Last Friday, Dogfish Head volume moved from Md distrib FP Winner to Bond, as Winner unsuccessful in getting temporary restraining order (TRO). FP Winner also sold small part of its Dogfish Head biz to Northeast in MD, reportedly for 8x GP. In all, FP Winner sold about 150K cases of Dogfish Head volume, up about 8% last yr. Separately, FP Winner filed motion for Temporary Restraining Order and Preliminary Injunction on Mar 4 following Dogfish notice of termination that goes back to last Aug. But that motion denied by Baltimore County judge on Mar 12, court documents show. "Winner has now lost before a Maryland court for a 4th time," said McDermott Will & Emery lawyer Mike Nadel. (The other 3 efforts were related to moving Pabst brands back in 2015; that matter is still being litigated.) In Dogfish Head case: "The brands have moved," Mike continued. "Boston Beer has been successful in its consolidation efforts in Maryland."

Midwest Walgreen's featured suitcases of Miller Lite and Coors Light right next to Modelo Especial and price differential startling in picture INSIGHTS saw over weekend. Lite and Coors Light start at $10.99 with a Walgreen's card, but get down to $5.99 with $5.00 mail-in rebate, while Modelo Especial at $28.99. Or $1.2l per can vs a quarter.

Now that China is just beginning to normalize, with vastly reduced incidence of coronavirus cases, and even bars and restaurants beginning to open again, here's an early read on what the impact on the China beer business has been. And it's horrible, unfortunately. Bernstein's Trevor Stirling follows the impacts on China biz like a hawk. Here are his latest estimates for the first qtr as of this morn. Bud APAC volume down 29%, CR Beer down 33%, Tsingtao down 35%, Carlsberg down 34% and Chongqing down 38%. Earnings likely to be at least cut in half for each. Beer sales in Feb dropped especially dramatically. And this is a cautionary note for all in US beer biz, who are momentarily enjoying effects of pantry load in recent weeks, but also likely to experience declines in coming weeks.

Even with the Fed emergency actions over weekend to shore up economy (like cutting its benchmark rate to near zero) and a 2,000 point bump late Friday after the President's press conference, markets are tanking again today, based on fear of economic impacts from COVID-19. And once again, some beer stocks hit disproportionately, tho that could all change by the time you read this. It's a period of exceptional volatility. At presstime, mkt down over 2250 points, about 9.5%. Yet BUD stock down another 16%, to $37 per share. TAP stock down 6% to $40. And STZ stock down 8% to $120. Each of BUD and TAP are down in range of 2/3 from their peak values back in 2016. And Constellation now lost almost half its value in last 2 yrs. Even Boston down 30% or so since peak last yr, including big drop today. RBC's Nik Modi put out note "Why Is Constellation Underperforming" this morn, arguing it should be much higher. Didn't help. And Credit Suisse's Kaumil Gajrawala raised Boston to "outperform" on Friday (see below for details in near daily dose of seltzer news), and it was up big as mkt gained. But those gains disappeared today and then some. Hold on.

Economic impact of COVID-19 could depend greatly on what happens to US workforce. How will individual businesses and especially state and federal governments respond to the massive disruptions in work already caused by and likely to persist because of the pandemic? It matters. A huge number of people will be affected. Take the on-premise, already feeling acute impacts. About 15.6 mil or 1 in 10 working Americans are employed in restaurants, according to the Natl Restaurant Assn. Even if restaurants stay open for to-go service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated about around 9 mil food service jobs outside the kitchen in 2018. Looking at the event and arena industry, the Chicago Blackhawks NHL team cited 1,500 workers in and outside its arena every game, with a total payroll of $250K per game, according to an AP story over the weekend. Multiply that by every major league sports team, let alone smaller events that now won't happen. The BLS counted well over 1 mil jobs in entertainment, sports or cultural institutions, almost all currently shuttered. Then there's retail, personal care and air/rail/road transportation, with some 8.4 mil, 3.1 mil and a quarter of a million jobs each, per BLS 2018 stats. While some surveys and studies put the figure closer to half, one American Payroll Assn study from late last yr claimed that almost 3/4 of US workers "would 'experience financial difficulty' if their usual payday was delayed by as little as one week," the AP reported.

Repercussions from late last yr's Michigan distrib-backed Distributor Independence Act continue in 2020. Recall, South Carolina attempting to pass a similar bill as INSIGHTS reported (see Feb 21 Express). But more recently, AB execs met with its Mich distribs, demanded that they sign by today (Mar 13) written agreement to "participate in" AB's "forecasting, benchmark and all connect software programs." And "if the distributors fail or refuse to sign the letter," AB "will shut these programs down effectively preventing the distributors from ordering their products." That was Mich distrib assn's "understanding," according to an "Order to Show Cause" from Michigan's Liquor Control Commission filed yesterday. If distribs don't sign on to AB's system, then AB will go to a mandatory 8-week out forecasting system with far-less flexibility and shut off its "all connect" software programs. Originally that was supposed to happen by end of day today, but several sources say that deadline delayed, while another said it's still on. AB's perspective is that if its distribs don't agree to what it asks, it must take these actions in order to be compliant with Mich statutes.

Responses to limit the spread of COVID-19 stepped up dramatically in just the last couple of days as the enormity of the coronavirus' potential reach weighed increasingly heavy. This afternoon, President Trump declared a national emergency, clearing the use of funds to help limit the spread of COVID-19. In the days and hours leading up to that announcement, many states, cities and other municipalities formally announced states of emergency and called upon businesses, cultural and education institutions and event organizers to limit and cancel large gatherings, where viruses such as COVID-19 can spread rapidly to large populations.

Following recommendation made by one of its officials last fall, US Intl Trade Comm (ITC) barred AB InBev "from importing beer dispensers found to infringe Heineken's patents," reports World Intl Property Review. Recall, Heineken charged ABI's Nova counter-top draft dispensing system for Stella Artois violated patents Heineken had obtained for its similar Brewlock and Blade systems. Battle began back in 2018, when Heineken filed complaint with ITC. AB InBev filed countercharges with similar infringement claims vs Heineken, tho those charges subsequently dropped. In added twist, it was Heineken USA's placement of those draft systems that led to record TTB pay-to-play offers in compromise last yr.