24K bbls in WA, while OR's Ecliptic hit an estimated 23K bbls, +10%. In CO, Denver Beer passed 25K bbls, +21%. Thru the middle of the country, Chicago's Maplewood climbed 37% to 16,500 bbls, while OK's Krebs/Choc also topped 16K bbls with 45% gain. On back of its pickle beer sensation, Tex's Martin House put up 2nd fastest growth rate in the bunch, +83% to near 20K bbls. And in southeast, GA's New Realm passed 20K bbls in year 3, +26% last yr, just ahead of NC's Sycamore, +42%. 

How Rare Was Regional Craft Growth?  To get a sense of just how few sizeable players grew thru the pandemic impacts of 2020, consider the 170-or-so BA-defined craft brewers with published volume over 15K bbls last yr. Just a third of them grew at all in 2020. Look at it another way: of the 182 craft brewers that size in 2019, fewer than 50, about a qtr of them, grew last yr. So plenty of craft players look at those easy comps (and thirst for on-premise pints, read on) and figure they can do better in 2021.

Claims of misleading labeling piled up quickly against Fireball flavored malt bevs and its maker Sazerac early this yr with at least 3 others popping up in fed cts in CA, MO and NY after IL suit filed in Jan. Last wk, judge in CA denied Sazerac's attempt to dismiss that case. Shortly after, initial IL suit, filed by well-known plaintiffs atty Spencer Sheehan, was dropped (recall, Sazerac fired back that Fireball FMB not even sold in IL and amended complaint asserted seemingly illicit sales near IN border). Similar issue in MO, where the malt version of Fireball minis also not available. That suit was also dropped just this morning. NY suit that tracks much closer to CA complaint, both prepared by other plaintiffs attys, still alive.