Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Some top regional hard cideries got off to strong starts to the yr even as COVID-19 altered the mkt. In fact, MI's Blake's Hard Cider had impressive Q1, with shipments volume up 62%, co announced last week. Shipments remain up 49% YTD, even as ~35% of its biz was previously on-premise before COVID-related shutdowns went into effect, media contact Heather Hall shared with CBN. And Blake's also touts itself as fastest growing cidery among top-20 US hard cider cos in scans; $$ up 94% with natl and regional chains vs +59% with indie retailers.

Craft segment is shedding extra share in one of its most developed mkts/channels, NorCal grocery stores, as hard seltzer growth even more pronounced there lately. Total beer $$ grew 23% and hard seltzer-driven FMB segment more than tripled, gaining massive 9+ share of $$ to 15.1 for latest 4 wks thru Apr 25 in NorCal Nielsen grocery data. So craft's strong 17% gain for 4 wks not keeping pace with total beer, and slipped 1.9 share of total beer $$. Yet craft is still largest segment by far with 35 share; 10-pts ahead of next largest segment, imports, which shed 5 pts in latest 4 wks. Nearly 20-pts ahead of combined premium lights/premium regular. Indeed, NorCal's a different world.

It took just over 4 mos of 2020 for craft segment to put up more growth in tracked off-premise scans than the segment got during all of 2019. Craft $$ up 30.5% for 1 wk thru May 3 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. Segment now up over 11% yr-to-date, a gain of almost $152 mil. Craft grew by about $127 mil, 3%, in 2019 (YTD thru 12/29). Entire beer category on same trajectory. Total IRI-tracked beer sales grew by a little less than $1.8 bil last yr and already up $1.69 bil YTD after gaining another $236 mil for 1 wk thru 5/3.

You might not expect such a fierce supporter of free markets and govt restraint as The American Conservative to sound an alarm about how the beer aisle "provides a handy lesson" in "the corrosive influence of monopoly power on American society." But that's just what a recent, lengthy article penned by Jeremy Lott aims to do. Titled "A Sober Look at the Dangers of Craft Beer Consolidation," the article argues that "small brewers are being squeezed by conglomerate power," and asks if "giants like InBev" are "about to get their comeuppance," via more rigorous antitrust enforcement. Spoiler alert: even tho the Justice Dept has asked for more info on AB's pending purchase of the remainder of Craft Brew Alliance, that doesn't mean DOJ will intervene. In any case, ABI has a lot of debt, big brewers are not necessarily fated to "get the most business" going forward (ABI "wasn't prescient or nimble enough to see the hard seltzer craze") and "craft breweries are popping up at a rate far faster than AB InBev and other big players can buy them up." Oh, and there's tons of choice in local grocery stores. (Needless to say, this article was written before the special challenges coronavirus is posing for craft brewers around the US.)

It's all still happening. Breweries close. Breweries open. Breweries find new oppys to expand. Huge hits to biz dealt by COVID caused a couple more craft breweries or brewery taprooms to close recently, including Pomona, CA's Sanctum Brewing and Fresno Tower District taproom of area's Full Circle Brewing. Meanwhile, Fifty West Brewing went forward with soft opening of Burger Bar restaurant expansion in Cincy, starting with take-out options only. It's centerpiece of new much larger, family-friendly "campus" expansion that co plans to fully open "when the world returns to normal," it wrote. At same time, Ethereal Brewing of Lexington, KY opened 2nd location in town, a downtown brewpub in partnership with local food purveyor Bazaar Eatery.

While Boston Beer's marketing for Sam Adams brand primarily focuses on its Restaurant Relief Fund donations these days, co's also finding ways to connect with more light-hearted content recently too. Sam Adams just released new digital ad depicting a Zoom Happy Hour hosted by "your cousin from Boston." Everyone's sporting thick Boston accents with Sam Adams Boston Lager in hand, as jokes range from "getting that jail body," to spotty internet connections and multiple Tom Brady references. Ending banner message: "From Boston With Love."

FL's JDub's Brewing filed for chapter-11 bankruptcy, reported Sarasota Herald Tribune, as co cited coronavirus as "the determining factor in the filing." "Once spring training was cancelled, followed by the mandatory closures of bars and restaurants, our most profitable month of the year literally turned into our worst ever, in the course of one day," owner Jermey Joerger detailed in Facebook post. So co filed for bankruptcy 1 mo ago, only shortly after closing its taproom on Mar 20.

Just 1.3 share pts separated craft cans and bottles in Nielsen all outlet plus convenience data for 4 wks thru Apr 18. Bottles down 3% for 4wks despite total craft volume growing near 14% this period. Craft cans up 38% same period. Pushed cans to 49.3 share of volume, bringing bottles back to 50.6. Bottle share of craft down over 4 pts for 4 wk period compared to 52-wks thru 4/18. And drastic change compared to prior 52 wks (ending 4/20/2019) when bottles near 63 share of craft volume in Nielsen off-premise scans. At this rate, cans on tap to be top off-premise craft package. Broad acceptance of cans among smaller taproom-focused brewers, which don't sell can packs thru scans, suggests scales may have already tipped and already put cans on top overall.

New Glarus Brewing is goin' all in on keg refunds, offering 100% credit for all returned Spotted Cow, Moon Man and Two Women kegs produced by Jan 15 2020 or earlier, co announced to its distribs. "While many kegs are still within code, we are pulling them back to make sure we have fresh beer in the market," co wrote. So far, we've only seen MN's Summit take refund level this far - again, logistics of keg retrieval/disposal are certainly easier and less costly for cos like Summit and New Glarus with vast majority (all in New Glarus' case) of volume sold in one state. But New Glarus sold sizable 28.5% of its total volume on draft, according to WI Dept of Revenue Stats. So the offer covers a substantial amount of biz.

CBA shipments and depletions slipped 6% and revs were down 8% in Q1, "primarily attributed to the sharp decline in draft sales in March 2020 as a result of the closure of most on-premise retail locations across the country," co announced. Indeed, draft volume declined 25% to 28,200 bbls while packaged volume flattish (-0.5%) at 126,200 bbls. Draft was nearly 23% of CBA's total mix in 2019, and slipped to 18% in Q1 following on-premise shutdowns in early-to-mid March. So, CBA, along with several other cos, could be in for an even tuffer Q2 while missing that draft volume.