Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Consumer price index for beer up 2.5%, outpacing general inflation for a change as CPI for all items was up 1.8%. Spirits (+1.7%) and wine (+1.1%) prices up too but lag beer growth.
Large beer distrib (also banker / insurer / auto dealer) John Anderson jumped to #256 in Forbes ranking of richest Americans this yr, up 93 spots from last yr. John's worth $900 mil, according to Forbes. Coors/Corona distrib and soft drink bottler Harold Honickman close behind with reported net worth of $850 mil-- he rose to #277 this yr, up from #306 in '01. Forbes detailed philanthropic efforts by both; including John's family contributes to LA Children's Hospital while Harold supports Museum of Art in Philly. Six other bev guys made list, including former Seagram's honcho Edgar Bronfman Sr.(#80), Kendall-Jackson's Jess Jackson (#100), Ernest Gallo (#272) and others.

Seems Diageo in headlines daily.  Just as Diageo celebrated groundbreaking stadium signage agreements with 3 NFL teams for its spirits brands (correction: not malternatives), Wall St Jnl today focused on “stalling” malternative mkt. “Diageo has the most to lose,” wrote Wall St Jnl, if malternatives “do succumb to the same fate as the wine cooler fad.”  Noted while other spirits co’s hedged their bets by partnering with brewers, Smirnoff got more profits by going it alone.  But as Morgan Stanley spirits analyst noted, “If Smirnoff Ice drops from being 1% of the beer market to 0.5%, you’re looking at taking 2% to 3% off Diageo’s top line growth.”   “I firmly believe they (malternatives) are here to stay,” Diageo chief exec Paul Walsh told Wall St Jnl.  One plus for Diageo: Smirnoff Ice brand likely to survive shakeout in malternative category because of advantage of being first in mkt backed with “considerable marketing muscle,” according to analysts WSJ interviewed.

Malt bev $$$ sales in c-stores up 5.4% for 12 weeks thru Aug 31, reports ACNielsen. That’s regular beer (including imports), light beer plus malternatives. Volume up 2.9%. Malternative volume up 70%, $$$ sales up 77%. Had 2.8 share of volume, 4.9 share of dollars.
Longtime leader and 6th generation scion of Stroh family died yesterday from brain cancer at 74. Peter was a gracious gentleman and a man of vision. He foresaw demise of regional brewers, acted early to buy Schaefer and Schlitz. At one time, Stroh was #3 brewer, selling 24 mil bbls but ultimately sold to Pabst in 99. Funeral service will be at Christ Church in Grosse Point Farms, Mich on Saturday at 1:00.
Volume “in line” with “expectations but below last year,” said SABMiller, without defining it further. SABMiller added that volume decline was “offset by continuing improvement in pricing trends and higher contract brewing volumes.” Meanwhile, Miller just announced another sr exec change. Veep corp affairs Tina Walls got promoted and will go back to PM in Oct. More in Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS.
Wisc Shipments Snapshot Total Wisc volume up 2% thru May (don’t know what’s happened since). AB up 4%, Miller up 1% and Coors up 5%. For 12 mos thru May, AB share up 0.3 to 31.7, Miller down 0.8 to 45.6.

Beer biz off 1.1% in Milwaukee supers YTD thru Aug 11, IRI reports.  AB up 4.9%, picked up 1.1 share to 19.1.  Hometown Miller off 3.9%, dipped 1.6 share to a still-mighty 54.5.  Pabst still has nearly 10 share in Milwaukee, down 3.6%; dipped 0.2 share to 9.6.  Coors has only 3.5 share here and off 4.2% thru Aug 11.  Modelo and Guinness each up about 10% YTD; each has 2-3 share.  Miller has top 3 brands in city – Lite, High Life and MGD -- each down YTD 3-8%. Thirteen-wk trends even stronger for AB (+7.7%), softer for Miller (-5.2%).  Only bright spots for Miller: Mil’s Best Light/MB Ice, top-10 brands here, each up YTD; High Life Light +31% YTD.  Blast from past:  Blatz, #20 brand in city, up 36% thru 8/11.      

 

NY Times ad columnist Stuart Elliot added to spiraling skepticism on malternatives 9/12.  Category “starting to show signs it is a fad rather than a trend,” he wrote.  Miller has already put natl ads for Stoli/Sauza brands on hold, Times reported.  Miller spokesperson said it will focus on “retail initiatives and trade promotion” for now.  Responding to talk that Capt Morgan Gold a “huge disappointment,” Diageo spokesman reminded Smirnoff Ice was a “phenomenal launch” and “people may have had similar expectations, and maybe we did as well.”  Meanwhile, lengthy analysis of RTDs (not just in US) by Deutsche Bank makes argument that ready-to-drink is “a fundamentally strong concept that is proving to be too successful in too many diverse markets to be merely a fad.”  Suggested too “the category still has significant room to expand,” tho easy gains already gotten.  Interestingly, DB noted AB is “past master” at using its “considerable influence in the US to blunt new competition” and even speculated AB behind BATF move to reclassify malternatives as spirits.  Bearish/bullish signs in Tex too:  Smirnoff Ice down 4% for 7 mos in Tex following huge Jul drop, but Skyy Blue pickin' up steam.

Heineken USA shipments up 11%, while depletions up 7+%, Heineken NV told analysts in conference call yesterday; numbers bolstered by easy comps (last yr there was "dip" in shipments after HUSA opened warehouses in US). Meanwhile, co "pleasantly surprised" as Heineken brand sales volume up 10% and Amstel Light up 18% in 1st half in US. Lookin' forward, Heineken expects 2d half to be "at least as good" helped by nationwide (except West Coast) 2.5% price increase started in Apr, which will be completed Oct-Nov. Heineken total oper profit up 13% in 1st half to 581 mil euros.