Beer Marketer's Insights
Bev alc e-commerce sales in tracked channels continue to level out following huge spike during the pandemic, Circana's Scott Scanlon presented at Beer Insights Spring Conference last week. Sales actually dipped 2% to $880.9 mil for latest 52 wks thru Apr 30, 2023 in Circana data. Notably, beer e-comm stalled at just 0.4% of total beer $$, Scott underscored. Comparatively, e-comm was 3% of wine and 2.5% of spirits $$ in these channels. But across the board, e-comm remains a "tiny" portion of total sales. "It is an opportunity area," but "it has not lifted" to "level that many…were touting" during the pandemic when "everyone was focused on it."
Bud Light still declining double-digits in virtually every state where INSIGHTS saw data for latest 1-wk ending May 14 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data. Its $$ declined 22% for the week nationally with most states down even steeper. AK and WY down more than 40% and big AB share states like MO, TN, LA, OK, MS and WV down 33-35% for the week. On the other end, Bud Light declines were notably less steep in mkts where AB has less share of beer overall such as: CA (-13%), WA (-14%), HI (-16%), and OR (-17%). Net-net, Bud Light saga has yet to show signs of improvement and sales trends continued to plummet in 2d half of May too, sources say.
As traditional lines between beverage categories blur, clear distinctions remain between their regulatory schemes, market structure and inter-tier power dynamics. "The conversations are happening" about whether state beer franchise laws should or could be extended to cover non-alc brands and suppliers, atty Dimitri Christopoulos shared during legal panel at last wk's Beer Insights Spring Conference. Those discussions are happening because beer distribs don't always feel fairly treated when NA brands exit, he explained. Things still feel fairly "fragmented" and legislative changes may not be quite ripe, Dimitri suggested. But if the "dynamic" in non-alc bevs becomes similar to when beer franchise laws were created to balance the power of small wholesalers against large beer suppliers, the question will be, "is there enough empathy" among state legislators for wholesalers, who "are very good at litigating issues in the state house," he reminded.
Innovation clearly less of a focal point in 2023. Yet several new brands stand out despite largely delayed shelf resets. Monster's The Beast Unleashed is top innovation yr-to-date, racking up $16.3 mil in sales on 427K cases (with limited distribution) in Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans thru May 7. Brand initially launched in just 6 states, ramping up en route to going natl. But compare to last yr, when multiple new brands topped those sales in 3 fewer wks. By Apr 17, 2022, Truly Marg Mix Pk already sold $49.4 mil YTD, as Bud Light Seltzer Hard Soda snagged $29.7 mil and BL Next notched $19.5 mil.
After seltzer-induced setbacks back in 2021, Mark Anthony is "back to growth!" exclaimed senior veep of insights Dan Wandel at Beer Insights Spring Conference in Chicago last week. Following 2% $$ gain in 2022, co posted 7% $$ gain YTD in 2023 and depletions grew 5% in Apr, Dan shared. At same time, Mark Anthony made notable changes to its mktg leadership this spring, hiring new global cmo Isabelle Sakai Apr 1 and appointing 13-yr vet Kevin Brady to lead mktg in US as previous cmo John Shea left. In this next era, co seeks "to build a Global Premium Drinks Business," and "particularly to build the seltzer category globally and differentiate White Claw as the original seltzer and clear category definer," prexy Phil Rosse explained to INSIGHTS via email.
Hurricane force of Bud Light backlash is leaving an awfully wide wake. Sure, AB volume was already down 4.2% in tracked Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans thru late Mar. But since boycott winds first formed, total AB volume fell 15% on avg each wk after Apr 9. Several suppliers pickin' up pieces. Three biggest beneficiaries up double-digits every wk in that timeframe: Yuengling volume up a whopping 30% on avg (also amid expansion to 3 new states), MC up ~11% per wk and Pabst +13%. These radically altered trends even more astonishing considering Yuengling down 8% YTD thru Mar 26, MC dropped 4% and Pabst flat. Can these cos keep up with demand? Fallout not fading so far. AB slipped slightly steeper -15.6% in latest wk thru May 14. Five cos' volumes were up double-digits same week, with MC and STZ each up 11%, Pabst +13%, Kirin-Lion +17% and Yuengling +38%.
Leading up to Memorial Day, Bud Light and total AB sales are still in an unprecedented deep hole. It is so far proving very difficult to dig out. Hits keep on coming, an oppressive accumulation of woes with no clear path forward yet.
RETAIL: Publix Pulling Plug on GreenWise Natural Banner, Folding It Back into Core Stores
When Texas grocer HEB saw Whole Foods emerging out of Austin back in mid-1990s, it responded with natural banner of its own, Central Market, that quickly became a coveted placement for natural and specialty brands seeking to crack Lone Star State. A similar experiment undertaken by Publix in its Southeastern territory is working out differently: Florida grocery giant confirmed to Tampa Bay Times last week that it's dropping its GreenWise natural banner from all 8 stores, which are being converted to traditional Publix stores.
There hasn't been much noise on CBD out of Washington since FDA announced in Jan that it wasn't ready to release long-awaited regulatory guidelines for food/bev products containing ingredient. As Marketing Daily noted today, "no matter how much research is conducted on the effects" of CBD, "the bottom line seems to be: There will always be health risks when it's added to food and beverages." With that understanding, Patrick Cournoyer, who runs FDA's Cannabis Product Committee, shared last week at Food & Drug Law Institute Conference that agency "envisions a 'harm reduction' framework through which consumers could make informed choices," wrote Marketing Daily. "What's envisioned here is really a harm reduction framework. The existing pathways that we have for foods and supplements don't really allow for risk or harm," as Cournoyer put it. "If it's shown to be harmful or we can't really show that it won't be harmful, then it's not allowed to be there," he added. "What we're [FDA] proposing here is a more permissive category where it is acknowledged that there's a risk here. We can't eliminate it, but we would view that people can make an informed choice," he summarized.
Deadline cleared yesterday for bids in bankruptcy of Bang Energy marketer VPX Sports, inaugurating complex phase of evaluating wide range of bidders, backers, structures and go-forward plans. At stake is fate of one-time #3 energy brand, but one that's been eroding at accelerating pace since Pepsi alliance unraveled, co got smacked with several adverse court rulings, founder/ceo Jack Owoc was pushed out and increasing # of retailers cut back on brand or bounced it entirely. We have no firm info on who submitted bids tho we've heard Monster Beverage is one of them. It's expected that winning bidder will be selected by next month, tho deal may take a while longer to close. It's no secret that time is of essence for eroding brand that was down 59.6% in $$ sales for latest 2-wk period in Nielsen scans, as tracked by Goldman Sachs. Still, 52-week sales total is $824.3 mil, #4 behind Monster, Red Bull and Celsius, and many wholesalers who've seen Celsius and C4 exit beer houses for soft drink systems view it as helpful in filling void, at least until next flock of up-&-comers hits that level of scale.

