It wasn’t just Oct; beer biz got softer yet in supers thru Nov 24. In fact, supermkt volume down 6.7% for 4 weeks thru Nov 24, according to IRI, following 0.2% drop for 4 wks thru Nov 3 (supers about 20% of total biz, but trends generally better there than overall). This recent softness includes ugly double-digit declines for 2 weeks thru Nov 24, compared to 3% gain YTD thru Oct. So what gives? "Soft patch" at retail because of timing of Thanksgiving, lousier weather this yr, strong volume "comp" last yr, "initial consumer sticker shock" to Oct 1 price hikes and weaker economy, according to Bill Pecoriello at Morgan Stanley. Thanksgiving a week later this year and lotsa purchases actually made in days following Thanksgiving. Lotsa eyes on Nov 25-Dec 1 week; figures not available at presstime, but even with a strong last week, Nov likely down.

Interestingly, beer pricing still held up very well thru Nov 24 as avg AB prices in supers up 3%+ for 4 and 13 weeks and Miller’s avg prices up 3.6% for 4 weeks and 4.4% for 13 weeks. Avg prices paid for Modelo brands up 4%+ last 13 weeks too. Coors, Labatt USA and Heineken prices relatively unchanged. With beer biz down recently and lotsa pressure on pricing of so many other goods, more are questioning how long healthy beer pricing can last. Retail environment is increasingly dicey with price wars going on in fast food, tobacco and other related bizzes. Price pressure ain’t letting up; giant super chain Kroger’s warned of lower earnings as it cut prices. Wal-Mart is increasingly eating into hides of supers too with its low prices (note: Wal-Mart no longer participates in IRI data, even tho it’s #1 grocer and growing rapidly). And "competitive prices pressuring holiday sales," front-paged Supermkt News post-Thanksgiving. WSJ reporters chided brewers for raising price in such an economic environment. Theme of article was that beer stocks have outperformed in recent yrs because of beer industry’s ability to raise price, but that scenario under pressure.