Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Tho spirits sales are outperforming all other alc bevs in off-prem data, many smaller craft distilleries are facing similar challenges to small brewers and wineries, with "bleak prospects of being able to sustain their small businesses" amid current mkt conditions, recent survey conducted by Distilled Spirits Council of the US (DISCUS) and American Distilling Institute (ADI) for indie craft distillers show. Among 118 distilleries surveyed across 35 states + DC, sales declined 64% on avg and 42% "do not anticipate being able to sustain their business for more than 3 months." Number ticks up to 2/3 of respondents that don't think they can "sustain" biz beyond 6 mos. Approximately 43% of distillery employees have been let go - on avg distilleries surveyed had ~14 employees pre-COVID and let go ~6 since. And 63% cancelled orders of raw materials in effort to scale back production costs/output. "There's no way to sugarcoat this news — the economic climate for the craft distilling industry is dire," said Erik Owens, prexy of the American Distilling Institute. While "relaxed" regs have helped, "we have a long way to go to get the once vibrant craft distilling sector back to booming again."

The venture capital arm of AB InBev, Zx Ventures, seems to have come to the conclusion that there isn't a fortune to be made in homebrewing. The subsidiary of the world's largest brewer sold off its stake in MN-based homebrew supply shop Northern Brewer last summer, according to a press release from new owner Black Street Capital Holdings, which turned up on BeerAdvocate's online forum and was reported on by Brewbound. Zx also seems to have exited its investment in PicoBrew, the homebrewing appliance widely referred to as the "Keurig of beer," according to reporting by The Spoon late last yr and more recently. In fact, PicoBrew essentially closed up shop entirely at the end of last month after a series of ownership changes and going into receivership in the state of Washington, which led to the departure of its founding team. Recall, Zx invested in both companies 3-4 years ago. So its departure is in many ways par for the course for venture capital investments.

CO's Next Stop Brew Co "will close its doors for good on May 30," marking the 4th brewery to go out of biz in-state since COVID-19 hit, reported Westword. But Next Stop "turbulence" not just due to COVID-related challenges, paper points out. After originally opening in 2017 as "Intrepid Sojourner Beer Project," last Oct co changed its name to Next Stop, put its taproom lease and equipment up for sale, and shifted focus toward canning/distribution via contract production. It considered opening a new "fine-dining oriented" brewpub location earlier this yr, but then COVID-19 hit. And while relying less on taproom sales generally is healthier during quarantine, distribution at retail is extremely challenging and competitive these days, co-owner Andrew Moore acknowledged to paper. In general, "some have had the cash on hand to survive eight weeks of to-go sales, but when you add that to the summer of social distancing and a second wave of coronavirus in the fall or winter — which is the slow season anyway — you are going to see a lot of this happen," Andrew added. Other CO cos out of biz include Veterans Brothers, Iron Bird and Gorilla Alchemy Brewing.

Some top regional hard cideries got off to strong starts to the yr even as COVID-19 altered the mkt. In fact, MI's Blake's Hard Cider had impressive Q1, with shipments volume up 62%, co announced last week. Shipments remain up 49% YTD, even as ~35% of its biz was previously on-premise before COVID-related shutdowns went into effect, media contact Heather Hall shared with CBN. And Blake's also touts itself as fastest growing cidery among top-20 US hard cider cos in scans; $$ up 94% with natl and regional chains vs +59% with indie retailers.

Craft segment is shedding extra share in one of its most developed mkts/channels, NorCal grocery stores, as hard seltzer growth even more pronounced there lately. Total beer $$ grew 23% and hard seltzer-driven FMB segment more than tripled, gaining massive 9+ share of $$ to 15.1 for latest 4 wks thru Apr 25 in NorCal Nielsen grocery data. So craft's strong 17% gain for 4 wks not keeping pace with total beer, and slipped 1.9 share of total beer $$. Yet craft is still largest segment by far with 35 share; 10-pts ahead of next largest segment, imports, which shed 5 pts in latest 4 wks. Nearly 20-pts ahead of combined premium lights/premium regular. Indeed, NorCal's a different world.

It took just over 4 mos of 2020 for craft segment to put up more growth in tracked off-premise scans than the segment got during all of 2019. Craft $$ up 30.5% for 1 wk thru May 3 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. Segment now up over 11% yr-to-date, a gain of almost $152 mil. Craft grew by about $127 mil, 3%, in 2019 (YTD thru 12/29). Entire beer category on same trajectory. Total IRI-tracked beer sales grew by a little less than $1.8 bil last yr and already up $1.69 bil YTD after gaining another $236 mil for 1 wk thru 5/3.

You might not expect such a fierce supporter of free markets and govt restraint as The American Conservative to sound an alarm about how the beer aisle "provides a handy lesson" in "the corrosive influence of monopoly power on American society." But that's just what a recent, lengthy article penned by Jeremy Lott aims to do. Titled "A Sober Look at the Dangers of Craft Beer Consolidation," the article argues that "small brewers are being squeezed by conglomerate power," and asks if "giants like InBev" are "about to get their comeuppance," via more rigorous antitrust enforcement. Spoiler alert: even tho the Justice Dept has asked for more info on AB's pending purchase of the remainder of Craft Brew Alliance, that doesn't mean DOJ will intervene. In any case, ABI has a lot of debt, big brewers are not necessarily fated to "get the most business" going forward (ABI "wasn't prescient or nimble enough to see the hard seltzer craze") and "craft breweries are popping up at a rate far faster than AB InBev and other big players can buy them up." Oh, and there's tons of choice in local grocery stores. (Needless to say, this article was written before the special challenges coronavirus is posing for craft brewers around the US.)

It's all still happening. Breweries close. Breweries open. Breweries find new oppys to expand. Huge hits to biz dealt by COVID caused a couple more craft breweries or brewery taprooms to close recently, including Pomona, CA's Sanctum Brewing and Fresno Tower District taproom of area's Full Circle Brewing. Meanwhile, Fifty West Brewing went forward with soft opening of Burger Bar restaurant expansion in Cincy, starting with take-out options only. It's centerpiece of new much larger, family-friendly "campus" expansion that co plans to fully open "when the world returns to normal," it wrote. At same time, Ethereal Brewing of Lexington, KY opened 2nd location in town, a downtown brewpub in partnership with local food purveyor Bazaar Eatery.

While Boston Beer's marketing for Sam Adams brand primarily focuses on its Restaurant Relief Fund donations these days, co's also finding ways to connect with more light-hearted content recently too. Sam Adams just released new digital ad depicting a Zoom Happy Hour hosted by "your cousin from Boston." Everyone's sporting thick Boston accents with Sam Adams Boston Lager in hand, as jokes range from "getting that jail body," to spotty internet connections and multiple Tom Brady references. Ending banner message: "From Boston With Love."

FL's JDub's Brewing filed for chapter-11 bankruptcy, reported Sarasota Herald Tribune, as co cited coronavirus as "the determining factor in the filing." "Once spring training was cancelled, followed by the mandatory closures of bars and restaurants, our most profitable month of the year literally turned into our worst ever, in the course of one day," owner Jermey Joerger detailed in Facebook post. So co filed for bankruptcy 1 mo ago, only shortly after closing its taproom on Mar 20.