Beer Marketer's Insights
Molson Coors Drops Guidance, Offers Paid Leave, Gives Raises; Breweries "Operating At Normal Levels"
Like ABI, Coke and many other cos, Molson Coors today abandoned its 2020 and beyond guidance. Molson Coors is "withdrawing in its entirety, its financial outlook for 2020 and beyond," co said. Recall, it expected to return to EBITDA growth in 2021. Difficult to make any kind of go-forward call now. At same time, it announced "several initiatives aimed at protecting and supporting employees." Those included a "new voluntary paid leave program for" April "available to any employee whose work must be done on site and is at high risk for severe outcomes of coronavirus." Employees deemed "high risk" by "federal health authorities" can get "paid leave of 60% of their regular wages." Molson Coors also "instituted a thank you pay incentive for brewery and Molson Coors distribution employees, whose work must be done on site." They'll get "an additional $5 for every hour of work." That's additional $200 per week (if they work 40-hr week). Then too, Molson Coors "created a new paid leave policy" so that anyone who is forced to quarantine for 2 weeks still get paid in that time. And Molson Coors also "implemented additional measures to protect our employees… including stepped up cleaning and sanitizing processes and encouraging social distancing."
Biz Highlights from BI Conference Call: Pantry Loading Already Slowing; "Slow Return" On Premise
Beer Institute hosted conference call this afternoon to cover range of COVID-19 issues. Topline takeaways from Jim Watson, Rabobank analyst on current biz trends and peek into future:
- Early data shows on-premise biz -85% (and getting worse), same big off-premise pops as Express has been reporting. One key reason craft will be hit so hard: while on premise is 20% of overall beer volume (spirits similar, wine a bit less), on premise closer to 40% for craft, Rabobank estimates.
- Off-premise, there's been "big shift" to natl big box chains, where biz +60%, vs 30% increase for local stores.
- Beer stock-up slightly behind water/soft drinks.
- "Biggest question" is when pantry loading "tails off." Rabobank already hearing anecdotally that it's "coming to an end," tho Jim still expects "very big numbers for current week" thru tomorrow.
- There's also been shift to flagship brands - a "flight to comfort" - and bigger pack sizes.
- Some indications that grocery stores are "foregoing resets" this spring and shifting to high-turn brands/pkgs, hearkening back 20-30 yrs ago and mantra of "stack 'em high and let 'em fly."
- Some retailers showing willingness to warehouse more product on their own "to meet consumer rush."
- Supply chain is "creaky but holding up very well so far," as there is "clear dedication to keep product moving." Two potential flashpoints or possible disruptions: delays at ports and workers emphasizing safety threats to change operating conditions, i.e. workers forcing Starbucks to shift to drive-thru only.
- Long tail of small brewers "at risk," especially those with taproom models who spent heavily to build out. Their off-sale options working for now, but once they get thru current supply "will they brew another tank?" Lots will depend on customer and govt support, Jim suggests.
- E-commerce/delivery "booming too" for now, and "reaching to the future" as more important biz model down the road.
- Looking forward, as pantry-loading ends, "we could see a volume pause, a rough week or two," before returning to normal. Also possible current crisis will lead retailers to rethink what they do, and maybe SKU counts "will stay lower for a while." Also: "Pricing will matter more than ever" given return to big packs/big boxes. "We see that as a key lever, a lot of movement on that front." On premise: Rabobank does not see "V-shape" bounce back, (when it comes), more like a "stair-step pattern" as consumers remain cautious.
"Over 300" employees lost their jobs at Deschutes, mostly (~250) from their various tasting room operations, but spanning all departments including sales, marketing, production and admin jobs, founder Gary Fish told Oreg Live. That's over 60% of its entire staff! About 45% of its biz has been effectively shut down as co derives ~20% from taproom sales and another ~25% from on-prem draft. "We did it with an eye toward those employees qualifying for unemployment as quickly as possible, and in most cases we facilitated that action," Gary added. "As soon as the volume justifies it," co hopes to hire back as many folks as possible. But that could be a long road ahead, as Deschutes takin' a methodical, "realistic and conservative" approach toward recovery, sales and marketing veep Neal Stewart explained to INSIGHTS separately. See much more detail on
Today, Constellation announced "a collective commitment of more than $2.5 million to COVID-19 relief efforts," mainly targeted at the hard-hit restaurant and bar industry. In partnership with several of its flagship brands, including Corona Extra, co donated $1 mil to upcoming launch of National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation's (NRAEF) Restaurant Employee Relief Fund. Constellation also pledged $500K to the US Bartenders' Guild - a nonprofit that supports bartenders and other service industry professionals - in partnership with Modelo Especial, while Modelo separately contributed an additional $250K to support first responders across the US.
$2-Trillion Stimulus Package Passed Unanimously by Senate as Jobless Claims Hit Record 3.28 Mil
Extraordinary scale of COVID-19 impacts to US and global economy leading to extraordinary measures. US Senate unanimously passed a stimulus bill estimated to inject some $2 trillion into economy to keep it afloat. Most key measures among those discussed deeply in recent weeks, including direct payments to American citizens, bolstering unemployment support, offering emergency loans to small bizzes that keep employees and targeted bail-outs for hard-hit companies and industries. Bill sets aside a half-trillion $$ for fund controlled by Fed Reserve for biz and industry-specific loans. House will take up compromise bill tomorrow, with hope that it will be signed into law by end of week. It's easily largest stimulus bill ever passed.
Domestic Brewers' Taxpaid Shipments Lagging Scan Trends; Dipped 0.7% in Feb, Soft for 2 Mos
Sure looks like domestic brewers did not build inventories Jan-Feb. Fed taxpaid shipments by domestic brewers off 81K bbls, 0.7%, estimates Beer Inst. That followed similar slip in Jan. Taxpaids -154K bbls, -0.6% for 2 mos. Early-yr reports can be a bit funky and still may have not caught up with seltzer surge. Meanwhile, even amidst recent off-premise buying spree, lotsa draft inventory sittin' in distribs' warehouses right now with nowhere to go, we hear. (See above.) So, lotsa puts and takes.
Difficult Times Call for Difficult Measures and Difficult Choices; How About Fairness? Limiting SKUs
Adaptations due to coronavirus comin' fast and furious. Express got a copy of a message a large distrib sent one of its suppliers in recent days. Supplier had asked whether its brands had been abruptly "withheld" earlier this week from distribs' (thousands of) retail customers. Turns out, distrib decided last week that in the interests of streamlining and safekeeping its warehouse and delivery ops, it would limit number of SKUs it would make available to its customers beginning earlier this week - effectively excluding dozens of small suppliers from its deliveries. Distrib hopes strategy will be very temporary and plans ongoing review, but who knows?
Problem of all those unusable kegs sitting in distribs' warehouses or in shuttered bars weighed increasingly heavy on distribs. Almost $1 bil may be tied up in that system wide. So this is a very big deal. But help is at hand. At least for Molson Coors, and reportedly for others as well in near future. Molson Coors announced their plan first. "We plan to implement a 50/50 split with distributors for the cost of untapped Molson Coors and craft partner kegs—whether they're in your distributor warehouse or at retail," wrote Molson Coors sales prexy Kevin Doyle in note to distribs this morn. "We will also split 50/50 with distributors any tax reimbursements, deductions or credits from eligible returned kegs," Kevin continued "and provide a per keg credit to distributors for decanting eligible kegs on or near their premises, or cover offsite third-party decanting costs, thereby saving freight costs on keg returns to breweries." There are lots of wrinkles to this as Kevin acknowledges: "We know that we will need to share more detail on process and logistics, including considerations under state laws, keg decanting processes, claims submission forms and the mechanics of any business income tax credit that Congress might pass, Kevin added. "But we wanted to let you know as soon as possible our commitment to covering 50% of eligible keg costs."
Correction:
Prior to becoming prexy of Diageo North America, Deirdre Mahlan was CFO for all of Diageo, not just North America. And in our haste, we also misspelled her name yesterday. INSIGHTS regrets the errors.
Cannabis is "Essential" Too; Adding Curbside Pickup & Online Orders; Pantry Loading Burned Out?
Just as alc bev producers and distribs have been deemed "essential" by various states, so too have cannabis producers and retail outlets. There are articles all over the map about how cannabis is "essential," staying open and gaining ability to allow curbside pick-ups and online orders in several cases. This is happening in both developed mkts with legal recreational sales like CA, OR and NV (delivery only) as well as newer ones like MI, and several mkts with medical-only sales, ranging from NY, NJ, PA, FL and OH to smaller states like NM, NH and NE, according to Forbes report. Recreational states like MA are making the distinction that only medical operations are exempt from shutdown and similarly WA and IL only allowing medical patients to do curbside pickups despite exempting all cannabis biz from stay-at-home orders.

