Beer Marketer's Insights
In deal that reflects big brewers' health & wellness aspirations, Japanese giant Kirin is spending $1.3 bil to acquire Australia's largest vitamin company, Blackmores, per Financial Times and other outlets. Blackmores approved Kirin's offer of A$95 per share, "an almost 24% premium to the shares' closing price on Wednesday," article noted.
Montreal-based Davids Tea suffered some reverses in its effort to pivot from retailer to CPG co, reporting 21.4% sales decline to C$31.4 mil in its Q4 "as rising inflation and higher interest rates significantly reduced customer demand," per ceo/chief brand officer Sarah Segal. Gross margin contracted to 27.4% in Q4 from 38.5% a year earlier. Operating loss widened to $3.32 mil from $1.31 mil. For full year sales sagged 20.2% $83.0 mil, -18% in core Canadian market, -28.8% in US, where co has shut all its stores. Co had signaled in Feb that period might be challenged, and it's implementing a cost-containment plan that should cut cost base $8-10 mil on an annual basis . . . Ardagh Metal Packaging delivered steady Q1, weathering weakness in Brazil to report 1% revenue decline to $1.13 bil, +2% excluding foreign exchange distortions. As with Crown Holdings earlier this week, ceo Oliver Graham longed for acceleration in bev promos at retail, saying, "we are encouraged by signs of a return of promotional activity, and the easing of customer inflationary pressures. This supports our expectation for a stronger second half demand outlook." In Americas segment, revenue edged up 1% to $645 mil thanks to "favorable volume/mix impacts, partly offset by lower metal cost pass-through."
Wawa and QuikTrip this week became first privately held US-based C&G players to hit 1,000-store mark and the 7th and 8th c-store operators to reach that mark, C-Store Dive tallied. Wawa's newest store opened in Oaklyn, NJ. QuikTrip is adding a store in Converse, Texas, milestone celebrated with release of 1,000 non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Founded in 1958, QT now operates stores spanning 17 states, while Wawa was founded in 1964 and plays in Penn, NJ, Dela, Maryland, Virginia, Florida and DC, with expansion plans for NC, Tenn, Georgia, Ohio, Ind, Ala and Kentucky . . . The acquisitive Majors Management, which over past 3 years has undertaken 18 acquisitions spanning 14 states, has reached deal to acquire 300-unit Mapco Express chain from its South American parent Copec, with Circle K operator Alimentation Couche-Tard picking up 112 of Mapco's company-owned sites in Tenn, Ala, Kentucky and Georgia.
Riding the deep cred they'd established via launch of Muscle Milk protein shakes, family of brand founder Greg Pickett last year returned to RTDs with line of CBD-infused energy drinks called Gym Weed (BBI, Jun 27). Operating under name Alternative Biologics, they say Gym Weed has done well in endemic channel in the dozen or so hemp-friendly states, landing such key partners as Crunch gyms, but now they're ready to go much broader with Energy + Adaptogens line that essentially swaps out the hemp for ashwagandha while otherwise maintaining robust ingredient bill of Gym Weed Hemp. To orchestrate push, Pickett's daughter Nikki Brown, serving as ceo, and longtime ally Shane McCassy, as prexy, have recruited pair of seasoned new-age vets: John Blair, who had 6-year run at Muscle Milk prior to its 2014 exit to PepsiCo, and Marty Jay Zirofsky, a colleague of Blair's at several past ventures who's familiar with space from earlier runs at New Whey and Sportwater. Most recently, MJ's been helping ignite explosively growing Alani Nu and Prime Hydration brands at Congo Brands. Team has signed Morris and Saccani houses as partners in Northern Calif and McCassy said discussions are in progress with dozens of others as Gym Weed seeks to erect national network to support launch. Line has trickled out to a few hundred NY accounts via endemic players like NY Barbell.
Control State Volume Off Slightly Again in Mar and for 12 Mos as $$ Up 2-3% on Modest Pricing
Spirits sales in control states slipped just 0.2% by volume in March, NABCA reported this morn. Only slightly better than 0.4% decline for 12 mos and a notable improvement from Feb. With price/mix up around 3%, total $$ up 3.1% for the mo. That's about a pt better than 12-mo trend, +2.4%. Cases of cocktails jumped 18% in Mar, picked up 0.7 share of control state spirits volume to 4.2. So for 12 mos, the segment hit 5 share of spirits for 1st time in these states. Cocktail volume growth in Mar quite a bit slower than 12-mo trend (+29%) and share gain (+1.1).
Analysts Share Cloudy Outlooks on SAM
Wall St analysts remained skeptical of Boston Beer's outlook after Q1 earnings, citing uncertainty about Truly's trajectory and SAM's ability to get back to ~50% gross margins in next several yrs. "A tough start to the year," headlined Goldman Sachs' Bonnie Herzog, and "still more questions than answers," added Bernstein's Nadine Sarwat. Namely: "when will Truly hit bottom" and "what level of gross margin expansion can investors realistically expect?" They each pointed to poor visibility on Truly's path to stabilization, plus concerns about medium-term gross margin miss. Morgan Stanley's Eric Serotta reiterated the sentiment, given "increased complexity" in the biz, shortfall fees from 3rd-party volume commitments and continued volume deleveraging. Tho SAM stock up 1% today at press time, all 3 analysts maintained a sell rating.
In the midst of massive mkt shifts for industry's largest brand Bud Light in recent weeks, "I don't think it's really had an effect on our business, our portfolio," and "kind of hoping it doesn't," Boston Beer chairman Jim Koch reflected during Q1 conference call Q&A. "I don't think anybody in the beer business wants to profit from the misfortune of others, but from the fruits of our own labors." Yet sizable impacts are very much "real," wholesalers confirmed to Jim recently. "We've all had missteps. I've had mine." And "we've all recovered from them without any permanent damage." But "this is a first," and "I don't really know what the duration is going to be," said Jim. "Maybe in this more polarized society" amplified by social media, this reflects "a new phenomenon," he wondered. But "I don't know."
Chicago-Area AB and MC Distribs Dish on Bud Light Dynamics with Wells Fargo's Chris Carey
Following pronounced share shifts in wake of Bud Light backlash, will US beer dynamics soon stabilize? Wells Fargo's Chris Carey chatted with 2 Chicago-based beer distribs, 1 AB and 1 MC, to get the lay of the land as latest sales swings were "top of mind for both." But neither saw the situation as "constructive for the category," wrote Chris, with the share-gaining MC distrib "not reveling in the newfound success (and unsure how long it will last), and the share loser frustrated by the situation (and resigned to a view it'll probably last longer than many think)."
Boston Beer's results continue to rely most on the balancing act between Twisted Tea growth and Truly hard seltzer declines. Execs expressed confidence co can hit midpoint of its guidance (down 2-8%) even if Truly hard seltzer portfolio remains as soft (volume -31% in Q1 Circana/IRI channels) thru remainder of the year and Twisted Tea slows down from big start (+26%). "Where we land within that [guidance] range" depends on the broader economic environment and consumer demand in peak summer season, ceo Dave Burwick commented. Boston expects beer-centric hard seltzers to decline mid-to-high teens (5 pts better with spirits-based seltzers) and Truly to continue losing share of segment. "We're obviously working to do a lot better than that...but it doesn't have to happen" this yr.
NBWA's April Beer Purchasers' Index "shows a slight deterioration" to 49, "just below the expansionary benchmark of 50," it said, adding "this represents a step back" from last 2 mos. BPI at 50 or above last 2 mos, following 8 straight months of declines. Meanwhile, at risk inventories are going up, with an Apr reading of 55. "The data suggests that beer purchasers are taking a more cautious approach to ordering" in 2d qtr so far, with NBWA citing "economic uncertainty" plus a "milder and wetter" spring.

