Beer Marketer's Insights
The craft cognoscenti has wished for, hinted at or outright promised "the year of the lager" for a long time now without any major change to show for it. Off-premise data continues to detail IPA's growing dominance in craft. But over the last year or so, anecdotal reports suggest that slowly, but surely, things are shifting in taprooms and the on-premise. And early this year, a slew of announcements from small brewers suggest a clear shift in their attention as they push out their own versions of on straightforward American lagers, light-bodied ales and beers more simply described as just "beer."
Fragmented Growth for Goldens, Lights & Lagers: Lotsa Little Pils Pick Up A Bit in Scans, Per BWC
Just one style that isn't an IPA and has over 1 share of craft $$ posted a yr-to-date gain in NielsenIQ off-premise scans reported by Bump Williams Consulting this wk. Craft pilsners collectively grew a slight 1.2% in the 1st qtr across all-outlet + liquor plus + convenience channels. Not quite enough to grab even 0.1 share of craft, but in soft segment, growth is growth.
While much of the available tracked data suggested craft brewers were soft in 2022 vs 2021, BA craft production was flattish at 24.3 mil bbls in 2022, Brewers Assn chief economist Bart Watson estimated in org's annual production report release today. So BA craft mkt share of core beer (excluding FMB, hard seltzer, cider, etc) rose slightly to 13.2 vs 13.1 in 2021, org figures. And as sales moved more toward on-premise and own-premise, craft dollar sales rose 6% to $28.46 bil, representing 24.6 mkt share of total beer (excluding FMB, hard seltzer, hard cider). Growth largely due to price increases, "share shift to smaller brewers," and "continued channel shift back to on-premise, which has a higher average retail value," Bart explained.
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Constellation Investing ~$1.2 Bil in Mexico Facilities This Fiscal Yr; Eyeing 4th Brewery?
Amid Constellation's planned $5-$5.5 bil capex to add 20+ mil bbls of capacity over 4 yrs (thru early 2026), co will invest ~$1.2 bil in its Mexico facilities during current fiscal yr ended Feb 2024. That figure will help fund new brewery in southeastern Veracruz to replace previously planned Mexicali facility just south of the US border, Mexico News Daily reports. But STZ is also adding 5 mil hectoliters (~4.2 mil bbls) of capacity in both Nava and Obregon this yr, per co's CAGNY 2023 presentation, in part by relocating equipment planned for Mexicali. The brewery "intends to maintain high levels of investment in Mexico for the next two fiscal years, with a total spend of up to US $4.5 billion," article notes, adding that Constellation is also "considering additional sites for a planned fourth brewery."
Late last yr, 6 Republican Congresspeople from Georgia shared concerns with TTB about "partnerships between familiar soft drink brands and alcoholic beverage producers." That followed letter from pair of Democrats sent last Nov. The reps from GA referenced actions aiming to block Pepsi from establishing Blue Cloud distribs in their own state among others. They share a "serious concern" that big soda cos could "bypass" fed prohibitions against slotting fees "if enforcement is inconsistent and ill-adapted to address their entry into the alcohol market."
When it rains it pours. Yesterday, America First Legal, led by former Trump adviser Stephen Miller, filed complaint with St Lou office of US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. It asked for investigation into AB hiring practices that "prioritized minorities." Is the timing coincidence, or is this somehow coordinated with the orchestrated outrage over AB's "woke" promotion with Dylan Mulvaney?
In brief text order issued late last wk, Judge Lewis Kaplan denied ABI subsidiary Modelo's attempt to reverse what it viewed as the jury's "inexplicable" and "unsupportable" verdict in favor of Constellation after trial last mo. By denying the co's motion for a judgment contrary to that verdict, Judge Kaplan clearly disagreed with ABI's assertion that Constellation offered insufficient evidence in support of its arguments. Recall, ABI also sought a new trial if judge unwilling to grant a judgment in its favor. Will he be any more likely to grant that request, given his frequent suggestion that tactics by attys on each side were a "waste of time"?
Molson Coors will bring a 3d Coca-Cola brand into the beer/FMB space. It will launch Peace Hard Tea this Sep, a non-carbonated 5% ABV bev sold in 24oz single-serve cans in lemon, peach and raspberry flavors, co announced on its blog today. Notably, Peace Tea non-alc brand is the smallest brand by far that Coke's lookin' to test in the alc bev aisle. The brand was developed by Monster initially before transferring to Coca-Cola's portfolio via 2014 brand swap, our sibling pub Beverage Business INSIGHTS previously reported. It's referred to as a "fruit forward iced tea beverage known for its vibrant flavors and free-spirited branding that's proved popular among legal-age Gen Z consumers, particularly in the Southeast," per MC blog.
Bud Light "Microcosm of America 2023," Sez Axios; 5600 Articles; Repub Prexy Prospects Say Boycott
"Few events capture so perfectly the cultural, political and social toxicity of America as the Great Bud Light Debacle of 2023," wrote Axios AM this morning. Believe it or not, "5,600 news articles were published about the controversy in two weeks" receiving over 6 mil social interactions, said NewsWhip data. What this "captures," according to Axios: "1. The inflamed politics around transgender rights. 2. The lack of perspective or grace from vocal transgender opponents. 3. The speed of viral vitriol. 4. The speed of efforts to capitalize off viral vitriol. 5. The unpreparedness of companies to respond to social media uprisings."

