Beer Marketer's Insights
Join us tomorrow, May 6 at 1pm ET for Part II of the Craft Update webinar series. In just 90 minutes, you'll get an in-depth look at a wide array of data sources, revealing how the US craft biz changed in 2019 and keeps changing so far in 2020. Plus, receive digital copies of both the presentation deck and detailed data reports, allowing you to dig even deeper into the data. From COVID-19's impacts on off-premise scans to state shipments reports, the latest legal cannabis trends to a legal and legislative "heat index," Craft Update offers an exclusive look into the US craft beer biz. Can't make the call tomorrow? Don't worry: all registrants will receive webinar materials as well as access to a recording of the live presentation. Register now.
What will reopening look like? Bumpy, at best, suggest recent glimpses provided in some states that started phasing bizzes back in at end of last wk. That includes Texas, which cleared restaurants to open at 25% capacity as of last Friday, May 1. "The guests were just very excited to be back," a Dallas restaurateur told local WFAA. But other owners chose not to reopen yet, concerned for employees in tight cooking quarters. Restaurants that reopened in Houston are "crawling before they sprint," GM of Brown Distributing, Sean Erney told KVUE. That represents more tough news for smaller brewers. When ordering beer for reopening, restaurants are choosing big-name brands for now and "if they have 20 taps, they're keeping it to 10. If they have traditionally 50 or 100 taps, they're kind of looking at that halfway point," he said.
Weathering the Hazy Storm; Old Nation Grew 24% to 25K Bbls in 2019; COVID-19 Impacts & Response
Following its rapid rise and multiple yrs of triple-digit growth fueled by flagship M-43 hazy IPA, MI's Old Nation grew more modestly in 2019, partly by design and partly due to weathering an influx of competition in hazy IPA category. Old Nation's total volume grew 24% to 25K bbls, founder Travis Pitts shared with CBN. That's right around where co forecasted it would end up for the yr as it aimed to differentiate the portfolio more and expand into several new mkts primarily with boutique indie distribs (see Aug 1 issue). Yet contrary to what's been the case for most regional brewer growth in recent yrs, co sourced all of its growth from out-of-state mkts in 2019 while sales dipped a bit in home state Mich.
Among the last natl brewpub chains standing, BJ's Restaurants took on new investors to keep it on its feet during incredibly difficult times for entire on-premise food & drink sector. Co announced agreement to sell $70 mil in common stock to Act III Holdings, a Boston-based investment firm, and other investors. Act III created by Ron Shaich, past chairman/CEO of Panera Bread. Recall, BJ's is publicly traded restaurant chain with over 200 locations in 29 states, all supplied with house-beer made by co in 5 states plus contract. Shares trading just over $20 today with mkt cap around $400 mil. New "capital raise" announced late last wk, plus "other recent actions...will enhance BJ's liquidity and strengthen our ability to welcome back our team members and re-open dine-in service at our restaurants" when appropriate, said CEO Greg Trojan. BJ's "is generating some of the highest average unit sales and guest traffic metrics in the industry," according to statement from new investor Ron Shaich, who sees "the opportunity to more than double its current restaurant footprint."
Lord Hobo Promotes Nathan Whipple to Prexy; Daniel Shifts to Longer Term Strategic "Initiatives"
MA's Lord Hobo Brewing is promoting from within, bumpin' Nathan Whipple from COO to president, co announced last week. Nathan's been with the co from beginning as COO and served as interim CFO in early stages too. Notably, while Nathan takes over more of day-to-day tasks, founder Daniel Lanigan will shift focus toward "immense long-term opportunities to grow through satellite locations and other strategic partnerships," per release. "I will be devoting my focus and energy to strategic business development initiatives, such as" its big new brewery project in Boston Seaport, as well as "other location expansions and partnerships," he hints.
Some temporary shutdowns of brewery-owned pubs, initiated mid-March due to coronavirus-related restrictions, are becoming permanent. And not just outlets owned by small players. Both AB and FIFCO chose to permanently shutter pubs that operated long before each co owned the craft brands that opened those locations. AB chose not to renew the lease for its Four Peaks pub in Scottsdale, AZ. But that was unrelated to current on-premise shutdown, communications mgr Zach Fowle confirmed with the Arizona Republic. It "had plans to re-evaluate the status of the pub anyway," he said. The location operated as Four Peaks pub for 16 yrs, per paper. Separate, original Four Peaks pub location in Tempe continues to offer food and beer to-go during COVID-19 shutdowns. Taproom at its Tempe brewery remains closed to the public, tho brewery still up and running. AB's focus there will shift to existing locations, including airport pub, Zach said.
Another Rollercoaster Week in Scans: Craft Grew 26% in IRI for 1-Wk Ending Apr 26, Per BWC
Craft segment, along with total beer, wine and spirits biz, saw another significant bump in scans during latest week, IRI data from Bump Williams Consulting's report shows. After slowing to +10% in previous week, craft $$ and volume grew 26% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data for 1 week thru Apr 26. That was nearly on par with total beer $$ growth (+27%) and ahead of total beer volume (+21%). So craft shed less share (-0.07) of total beer $$ to 11.5 and gained 0.3 share of volume to 7.8 in IRI MULC. Tho both wine (+32%) and spirits (+50%) notably outpaced craft beer/total beer. Avg craft prices slightly slipped $-0.02/case to $38.19 for the week while total beer prices grew $1.13/case to $25.79.
MI's top brewers, Founders and Bell's, were the latest established craft brewers to announce their plans to reimburse distribs on costs of kegs going out of code due to COVID-19. Founders will reimburse 50% of delivered cost for all out of code untapped beer for its several core brands - All Day, Solid Gold, Centennial IPA, Unraveled IPA, Reds Rye IPA and seasonals - plus cover 100% of cost for backhauling kegs, including pickup and decanting by 3d parties. Notably, program is available for any of these core brand kegs set to go out of code between Mar 1 and July 31. So Founders is already anticipating on-premise shutdowns/limitations to last thru significant chunk of the summer, it seems. Co also extended code dates to one year for Dirty Bastard, Porter and Breakfast Stout "due to higher malt bills and greater stability." And limited & barrel-aged releases are not included in the recall currently. "We will review, adjust and provide updates as the year continues," Founders notes.
On-Premise Sales Velocity "Flatten[ed] Out" at Down 68% in Nielsen CGA; Improvements Vs March
It's not much, but some positive signs of improving trends on-premise are showing up in latest Nielsen CGA data. After sales velocity initially dropped 75% vs pre-COVID-19 norms in Nielsen CGA, that rate began to "flatten out" at -68% for the week ending April 25. Dollar sales velocity actually improved over the last mo, up 42% for the latest week thru Apr 25 vs week ending March 28. And avg number of checks is up 69% vs week ending Mar 28.
La La Land in Scans Cont'd: Top-16 Craft Cos Got 3/4 of Segment Growth in IRI thru Apr 19
Larger craft cos are still livin' in another world when it comes to scan data. Even as trends seem to be coming back to reality, craft growth for the year meaningfully shifted to the largest companies in tracked channels. Recall, craft segment accelerated to +9% YTD thru Apr 19 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data (both $$ and volume), including +16% for latest 4 wks. But the top-16 craft cos in IRI make up 3/4 of total craft $$ gain and over 80% of volume gain YTD. Compare that to 2019, when same group of top craft cos made up under half of total craft gains.

