Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Barn-burning recent sales fueled by pantry loading have dramatically improved top suppliers' yr-to-date trends thru Mar 22 in IRI multioutlet + convenience data from Bump Williams Consulting. At least temporarily. (INSIGHTS continues to hear beer sales slowing in 9 days since and already soft in some areas.) Nine of the top 10 beer suppliers up in $$ sales yr-to-date. When was the last time you saw that? AB $$ sales up 5% yr-to-date thru Mar 22, including $67 mil, 25% pop in latest week. Molson Coors up 2.9%, also with 25% pop in latest week. Constellation $$ sales up 16%, Mike's up 122% and Boston Beer up 39% yr-to-date. Diageo up double digits too. Given these mostly strong/spectacular trends in scan data, some publicly reported numbers for the qtr in coming weeks could look very strong, but key will be guidance going forward, or perhaps lack thereof.

In addition to biz update from Rabobank analyst on Beer Institute conference call last Fri, BI leaders covered other ground. CEO Jim McGreevy reminded that fed agencies and state govts have deemed beer along with other bevs and grocery items "essential." If (when?) restrictions tighten, Jim said, BI and industry allies will continue to "work on keeping this important designation." Beer Inst has three-fold role, sez Jim: 1) advance fed policies that help members stay in biz; 2) collaborate with allies in beer, food and bevs to maintain essential designation and "other common concerns"; 3) be resource for members via online "tracker" with state-by-state info, COVID-19 and other updates. BI will also hold weekly webinars, as needed.

Before COVID-19 pandemic really hit US, beer shipments grew in 22 of 50 states (and another one flat) for first 2 mos of 2020, Beer Inst state-by-state report estimates. That's even while total volume in all 50 states down 1.5% for 2 mos. Some bigger states like FL grew 0.7% and PA up 2% while handful of states saw sizable pops ranging from OK up 11%, WA, WI, CO, MN, OR, KS, RI and AK all up 5% or better, MA and NV up 3%, among top gainers. That's far more growing states than last couple of yrs, tho keep in mind, Feb leap day surely added a bit of an early boost and early-yr reports can be a bit funky in general. Then too, 8 of top-10 beer shipments states still down including tuff early drops in TX (-3%), NY (-7%), MI (-8%), GA (-4.5%), and IL, OH, NC each down 2-3%. Add it all up and state shipments down 423K, 1.5%, steeper than 0.7% drop in taxpaids, plus imports up in Jan. But there's often some variance between state shipments trends and total US trends.

Sheehan Family Cos' WI operation, Beechwood Sales & Service Dist, filed dispute thru American Arbitration Assn against Beer Capitol and C.J.W. over "valuation of beer distribution rights" for Dogfish brand. Following Boston Beer's acquisition of Dogfish Head last yr, Boston eventually moved Dogfish to its WI distrib network statewide (MC network). While several other WI distribs "have managed to come to agreement on the fair market value for Beechwood's distribution rights," Beechwood unable to come to agreement with Beer Capitol and C.J.W., per filing. Beer Capitol in Milwaukee is biggest WI distrib (and part of even larger Frank Beverage Group) and those 2 distribs likely majority of volume in state. But Dogfish Head reportedly sells under 50K cases in WI. "Despite Beechwood's good faith efforts, it has not been able to reach agreement for the distribution rights that Dogfish has unlawfully reassigned to Beer Capitol and/or C.J.W." Notably, each of these distribs are represented by same law firm, Madigan, Dahl & Harlan P.A, and Beechwood requests that American Arbitration Assn hold a single arbitration with both respondents.

No one knows yet of course, but Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper takes a first crack at modeling effect of COVID-19 on 2020 results for public cos Consumer Edge covers. His assumptions are rational, but this already represents revision, because "the impact on our coverage universe is more severe than we originally projected." Consumer Edge now assumes "hit to the top line on beer and soft drink companies will be in the mid-single digit range."

FMBs $$ sales up 117% for 1 week thru Mar 22 in IRI all outlet + liquor data reported by Bump Williams Consulting, following almost as spectacular 96% gain in prior week. FMBs sold $119 mil of product for 1 week. That's just behind subpremiums $121 mil, even tho subpremiums sold over 2x as much volume and up 23%. Subpremiums over 14 share of $$ for full yr 2019 in IRI, while FMBs under 11. In latest week, FMBs at 13.5 share, while subpremiums at 13.8 share. So gap narrowing rapidly and beer world is still changing fast during period of short-term outsized growth.

This is getting ridiculous as pantry-loading taken to new extreme. Beer $$ grew more than 1.5x as fast as during previous pantry-loading week, when $$ up over 20% for 1 week. Now up 33.6% for 1 week thru 3/22 in IRI all outlet + liquor data, reported by Bump Williams Consulting. With this 2-week surge, beer $$ sales now up 10.5% yr-to-date thru Mar 22. Unbelievable. Recall, Rabobank economist Jim Watson said on Beer Inst conference call Friday that anecdotally he already heard that pantry loading slowed last week (not yet in data). But beer still ain't growin' as fast as a number of other big CPG categories, including wine and spirits. Wine biz up 50% for 1 week and spirits biz up 70%. Wow! Well at very least, these phenomenal short-term results will provide cushion when the inevitable slowdown comes (already happening, one distrib said today).

Beer execs like to keep ties to the industry. Latest in long line: Mark Hunter, ex-ceo of Molson Coors. Mark just invested in and took on advisory role with Big Drop Brewing, a UK maker of alcohol-free beers. He bought in during "Big Drop's ongoing fifth crowdfunding round and will provide business advice on a formal basis, Big Drop said," just-drinks reports. Big Drop contract produces its no-alc brews and does biz in UK, Canada and Australia. "I'll be speaking to [Mark] about the beer industry and global growth," Big Drop's ceo Rob Fink said. Not an easy time to be expanding globally, but lotsa chatter these days about no-alc beer growth potential. "The scope to create an international brand is genuinely there," Fink believes.

Crook & Marker spiked & sparkling, founded by Bai founder Ben Weiss after he sold Bai to Dr Pepper Snapple Group to tune of $1.7 bil, considerably cutback staff, possibly approaching half of team, INSIGHTS hears (as sibling pub Beverage Business INSIGHTS reported yesterday). Without offering details, Princeton, NJ-based co offered statement confirming there has been some degree of restructuring. "In light of the uncertain business conditions that we and other companies across the country are facing, including significant restrictions in our ability to physically access stores and wholesaler policies which impact our ability to deliver product, we recently made some changes to our organization including letting some of our team members go," comms exec acknowledged. "Broader restructure" means co "also increased headcount in some key areas." It promises no gap in support to retailers, wholesalers and looks forward to launch of its USDA organic lineup.

As question looms large for many distribs on what to do about all the beer sitting in their warehouses and coming back from restaurants/bars likely to go out-of-code, Boston Beer reaffirmed its longstanding policy to split 50/50 returns of out-of-code beer. Its 50/50 split more extensive than Molson Coors. It's on both full keg and package returns, a "standard" practice "that we have had in place for years," chief sales officer John Geist wrote distrib partners. "During this unprecedented time, your local Boston Beer sales manager will virtually approve all out of code beer." Both AB and Constellation have plans in the works to address this issue too, as do several other smaller suppliers, INSIGHTS understands. Then too, even as Boston "will continue to evaluate and adjust our business as needed," co is "remaining committed to keeping our annual spending levels against all brands and will continue with our market recoveries," said John. In Boston's view, "it will be vital to have these levels in place for a more impactful outcome" as mkt "return[s] to a more normal pace of business." Gotta note, as major sports and entertainment events have essentially shut down, that would seem to free up lotsa marketing $$ for Boston (and other beer cos) to reallocate elsewhere.