Beer Marketer's Insights
Throwback Thursday
This week in 1974, INSIGHTS reported Miller Brewing struck deal to import Lowenbrau brand on West Coast only but with agreement to spread nationwide by 1980. That was surprising news to well-known businessman Dieter Holterbosch whose father began importing brand into US back in 1933. His co controlled 80% of Lowenbrau imports into US prior yr. He hired top firm Sullivan and Cromwell to sue Miller, Philip Morris and Lowenbrau for a total of $135 mil. Miller started importing Lowenbrau by 1975 and a few yrs later made controversial decision to brew the brand here in US which led to AB pointing out to regulators and consumers alike that Lowenbrau was no longer an imported beer.
Japanese brewer Kirin's next big acquisition won't be in beer. The parent co of New Belgium and Bell's, among other entities, will spend $1.3 bil to acquire Australia's largest vitamin company called Blackmores, reported Financial Times among others. (Well above what Kirin paid for New Belgium and Bell's combined.) Blackmores approved Kirin's offer of A$95 per share, "an almost 24 per cent premium to the share's closing price on Wednesday," article noted. Recall, Kirin has sizable presence in Australia's beer biz thru Lion Nathan Brewery and Kirin already has sizable pharmaceutical biz, but that's reportedly down by over 1/3 domestically in Japan since 1994. Health sciences biz generated about $770 mil USD and posted an operating loss of ~$50 mil in 2022 for Kirin Holdings. Total Kirin Holdings grew revs 9% to $14.86 bil USD and profits more than doubled to $1.07 bil.
Carlsberg Volumes +2%, Revs +14% on Strong Price Mix; Narrowed FY Guidance but Higher Costs
Carlsberg exceeded analysts' expectations in Q1 2023, posting organic volume growth of 2.1% with organic revenues up 14.2%. Strong improvement in revenue per hectolitre (+12%) covered the Danish co's "significant" cost increases, Carlsberg noted in earnings. And #3 global brewer narrowed its full-yr earnings guidance, now estimating organic oper profit at -2% to +5% (previously -5% to +5%).
Several states where AB holds its highest share of beer saw biggest negative swings in trend on Bud Light in recent weeks, Circana/IRI data seen by INSIGHTS shows. Louisiana saw biggest trend change and steepest decline rate for latest 1-wk ending Apr 16 vs YTD as Bud Light dropped 35.5% for 1-wk vs -8.7% YTD. That's a 27-pt change in trend. Five other states saw 20-pt trend swings or bigger: WV, KS, SC, GA, OK. Bud Light declined between 25% and 29% for the week in those states, posting tuffer drops than natl avg. And another 13 states saw trend worsen between 16 to 20 pts vs YTD, including NE, FL and VA by over 19 pts, NC, IN and OH by 18+ pts, AZ, AL, TX and ME by 17+ pts, and MI, NH and KY at 16+ pts. Most of those states saw Bud Light 1-wk sales decline in the low-to-mid 20% range, with MI (-16%), TX (-17%) and NE (-19%) a bit better and ME (-34%) and NH (-27%) down at steeper rates. But trends are tuff thruout US.
Boston Has 14 of Top-100 Beer Brands with New Top Tier While Boston Beer volume dropped 7%, $$ dipped just 0.8% with avg price/case up 6.6% YTD thru Mar 26 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data (not including spirit-based brands). Trends were similar for last 3 wks thru Apr 16 too. Twisted Tea family and Truly essentially flipflopped positions within the portfolio as Twisted grew 34% and Truly dropped 26.6%. Twisted leapt to 46% of Boston's $$ sales YTD thru Mar 26 vs just 34% same period year ago. Truly dropped from 46% to 34% of sales. With Angry Orchard still around 8% of the mix and Hard MTN Dew and other smaller FMBs over 2% of sales, that leaves just about 10% of sales for craft beer brands including around 8% from Sam Adams brand that originally built the co.
Twisted Tea Has 3 of Top-4 Boston Brands; Twisted Party Pk Bigger than Any Truly Pk/Brand Even with all the ups and downs, Boston still has 14 of top-100 beer brands (by $$) tracked by Circana in Q1. But its top tier brands changed dramatically amid Truly's tumble. Twisted Tea currently accounts for 3 of Boston's top-4 brands by $$ and Angry Orchard Crisp Apple is back to its #3 brand as sales grew 3% YTD. Twisted Tea Original is Boston's #1 brand by far and the 12th largest beer brand overall by $$. Ahead of Miller High Life and Keystone Light and gaining ground on Busch original. Twisted Tea Half & Half is Boston's 2d largest brand in scans and #28 overall, larger than Corona Premier, New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, White Claw Variety Pk #2 and Mike's Harder Lemonade among others. And remarkably, Twisted Tea Party Pack, up 125%, is now Boston's #4 brand in scans YTD. Bigger than any Truly pack.
Top Truly Packs All Down Double-Digits 'Cept Berry; Twisted Peach & Raspberry Rising Too Meanwhile, Truly Lemonade (-23%), Berry (-16%), Punch (-26%) and Margarita (-62%) mix pks all down steep double-digits, down to Boston's #5-8 brands in scans. And Truly Wild Berry (-0.4%) and Tropical mix pk (-31%) were Boston's #11 and #12 brands YTD as Wild Berry stabilized most among top Truly flavors since refresh.Twisted Tea Peach Hard Iced tea flavor (+45%) became Boston's 9th largest brand, currently ahead of Sam Seasonal (before bigger bump in fall with Octoberfest). And Twisted Tea Raspberry is Boston's #14 brand by $$ and now a top-100 beer brand overall. Only slightly behind Sam Adams Boston Lager in scans.
Boston Shipments Down 7.6%, Depletions Down 6%, Revs -4.7%; Operating Loss; Unchanged Guidance
Well, it wasn't a great qtr, but at least Boston shipments did not do worse than its guidance, tho co missed on earnings. Boston Beer shipments dropped 126K bbls, 7.6% to 1.58 mil bbls, while its depletions down 6% (depletions continued down 6% thru mid-Apr). Revs dipped $20 mil, 4.7%. Yet Boston swung back to a loss on the operating line, -$14 million. And that's really from a loss of operating leverage as revs declined and costs stayed relatively under control. The loss seemingly weighing on investors as stock dropped 3% so far in after-hours trading. Still, Boston stuck with its guidance of -2 to -8% for both shipments and depletions and expects to remain at the low-end of its guidance thru 1st half. Implies a fairly wide range of potential outcomes for 2d half of yr.
Join us for the 2023 Beer Insights Spring Conference, coming up May 17-18 at the Four Seasons Chicago. Our jam-packed agenda will feature a "Blunt Talk on Non-Alc Bevs" panel including: Chris Hall, CEO, Poppi; Ken Sadowsky, Executive Advisor, "The Beverage Whisperer"; Tom Hicks, CEO, Zico Rising; ex-Monster Bev along with BBI Editor Gerry Khermouch.
The annual Beverage Forum hits Chicago next week, Tues & Wed, with speaker roster that on NA side includes Polar Beverages prexy/ceo Ralph Crowley, KDP prexy Andrew Archambault and cmo Andrew Springate, Coca-Cola new revenue streams chief Dan White and Athletic Brewing cofounder Bill Shufelt. Among early-stage brands that will be on podium at Westin River North are Ghost Energy (via cofounder Dan Lourenco), Path Water (cofounder Shadi Bakour), Chamberlain Coffee (ceo Chris Gallant), Poppi (cofounder Allison Ellsworth) and Plezi kids line (ceo Leah Dunmore). Alc side will boast movers & shakers like Boston Beer founder Jim Koch, Constellation ceo Bill Newlands, Diageo N Amer ceo Claudia Schubert. Co-hosts Beverage Marketing Corp and Beverage Marketing mag say registration is still open, with walk-in registrants welcome. We hope to bring you coverage from event.
Oatly has traversed another rite of passage with its first airline deal. Sweden-based oamilk pioneer said its canned Oatly Caffe Latte entry will be available for purchase aboard Swiss Air flights. The entry uses organic coffee extract made from Fairtrade-certified Arabica beans along with co's organic oatmilk . . . PepsiCo's Rockstar Energy has added new twist to "Fuel what's next" campaign inaugurated last Nov, now partnering with PUBG Mobile game with brand partner Angus Cloud getting starring role. Brand taps Cloud's fashion cred for his What's Next Set featuring gold puffer jacket, black hat and shades. Entrants in "What's Next In-Game Challenge" get 4 weeks to unlock in-game rewards and Rockstar-themed items, with grand prize of Rockstar Energy Polaris Slingshot valued at $38K. Effort kicks off today with livestream featuring performance from rapper Dan Toliver . . . Monster Energy has come aboard as official energy drink of Call of Duty League thru remainder of 2023 season headed toward Championships Weekend in Las Vegas in Jun and for all of '24. Activation nodes will include Monster Matchup of each day's most exciting faceoff, Monster Energy Pre-Game where expert breaks down keys to success, and Monster Energy Winner Spotlight. Move caps nearly a decade of brand's involvement in CoD; it's sponsor of one-time champ Tyler "TeePee" Polchow.
Heartland-oriented Bucked Up energy brand has entered thermogenic space, with Orem, Utah-based supplement marketer harnessing its LFG Burn pre-workout powder for use in fat-burning extension of its 16-oz canned line. Sucralose-sweetened zero-sugar LFG Burn offers modest hit of 160 mg of caffeine, in contrast to core 300 mg line, along with taurine and L-tyrosine, as well as ingredients, like Grains of Paradise and L-baiba to obtain fat-burning function. It's debuting in Watermelon, Apple Orchard and Cherry Blast flavors. At same time, Bucked Up has expanded its core black-can line with 4 candy-inspired flavors: Sour Bucks (based on sour pre-workout powder), Cherry Candy, White Gummy Deer and pineapple-inflected Breezy Blast. Like existing entries Rocket Pop, Blood Raz and Mango Tango, it includes 300 mg of natural caffeine, Dynamine, Teacrine and Huperzine . . . Fevertree Plc continues to tailor its Fever-Tree mixer brand to US cocktail preferences, now launching bottled entries to sate Americans' thirst for margaritas and bloody Marys. Packed in 750-ml bottles, the line is being offered in Classic Bloody Mary Mix, Classic Margarita Mix and Light Margarita Mix using limes and agave from Mexico, Calif-grown tomatoes and Spanish sea salt. The Light entry comes in at 50 calories per 4-oz serving. London-based Fevertree, of course, is best known for its sparkling tonic waters serving UK's gin & tonic occasions but its growth hopes in US have forced it to diversify base. Recall that, without fanfare, it acquired US-based Powell & Mahoney last fall (BBI, Sep 13 and 14) and it seems likely this launch reflects that unit's strengths . . . Danone's 30-year-old So Delicious Dairy Free brand is making its first foray into burgeoning oatmilk segment with Organic Oatmilk offered in Original and Extra Creamy versions. It's going out at SRP of $5.99 per 59-oz resealable gabletop carton at retail.

