Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Another inevitability, perhaps, and another step in long legal road seemingly still ahead in heated dispute between ABI Mexican-arm Modelo and Constellation. ABI will appeal both jury's decision for Constellation handed down 2 mos ago as well as Judge Kaplan's denial of co's motion for judgment as a matter of law last mo. It notified court of pending appeal before the 2nd Circuit on Friday. Very brief notice also notes possibility it will seek review of the judge's Dec decision not to rule in ABI's favor, sending dispute to trial.

Who's next? Some of same conservative social media influencers to first tweet their ire about Dylan Mulvaney's sponsored Bud Light post are at it again today, this time taking Miller Lite and Molson Coors to task for alleged corporate "wokeness." Ad in question? The 90-second spot featuring comedian Ilana Glazer released over 2 mos ago for Intl Women's Day. Recall, in ad, Ilana explains Miller Lite effort to collect "Bad $#!T," or decades of "old sexist beer ads" and mktg materials, to turn it into "Good $#!T," or compost for fertilizer.

Tho many boycotts reportedly end within a month or so, this one is not yet losing any steam and in fact has spread to others (see below). Bud Light volume continued to crash in early May. Down 27.7%, 1.1 mil cases for 1 week thru May 6 in NielsenIQ data from Bump Williams Consulting. Bud Light now down 25.5%, 4.1 mil cases for the last 4 weeks. "This seems to be where the brand's weekly declines have started to settle," BWC veep Dave Williams said, wondering if this is a "'floor'… unless something drastic changes." Tho this is a "mighty weekly drop…the acceleration of the declines seems to be slowing down," added Dave. Bud Light volume down 6.9 mil cases, 10% yr-to-date.

Authors of a recent meta-analysis finding neither significant harm nor significant protective effects for light-to-moderate drinking committed some familiar scientific sins, according to an extensive critique by the Intl Scientific Forum on Alcohol Research (ISFAR). In addition to the disconnects between the data and the discussion in that study, picked up by AII, ISFAR commentary points to "cherry-picking" problems and other issues with the meta-analysis. Right on cue, these calls of 'bad science' were quickly followed by claims of 'tainted science' in a lengthy Slate article painting "Big Alcohol" as the real culprit.

Riding continued strong distribution and sales growth, Waterloo Sparkling Water has inaugurated new phase of its "Water Down Nothing" campaign that equates the bevs' bold flavors with users' bold personal expression.

Beer & spirits giant Constellation Brands made a move into alc-alternatives with minority investment in Tost, a sparkling bev whose launch preceded the recent wave of new entries. It launched back in 2016 with ginger-inflected prosecco alternative (BBI, Nov 2 2018), quickly added a rose-style entry and now is sold in 40 states and 7 overseas markets, per STZ announcement. Among its key differentiators, it's made without alcoholic fermentation at any stage and is able to play in alcohol-free venues that don't allow even the 0.5% trace amounts found in brands labeled as non-alcoholic. Constellation's investment "allows us to continue to optimize our higher-end portfolio by providing an alcohol-free beverage with a complex flavor profile for consumers that complements their lifestyle across a variety of occasions," said Mallika Monteiro, evp and chief growth, strategy & digital officer for Constellation, which made investment via its venture capital group, which has had involvement in NA entries like Karma Wellness Water, BioSteel hydration drinks and Hop WTR sparkling water. Note that Tost styles itself as "TÖST" with Haagen-Dazs-style diacritical marks, tho it's based in Vermont. Tho it made a splash early on, winning Sofi award from Specialty Food Assn as a "specialty outstanding food innovation," its ceo Brooks Addington has been content to build brand deliberately and stay out of spotlight. (Exhibiting at Expo West in Mar, Tost employee declined to comment on brand's recent activities.)

Westrock Coffee rode out some production snafus - one of them externally imposed, another partly self-inflicted - to produce a 10% increase in net sales to $205.4 mil in its first qtr while pushing forward on its new flagship plant in Conway, Ark. Discussing the glitches on investor call yesterday afternoon, cofounder/ceo Scott Ford uttered one of the more unvarnished mea culpas we've ever heard from a c-suite exec on way to assuring listeners that crises are behind WEST and senior team now can focus on making sure Conway delivers as promised. Recall that Westrock went public a year ago as a way to raise the capital it needed to erect that coffee extract and RTD plant, which is due to go live early in 2024. Fundamental strategy is to move beyond the hot black coffee that long comprised core of biz to higher-value segments like pods and cold extracts, using ingredients biz to win downstream jobs at copacking end that Conway can fulfill.

Intensifying its CPG push, Black Rifle Coffee Co will launch its first promos behind its RTDs in convenience stores and its bagged coffees at Walmart, BRCC execs said yesterday in reporting robust Q1 that saw overall 27% revenue rise to $83.49 mil. Co also is upping its game on marketing side with recruitment as cmo of longtime Mars exec Chris Mondzelewski, who'd most recently served as chief growth officer for $12 bil global pet care biz. As BRCC brass framed it, Mondzelewski brings expertise to help co navigate CPG world that abruptly became its core focus a year ago even as he helps it navigate more challenging DTC channel, initially its core biz. Like rest of leadership team at mission-driven co that seeks to support vets and first responders, Mondzelewski has military background as ex-Marine.

In-person interactions and dependable analysis of the latest news and numbers are crucial tools in times of great upheaval. Join us next week for the Beer Insights Spring Conference in Chicago to learn and connect with other US beer industry execs and thought leaders. Those learnings and connections are more valuable than ever at this moment of hyper-fast change.

The magnitude of the impact of the Bud Light controversy remains extraordinary. While the brand has dropped volume by about 25% for each of the last 3 weeks in available scan data (thru Apr 30), and total AB down double digits, AB is so large that multiple competitors have had hugely positive shifts in their trends from the fallout. Especially Molson Coors, Pabst and Yuengling. The whole domestic competitive landscape shifted just like that. Big question is how long it lasts.