Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Australian Competition and Consumer Comm (ACCC) cleared Asahi purchase of AB InBev's Carlton and United biz there, $11 bil deal struck last Jul. Last hurdle is Foreign Investment Review Board, tho "we don't expect any material delay in receiving FIRB approval," Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling wrote today. So closing on tap for Q2. As expected, ACCC required Asahi to divest a few cider brands (including Strongbow), plus ABI beers Stella Artois and Beck's (but importantly not Corona) to get deal done. Without divestiture, Asahi would have had 2/3 of cider mkt. "Proposed divestments amount to c. 0.5% of pro forma EBITDA" and "no material impact" on either "deal economics or strategic rationale," Trevor figures.

Add Diageo Beer Co to growing list of cos (Molson Coors, Sierra, Boston, Summit, NBB-see below) offering distribs money back on excess inventory of untapped kegs, caught up in on-premise shutdown during current crisis. "For all untapped keg inventory in your warehouse, including what you've been legally allowed to take back from the on-premise, we are providing a 60/40 split with Diageo Beer Company covering 60% of the inventory," sr veep Jack Edwards wrote distribs. Yet top 2 most profitable cos in industry, ABI and Constellation, have not yet done anything to split costs of excess inventory of untapped kegs. While both have extended shelf life, that doesn't fully address problem. Constellation on verge of solution, INSIGHTS heard, but perhaps it's waiting until next qtr to report those costs, some suggest. Could that be it for AB as well?

In this extraordinarily unusual pantry-loading period, biz keeps changing rapidly. And so we watch the numbers like a hawk, and bring latest changes to you. Total beer biz $$ jumped 16% for 4 weeks, 9% yr-to-date in Nielsen all outlet thru Mar 21. But recent growth even more led by FMBs than before. Segment jumped 4.6 share of $$ to 13 for 4 weeks. And of course, vast majoirty of that growth is from seltzer.

03/31/2020

Corrections

: Madigan, Dahl and Harlan PA represented Beechwood, not Beer Capitol and CJW. Those 2 distribs are both represented by Madrigrano, Aiello & Santarelli, LLC. While Beechwood sez termination unlawful, others contend termination lawful under Wisconsin Brand Compensation Law. Dispute over a little more than ¼ of Dogfish volume in WI.

In another example of "never waste a good crisis," key Kentucky legislator/supporter of bill that provides broad direct shipping rights to distillers, vintners and brewers evoked COVID-19 to advance the bill, which just passed state assembly. "Right now the bourbon tourism industry is flat on its back," Repub floor leader Damon Thayer said, according to The Lane Report. "The same goes for tours of small farm wineries and our craft brew locations around the state. This will create a new revenue stream for those producers on the other side of this COVID-19 crisis." Recall, the bill originally contemplated opening up to direct shipping rights, into and out of KY, for all 3 tiers. Bill now limited to producers and caps shipments at 10 liters of spirits, 10 cases of wine and 10 cases of beer per month to legal age consumers. Producers barred from shipping into dry territories, Lane Report adds. In addition to coronavirus rationale, supporters claim KY consumers have sought looser direct shipping laws for years. (Ditto KY distillers, we understand.)

Something to look forward to: trademark dispute between Stone Brewing and Molson Coors over use of "STONE" in conjunction with Keystone Light rebrand in 2017 will be put before a jury this fall. So ordered US Dist Ct of Southern Calif last Fri, weighing series of motions by Stone and MC. "A jury could find" MC improperly used "STONE" mark and caused consumer confusion, judge wrote. "Of course, a jury could find quite the opposite as well." Ct dismissed issue of timing brought by MC, agreeing that dispute stemmed from co's recent rebrand. But also raised questions about strength and "fame" of Stone's mark. One issue after another in case determined "a close call" or "matter of fact" up for debate by judge. So get ready for a jury.

More leading craft brewers are takin' action to account for beer that's set to go out of code sitting in distrib and on-prem retailer warehouses following on-prem shutdown. Sierra Nevada is generously offering to cover "60% of the purchase cost of any untapped out of code keg of Sierra Nevada, Sufferfest or Strainge Beast - whether they are in your distributor warehouse or at retail," to all of its distribs "providing market wide relief to on-premise retailers" from now thru Jun 30, Chief Commercial Officer Joe Whitney wrote to distribs. Co also "will pay for, and arrange, all backhaul freight and product destruction" and "extend credit terms from 15 days to 21" from Apr 1 thru May 31. This relief program starts "effective immediately." Sierra keg codes are 150 days and co will be closely monitoring when kegs are "close to code" during this period. Then too, MN's Summit Brewing is goin' all the way, planning to offer "100% F.O.B. credit or rebate on any untapped kegged beer that is set to go out of code during these dates of mandated shut down of bars & restaurants," director of sales Brandon Bland wrote to distribs. More details in Craft Brew News.

Constellation will report its Q4 earnings this Friday amidst highly volatile period, not just because of the current COVID-19 crisis, but also for its stock and investors' perception of co. After falling almost 50% from Feb 20 to Mar 23 (down to $105 per share), STZ climbed back near 40% to $145 today. One pressure on its stock has been the plebiscite vote on its brewery in Mexicali, rejected by over ¾ of voters 10 days ago. Over last weekend, Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) said his government "will comply with a public consultation to halt the construction" of brewery, wrote Reuters. A few days earlier, AMLO also accused Constellation of unspecified "corruption" in local approval process. Meanwhile, the Mexican Bar Assn said the referendum was "unconstitutional," calling vote "a participatory exercise," wrote Mexico Daily. What happens next remains uncertain.

More evidence that 3d wk of Mar an all-timer for beer sales. Nielsen all-outlet scans show $$ sales up "an astonishing 42%" vs same week in '19, reports veep Danelle Kosmal. Even without FMBs/seltzers, beer +34%, with all segments up strong double digits. Large packs, food channel and "all three premium light brands" were rockin', Danelle adds. Meanwhile, "data for the week of March 28th will be very telling, and I think it will be a better indicator of the new normal in how consumers are responding to the crisis and their new normal, centered around the home." Ain't just off-premise or grocery stores where sales flying. "Not surprisingly, online growth rates are vastly outpacing in-store sales," notes Nielsen's Danny Brager. Indeed, online alc bev sales "posted triple digit (+243%) growth" in wk ending Mar 21. Wine dominates online, but spirits outpaced both wine and beer for the week. Also: "the number of online buyers of alcohol in the week ending 3/21/2020 was more than twice as high as the number of online alcohol buyers during the average over the last 52 weeks," Danny said.

Arizona, Virginia, Maryland and Tennessee all issued new statewide "stay-at-home" orders yesterday. They joined North Carolina, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Kansas and Alaska, which all made similar orders since last Friday. By tomorrow morning, orders will be in effect, pushing the total number of states under "stay-at-home" directives to 30. These states represent about 2/3 of the US population, according to CNN. However, individual cities and counties in at least 7 more states are under similar mandates. Those mandates also tend to be the most populous, including several large Texas cities, South Florida, Atlanta, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and more. Suggests closer to 3/4 of US population currently urged to not leave home except for food/medical care or to continue work at an "essential" biz.