April domestic taxpaid shipments unchanged, estimated Matt Hein of Beer Institute. That’s impressive when you consider there were 2 less selling days in April 2000, plus lousy weather in much of east. So domestic taxpaid shipments up 100-200,000 bbls for 4 mos 2000. But remember there’s 2 more days in May 2000. On top of it, much easier comparisons coming: May-Jul 99 domestic shipments down slightly each mo, off 450,000 bbls, 1% for 3 mos. Then too, retail trends continue up at much sharper pace. Beer biz up 6% in supers for 4 weeks thru Apr 23, up double-digits in drug stores and mass merchandise, according to IRI. AB and Coors each up at double-digit pace in this data, while Miller up slightly. In all channels, big brewers didn’t do as well as these numbers suggest. Miller just wrote distribs that distrib "forecasts for May and June are below Miller’s forecasts and recent trends." Miller is "confident that our forecasts reflect our business trends," wrote sr veep Jim Mortensen, so "we request that you order additional product that will prevent disruption to our brewery operations." "May is off to a strong start," Jim added.

AB gained 1 or more share in 17 of 40 states where data available in 99, including 5 states where it gained 2 or more share. It picked up share in 33 of these 40 states. Once again AB really made hay in midwest and west. Gained 2.4 share in Ia and Mont, 2.3 in Minn, 2.1 in Wisc, 2.0 in SD, 1.9 in Wyo, 1.8 in Tex. Passed 60 share for 1^st time in Neb and Ut. Had 60 share or more in 9 of these states and gained share in 8 of 9 states where it had over 60 share. In 8 other states, AB share over 55. Its highest share: 64.7 in Miss where it gained 1.7 share. Lowest share: 29 in Wisc, where it gained 2 share. In all, AB over 50 share in 25 of 40 reporting states. AB lost share in 4 New Eng states, New Mex, and HI. While AB had 50.1 share in 40 reporting states, it had just under 40 share in 10 non-reporting states (including NY, NJ, Penn) and exports.

Miller gained share in 22 reporting states. Had big share gains in West where it acquired lotsa volume from Pabst. That included 4.7 share gain in Ida and 4.1 in Oreg. Gained 2 share or more in Mont, Nev and Wash too. Gained 1.8 in big Calif. But Miller continued to lose share in New Eng states: down 1 or more share in 4 of 5. Miller also lost share in each state in West South Cent (Ark, La, Okla and Tex) and majority of southern and midwestern states, tho it gained 0.6 in Fla and 1.4 in SC. Held or gained share in each of 5 East North Cent states (Ill, Ind, Mich, Oh and Wisc). Miller’s highest share: 46.6 in Wisc, where it gained 0.5 share. Lowest: 11 in tiny Vt and Wyo. Miller share over 25 in 7 states and under 15 in 7 states. Had 18 share in non-reporting states and exports.

Coors gained share in 26 of 40 reporting states. Gained 1.2 share in Ind and 0.8 share in Oh, with double-digit volume gains in each state. Also gained 0.9 share in La. Coors gained 0.5 share or less in 23 states where it gained share. Share up in every state in Southeast, Pacific and East North Central regions. But Coors lost share in 7 of 8 states in Mountain region, including 1 share or greater loss in NM, Nev, Ut and Wyo. Gained only in home state Colo (up 0.3). Note: Mountain region volume up 4%, so Coors volume up in several of these states, but still lost share. Coors had its highest share in Mtn region too: at 28 in Ida. Over 20 in just 1 other state (HI) and over 15 in 7 others (several in Mountain). Coors lowest shares in East North Cent where Miller strongest: 2.8 in Wisc, 3.3 in Ill and 3.1 in Mich. Coors at 15 share in non-reporting states and exports.

Pabst comparisons also distorted because of volume it bought and sold, but Stroh/Pabst combo lost share in each of 40 states. Even tho Pabst almost tripled in size, it still had small share in most states. Pabst over 15 share in just Oreg and over 10 in just 7 other states. Under 4 in every New Eng state. Its lowest: 1.3 in NH and 1.5 in Okla. While Pabst down everywhere, All Others (brewers below top 4 and importers) up almost everywhere. All Others share up in 35 of 40 states. Gained 1 or more share in 10 states. That included 3.2 share gain in NH, 2.7 in RI and 2.7 in NM. All Others lowest shares: just 2 in SD and 2.7 share in Iowa. Highest: 26.8 in Vt. All Others over 20 share in 5 states, including big Calif (21.6) and Mass (25.2). Gained 1 or more share in each of 5.

AB gained 1 or more share in 17 of 40 states where data available in 99, including 5 states where it gained 2 or more share. It picked up share in 33 of these 40 states. Once again AB really made hay in midwest and west. Gained 2.4 share in Ia and Mont, 2.3 in Minn, 2.1 in Wisc, 2.0 in SD, 1.9 in Wyo, 1.8 in Tex. Passed 60 share for 1^st time in Neb and Ut. Had 60 share or more in 9 of these states and gained share in 8 of 9 states where it had over 60 share. In 8 other states, AB share over 55. Its highest share: 64.7 in Miss where it gained 1.7 share. Lowest share: 29 in Wisc, where it gained 2 share. In all, AB over 50 share in 25 of 40 reporting states. AB lost share in 4 New Eng states, New Mex, and HI. While AB had 50.1 share in 40 reporting states, it had just under 40 share in 10 non-reporting states (including NY, NJ, Penn) and exports.

Miller gained share in 22 reporting states. Had big share gains in West where it acquired lotsa volume from Pabst. That included 4.7 share gain in Ida and 4.1 in Oreg. Gained 2 share or more in Mont, Nev and Wash too. Gained 1.8 in big Calif. But Miller continued to lose share in New Eng states: down 1 or more share in 4 of 5. Miller also lost share in each state in West South Cent (Ark, La, Okla and Tex) and majority of southern and midwestern states, tho it gained 0.6 in Fla and 1.4 in SC. Held or gained share in each of 5 East North Cent states (Ill, Ind, Mich, Oh and Wisc). Miller’s highest share: 46.6 in Wisc, where it gained 0.5 share. Lowest: 11 in tiny Vt and Wyo. Miller share over 25 in 7 states and under 15 in 7 states. Had 18 share in non-reporting states and exports.

Coors gained share in 26 of 40 reporting states. Gained 1.2 share in Ind and 0.8 share in Oh, with double-digit volume gains in each state. Also gained 0.9 share in La. Coors gained 0.5 share or less in 23 states where it gained share. Share up in every state in Southeast, Pacific and East North Central regions. But Coors lost share in 7 of 8 states in Mountain region, including 1 share or greater loss in NM, Nev, Ut and Wyo. Gained only in home state Colo (up 0.3). Note: Mountain region volume up 4%, so Coors volume up in several of these states, but still lost share. Coors had its highest share in Mtn region too: at 28 in Ida. Over 20 in just 1 other state (HI) and over 15 in 7 others (several in Mountain). Coors lowest shares in East North Cent where Miller strongest: 2.8 in Wisc, 3.3 in Ill and 3.1 in Mich. Coors at 15 share in non-reporting states and exports.

Pabst comparisons also distorted because of volume it bought and sold, but Stroh/Pabst combo lost share in each of 40 states. Even tho Pabst almost tripled in size, it still had small share in most states. Pabst over 15 share in just Oreg and over 10 in just 7 other states. Under 4 in every New Eng state. Its lowest: 1.3 in NH and 1.5 in Okla. While Pabst down everywhere, All Others (brewers below top 4 and importers) up almost everywhere. All Others share up in 35 of 40 states. Gained 1 or more share in 10 states. That included 3.2 share gain in NH, 2.7 in RI and 2.7 in NM. All Others lowest shares: just 2 in SD and 2.7 share in Iowa. Highest: 26.8 in Vt. All Others over 20 share in 5 states, including big Calif (21.6) and Mass (25.2). Gained 1 or more share in each of 5.

No question that 1990s was the decade of light beers and imports. That's what analysis of segment data developed by Beer Marketer

As pace of global brewer consolidation picked up--several big deals already announced thru mid 2000--AB kept top spot among world’s brewers by almost 50 mil bbls without doin’ any major new international deals for last 3 years. But Miller, also quiet on intl acquisition front, slipped a few notches to #6. Coors held at #13. Not long ago, Miller was #2, or #3 depending on how you counted. It was already behind Heineken if you include in Heineken’s total its licensed volume and volume of "affiliated brewers." (Licensed volume is like contract-brewed. That’s when another brewer in foreign country actually produces your brands.) Following several big international deals in last year-—top 2 merging in Brazil, Interbrew buying Whitbread, SAB buying breweries in Eastern Europe--Miller fell to #6 spot. Then too, other brewers closing in on Miller: Scottish & Newcastle’s recent purchase of Kronenbourg from Danone in France, plus #2 brewers in Italy and Belgium, will put S&N only 3-4 mil bbls behind Miller. And just this week, Danish brewer Carlsberg announced a deal with Norwegian co that owns Ringnes and 50-share of fast growing Baltic Bevs active in Russia and Ukraine. That group sold well over 40 mil bbls in 99 too.

Another way to look at this change. Until 99, AB was only brewer in the world that sold more than 50 mil bbls, unless you include volume of all of Heineken’s international partners with Heineken total. In 99, AB sold about 103 mil bbls worldwide, including licensed beer. But after announced or closed deals since Jan 1 99, Heineken at about 58 mil bbls, Ambev (merged Brahma and Antarctica in Brazil) at about 54 mil bbls, SAB well over 50 mil bbls, and Interbrew at 49 mil bbls. Some of those brewers getting real heft. And they blew past Miller in last few years. In 95, Miller had 17-mil-bbl lead over SAB, 16-mil-bbl lead over Interbrew; now Miller’s 5+ mil bbls behind SAB, 5 mil bbls behind Interbrew. Miller sold a mil bbls less in 99 than 95, while each of those brewers picked up at least 20 mil bbls. Gotta note too, ain’t just global beer biz that's consolidating. Number 2 intl food retailer Carrefour, just made $16.7 bil purchase, Supermkt News reported. Made it $80-bil co in revs, about half of Wal-Mart sales in 99. Eight other food retailers sold over $30 bil in 99: Kroger and Albertson’s in US-only, others all intl.

Imports put up impressive 420,000-bbl, 10.6% gain in 1st qtr 2000, going against whopping 21% gain imports had in 1st qtr 99. Dutch shipments got almost half of import gain in 1st qtr 2000: up 198,000 bbls, 21% for 3 mos. (Heineken up 19% in supers thru May 14, according to IRI, up 8-9% in all channels.) Irish shipments surprisingly strong in 1st qtr too: up 81,000 bbls, 35% for 3 mos. Imports from other leading countries up mid-single-digits: Mexican shipments up 71,000 bbls, 4.6% in 1st qtr, tho down 7% in Mar. Canadian shipments up 41,000 bbls, 7%; U.K. shipments up 12,000 bbls, 5%; and German shipments up 8,000 bbls, 3.5%. For 12 mos, remarkably similar trends for imports from most leading countries: Mexican shipments up 1/2 mil bbls, 8%; Dutch up 383,000 bbls, 9%; UK up 9%; Irish and German up 7%. Canadian shipments up 2%. Total imports up 1.2 mil bbls, 7% for 12 mos thru Mar 2000. Import comparisons will get much easier as yr goes along. While Apr-May 99 were up 20% or so, imports up only 1% in 2d half 99. Interesting sidebars: Canadian shipments growth is deceptive. While Labatt up, Molson down double-digits. But other changes will boost country trend: Lowenbrau now brewed in Canada; soon some Guinness brands will be brewed in Canada as well.

Miller’s pricing and trade mktg group sent May 11 memo to its regional sales development mgrs on "Coors’ Cost Analysis." Asked ‘em to survey 2-4 Coors distribs in their region on many questions regarding Coors biz practices, like FOBs in Tex, Fla, Chi, cents per case mktg fund, price promo splits, and many many more. Info "will be useful to confirm or dispel several perceptions that Coors products are more profitable than Miller products and therefore should be more aggressively sold in shared houses," Miller wrote. "This information will prove useful as we proceed with the execution of our shared house strategies." Suggested list included 25 extremely detailed questions on everything from additional capital costs to install a controlled temp warehouse, to "are freight costs adjusted for fuel surcharges?", and "are there certain packages that seem to have vastly different laid-in-costs between Coors and us?" Another key question from Miller: "In shared houses, what percentage of distrib's volume is related to Coors products and what percent is MBCo? Does the relationship have any impact on decisions regarding space allocation in premium sets or is it solely based on specific SKU profitability (i.e. Coors Light vs Miller Lite)?"

Predictably, Coors none too pleased with this request. On May 25, Coors veep Tim Owston wrote all Miller/Coors distribs that "Coors considers all information regarding our pricing, sales/marketing plans, and expenditures to be confidential and protected under the Coors distributorship agreement." Coors enclosed a copy of Miller’s memo to all Miller/Coors distribs. "We request that you not provide any information to Miller Brewing Company and if you have, we request that you submit to" local Coors area veep "a copy of all your responses." Miller looked to get responses by e-mail by May 26. At presstime, INSIGHTS doesn’t know how many Miller/Coors distribs responded to request.

When prexy Leo Kiely said in early 99 that Coors needed to grow its volume 5% per yr in future, that sure seemed like a stretch objective. Coors had grown almost 3% per yr in 97-98, but it was up only 1% in 1st qtr 99 when Leo raised the bar. Since then, Coors really picked up steam. Shipments grew 4.4% last 9 mos of 99. What's more, Coors sales-to-retailers also grew 5.5% last 32 weeks of 99. And from Jan 1 thru mid-May 2000 sales-to-retailers up 7-8%. That means Coors sales-to-retailers up over 5% on a 52-week moving basis for several weeks running. Shipments ain’t growing quite as quickly (7% STR vs 2% shipments growth in 1st qtr). In fact, Coors growth so much faster than it anticipated that recently it's unable to get all the beer to distribs that they want in some areas, tho Coors execs say this isn’t a problem. In supers, Coors doin' even better; up 12% ytd thru May 14, according to IRI. Another striking aspect of Coors growth: it’s up solidly almost everywhere in 2000; up 5% or better in each of Calif, Tex, Fla and NY, plus double-digit growth in midwest and southeast, we hear. Then too, each major Coors brand also getting good growth yr-to-date.

........ Whoops! NBWA's impressive-looking annual report quotes us inaccurately. We never said "in the not-so-distant future, the top 10 beer wholesalers within A-B, Miller and Coors will comprise nearly 50% of the total beer market" or anything like it. More consolidation sure, but that would be at least 47 mil cases per distrib. ...........Midsized western distrib seeks controller. ,

On Op Ed page of Washington Post, leader of fight against gun industry came out with big compliments for alcohol biz, emphasizing beer efforts. "I do have some advice for the NRA and its allies: Use the alcohol industry as a model for the gun industry," said NY Senator Charles Schumer. Pointed out that back in 1982 alcohol industry "under siege." But "beer makers embarked on a massive campaign to reduce drunk driving and stop sales to teenagers." Drunk driving deaths then dropped by 10,000, he pointed out. NRA "can follow the model of the alcohol industry and become part of the solution, or it can follow the model of another industry that faced similar circumstances but chose to stand and fight: the tobacco industry.... It would be smarter for the NRA to know when to say when."