"We are in the midst of an unprecedented public health challenge," began AB veep business and wholesaler development, Bob Tallett. "While we remain fully committed to the quality of our beers in the market, we are taking some preparatory steps so that we can effectively protect our supply chain and maintain business continuity." So starting today, "all core & value beer produced with a current shelf life of less than 180 days will be extended to 180 days." Current shelf life for Bud and Bud Light at 110 days, so this is big increase. But "this change does not affect any inventory currently in your warehouse or in retail, or any shipments of beer you may receive that were produced before the change occurs." It's a "temporary change." Then too, all draft beer will be extended to 90 days, up from 50 "effective immediately. This includes all draught inventory currently in warehouse or retail as long as quality control standards are followed." This too is "temporary change."

Several of the biggest brands in the industry that have declined for years, Bud Light, Coors Light and Miller Lite, were all top 10 growth brands for week ending Mar 15 in IRI data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. And Miller Lite and Coors Light up double digits, up 18.9% and 15.7% respectively. Bud Light up 6%. More crazy 1-week numbers for a lot of craft brewers: Sierra up 39%, New Belgium up 46.5%. Boston Beer (mostly not craft nowadays—see below) up 61.5% and Mike's up 123%. But AB actually led growth for the week. Total $$ sales up 14%, Constellation up 27% and Molson Coors up 14.4%. These numbers are a blip in time, but Bump expects "even greater growth" next week. And total beer $$, up over 20%, fueled by 40% growth in foodstores. But beer is actually lagging total CPG which "grew by a whopping 40%" as per Nielsen.

Off-premise scans continue to show impact of big-time stock up. Volume up 4.1%, $$ +7.6% in Nielsen 4-wk all-outlet scans thru Mar 14. Grocery trends are +8% and +11% respectively (and latest week $$ +14% in toto). What's new and what's not in latest all-outlet 4-wk trends? Almost all segments seeing improved trends, tho mainstream still losing ground. Biggest improvements: craft volume +3.7% for 4 wks while just +0.2% YTD. Seltzer-driven FMBs tacked on 4 pts in last 4 wks, accelerating to +63%. Premium lights improved by 2 pts, tho still -1.9%. But import trend softened very slightly in most recent period. While Mike's, Boston and Constellation continue to lead gainers, AB volume +0.6% for wks and MC even. Diageo really slowed in week before St Paddy's Day, up just 1.6% for 4 weeks vs +6% YTD. But FIFCO doubled gain pace +4.7% vs +2.3%. And New Belgium, Sierra Nevada and Blue Moon really revved up in most recent period. Even Sam fam edged into the black for 4 wks.

While major brewers haven't changed guidance going forward in light of COVID-19 crisis, on Fri, Coca-Cola said it doesn't expect to reach previously announced guidance of organic rev growth of 5% and EPS growth of 7.25% to $2.25 per share for full year 2020. KO won't issue guidance for year going forward, as COVID-19 implications are expected to have "material" impact on its global biz. "Due to the speed with which the COVID-19 situation is developing, there is uncertainty around its ultimate impact; therefore, the negative impact on our financial and operating results cannot be reasonably estimated at this time, but the impact could be material," co stated in 8-K filing this morning. KO also noted it has "contingency plans" in place and expects to continue to supply customers with no near-term disruptions. This morning, Coca-Cola European Partners also pulled previous guidance, per Consumer Edge Research's Brett Cooper, who noted, "CCEP won't be the last to do so." Beyond guidance pullback, CCEP also "suspended its share repurchase program, is curtailing discretionary capital projects and emphasized it has access to" $1.8 bil in financing, added Brett.

As brewers seek immediate excise tax relief amid coronavirus pandemic, they're still battling aluminum cos which they insist include tariff charges on recycled and other aluminum that's not actually subject to tariffs. Recent study by consultants at Harbor Aluminum, provided by Beer Inst, found:

• Since aluminum tariffs went into effect in Mar 2018, American bev biz paid $582 million in 232 tariffs for aluminum can sheet, but the U.S. govt only collected 14% of those funds.
• Tho Canada exempt from paying aluminum tariffs in May 2019, smelters there charged $21 mil in tariff premiums on can sheet they produced, collecting more $$ than US Treasury and US smelters.

Then too, tho U.S. can sheet contains more than 70% recycled domestic aluminum, exempt from 232 tariffs, US bev makers still pay a tariff premium on this metal. No wonder brewers and their bev brethren remain up in arms. Reuters took up story last week. Its reporters found:

• Some recyclers charge a duty paid price in Jan more than $180/ton above the duty unpaid price, according to data from S&P Global Platts.
• Harbor Aluminum sez approx 70% of aluminum in the cans used by U.S. bev bizzes is recycled here and free from import taxes; another 16% comes from US and Canadian smelters, tariff-exempt.
• Aluminum accounts for about 65% of the total costs for U.S. drinks firms.
• Canadian producers booked $29 mil by charging for tariffs they did not actually pay between Mar '18 and '19; domestic smelters got rev increase $44 mil, sez Harbor.

US bev makers continue to insist key problem is "Midwest premium," an additional fee determined by S&P Global Platts, ostensibly aimed to cover transport and handling costs plus, since Mar '18, tariffs assessed by Trump Admin. S&P claims process is "totally transparent." Bev makers insist recycling firms and Canadian smelters charge them a fee including tariff duty when they should be paying a "duty unpaid premium," which S&P also publishes. But, apparently, these suppliers, partners with US bev makers for yrs, are "declining to use the duty unpaid price," which has been on avg $190/ton less than the duty-paid premium. Thus, the screwing.

As everyone adapts to current environment with new restrictions and precautions in place to prevent spread of COVID-19, NBWA and Verno Consulting (Joe and Wes Verno) offered variety of updated info, best practices and thoughts on industry outlook for distribs. Notably, Verno "expect[s]" several mos of impact on biz followed by "new normal" period that will "never fully be the same," once restrictions on biz operations are lifted, co suggests in memo made available by NBWA. Breaking it out into 3 phases, Verno looks at "immediate adjustment" period lasting for the next few weeks and "interim" period that could last anywhere from another few weeks to "several months" before reaching "new normal."

Over the weekend and this morning, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Indiana, New Jersey, Oregon and Delaware issued stay-at-home orders to state residents to further limit the spread of coronavirus. They joined Illinois, which issued similar orders on Friday, California and New York. Stay-at-home orders are expected in Wisconsin tomorrow. Officials in Dallas County, TX, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the islands of Oahu and Maui, among others, also ordered residents to not go out unless they need food, health services or work at an essential business. Non-essential bizzes ordered closed in many more states, cities and counties. That said, many governors also using increasingly dire pleas to follow these orders, expressing disappointment (or even anger) with folks still choosing to recreate or gather in public and promising even more strict measures if current mandates not followed.

Economists forecast more dire outlooks for the US economy as COVID-19 continues to upend daily life. "Morgan Stanley said U.S. GDP growth would plunge 30% in the second quarter, hitting a 74-year low," as reported by MarketWatch. That forecast "is worse than that of Goldman Sachs, which predicted a 24% drop, but more optimistic than Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard" who forcast 50% drop. Same Fed president Bullard also predicted that "unemployment rate could hit 30%" in coming months. On the brighter side, Fed Reserve said it would buy as much government-backed debt as needed in an unprecedented announcement of unlimited buybacks, and Morgan Stanley predicted that a repeat of the Great Depression would be avoided due to aggressive policy response.

Lots of Constellation news this morn. Co put out release that even with closed borders, and in daunting times, it can still bring beer to US. "Recent decisions to close the northern and southern borders of the US do not impact commercial traffic," said ceo Bill Newlands in a statement. That's "essential to enabling supply chain operations and the building of critical inventories needed to meet the needs of our communities," added Bill. This will help "as we and other companies in the consumer products goods space work to provide a bit of comfort in this otherwise difficult time." STZ has already "taken steps to bolster support of local off-premise retailers and distributors to meet increased demand" as volume shifts to off premise from on premise. "We've seen IRI volume in off-premise accounts for our beer business increase more than 30% in the most recent 4 week period over their 52 week trends." Constellation volume up about 10% for 52 weeks in IRI MULC; suggests trend about 13% in latest 4 weeks.