Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

That’s what AB brand mgt veep Bob Lachky told St. Lou Post Dispatch.  Ultra sales are 3x larger than AB’s original projections, he said, and show no signs of slowing down.  In yr 2, AB will expand distribution and invest more mktg $$.  Ultra has 80% off-premise distribution, but only 40% on-premise distribution, reported Caroline Levy of UBS Warburg last week.  Meanwhile, Miller billboard campaign in St. Lou and elsewhere advertising that Lite has half the carbs of Bud Light.   “We have the orginal low carb beer with all of the taste,” Miller’s Molly Reilly told Post Dispatch.    

Mass beer mkt down 79,000 bbls, 6% thru Apr. AB outperformed with 2% drop. Coors and Heineken also gained share YTD with 3% and 2% drops respectively. But Miller down 21,000 bbls, 15% even with much improved Apr (down 2%). Other big drop: Boston Beer down 14,000 bbls, 24.5%.

Miller just broke new campaign for Pilsner Urquell with tv in Boston and Chicago, according to Ad Age.  Pilsner sold less than 2 mil cases in US last yr, but up 31% in supers thru Jun 15, according to IRI.  Yet Czech shipments up just 4.5% thru May and less than 1% of imports.   Meanwhile, Miller also moved its Foster’s brand to Weiden & Kennedy ad agency and parted ways with J. Walter Thompson.

Sez ex-owner of Willow in Tex has “no standing” to sue Coors for nixing higher priced deal in 2001 than Dennis subsequently got. Dennis was not licensed distrib under Tex law, argues Coors, and wasn’t party to any pertinent “agreement” with Coors.

Actually, a sign of improvement.  C-Store volume had been down 0.8% thru May 18.  Got to even YTD over next 4 weeks, according to ACNielsen data.  Dollar sales up 1.8% thru Jun 14.  AB eked out 0.6% volume gain YTD, picked up 0.3 share to 63.  Miller off 3%, lost 0.6 share to 18.5.   Coors down 4%, off 0.3 share to 8.2.  Interesting import picture in this channel.  Little sign of volume weakness: volume up 8.5% YTD; but $$ sales up slightly less, 8.3%, so avg prices ain’t moving up.  Heineken USA volume jumped 21%, Modelo brands up 9%.  Among top-6 domestic brands, only Bud Light up (+3.3%).

Modelo exports jumped 193,000 bbls, 7% Apr-Jun with an “especially sharp spike” at end of qtr, Modelo reported.   Hadda be a great Jun; Apr-May imports to US from Mexico (including FEMSA) down 6.6%. Yet for 6 mos, Modelo exports flat at 5.1 mil bbls.  (Recall Modelo recently reduced its export growth guidance for full yr to 6%.)   Modelo export revs up 2.4% to just below $500 mil; price per bbl up 2.2%.  Total cost of goods sold dipped 1.1%, oper expenses up 1.3%.  Modelo has even fatter operating margin than AB: 29.3% in 2d qtr.   Total corporate oper income jumped 8% to $515 mil for 6 mos.

AB sales-to-retailers up just 0.3% in 2d qtr and for 6 mos, it reported, noting “unfavorable weather over much of the country.” But rev per bbl up 3% and AB still met Wall St earnings estimate of 75 cents per share despite softer than expected sales. Shipments up 0.7% in 2d qtr and 1% for 6 mos. AB share of shipments at 50 for 6 mos, up 1.6. AB earnings before income taxes on domestic beer jumped $124 mil, 8% to $1.675 bil for 6 mos. In 2d qtr, Michelob family up in 30% range, Bud family "down slightly," CFO Randy Baker said during AB conference call. More in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS.
After 2-yr trial in pilot store, Starbucks Japan just changed charter to allow sale of beer and other alc at all 470 stores in country. Change is one of several moves to help boost sales as Starbucks reaches "saturation" in Japan, co's largest mkt outside of US, wrote Wall St Jnl. Pilot store in Kobe sold fellow Wash brand Redhook; no word on whether it'll be offered in other locations.

Gambrinus added to its collection of specialty brewers as it bought a Calif micro called Golden Pacific Brewing Co, wrote San Mateo County Times.  Golden Pacific shipped about 20,000 bbls in 2002.  Gambrinus also owns Spoetzel (Shiner) in Tex and Bridgeport in Oreg and Pete’s that totaled about 400,000 bbls in 2002, about 7 share of specialty segment.

Including a $3.00 mail-in rebate, Miller has $10.99 30-packs of Lite and MGD in big group of home d’s (NY’s unique 4th tier). Compare to $12.99 price for Heineken 12-packs, $11.99 for Bud 20-packs. Home d’s are about 1/3 of NY biz. Miller has a low share in NY, but these prices ain’t exactly premium. Most aggressively priced top import? Foster’s at $8.49 per 12-pack, including $1.50 mail-in rebate. Prices thru Jul 16.