Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

At presstime, day after hundreds of beer distribs and brewery execs hit hill to support estate tax repeal, House just voted to eliminate estate tax over next 10 yrs. Next stop: Senate.
Alc-related highway deaths increased last yr for 1st time in five yrs, reports govt tho final figures not yet in. Higher than 98 figure too, but still lower than 97 and down nearly 30% over 10 yrs. Note too: % of total highway fatalities that are alc-related still at all-time low of 38%. Total highway death ticked up 0.5% to 41,800. Definition of alc-related: when a driver or non-occupant (usually a pedestrian, could be cyclist) in fatal crash has 0.01 BAC or higher.
Labatt USA at 5.1 share in Mich in 2000, up 0.8 share. Shipped 345,000 bbls there, 135,000 bbls ahead of Coors. Labatt passed declining Pabst to become #3; ahead by 7,000 bbls. Its import biz up 19%, 52,000 bbls. Labatt should stay #3 in 2001, even as Coors adds Molson. Imports at 10 share, up 12%, 72,000 bbls while total shipments up just 0.6%, 43,000 bbls. Miller dropped 6%, 99,000 bbls and 1.6 share. Off 8% last 6 mos. AB up 1%, 0.4 share to 55.7.
US population figures show 281 mil people in US in 2000, about 7 mil more than previously thought. That means US per capita consumption was 22.1 gallons last yr. That?s basically same as it?s been since mid-90s and 10% below peak.
AB piled on spending for Busch brand in 4th qtr. Up $6 mil, 466%. Raised Bud Light/Michelob support about 10%, but cut Bud spending. AB media spending for top brands up 8% to $81 mil, according to Competitive Media Reporting. Coors jacked up Keystone family support $1.7 mil, upped Coors Light/Zima, cut Original Coors/Killian?s. Add it up: a 2% increase for major Coors brands to $31 mil. Miller outspent Coors on major brands by $7 mil tho it slashed MGD support by al-most 3/4. Held Lite support at $26 mil, raised spending on Mil?s Best, cut High Life. All in all, Miller 4th qtr media $$ off $7 mil, 16%. Note: big 4th qtr cuts for Modelo, Labatt USA brands; Heineken kept pourin? it on.
Barton too made a surprise move. Terminated 3 distribs selling 3.2 beer in grocery stores and went with AB distribs there. Only Corona Light sold in grocery stores, and not much of it, but that?s where most of state biz is. Barton has separate network in liquor stores for ?strong? beer.
In a move that stunned many, Gambrinus last week appointed AB?s branch as its 3d distrib on Modelo brands in Boston. Gambrinus already has 2 distribs in Boston, Burke Dist and Metropolitan, who collectively sell near 1 mil cases of Modelo brands. So now there are 3 distribs, in-cluding AB?s branch, competing for roughly same territory on key import in major metro mkt. Recall that Burke bought Miller and other brands from Metropolitan last fall, but didn?t purchase its Gambrinus volume. Now both have Gambrinus franchises with diluted value.
Heard often from distribs, execs at NBWA/Brewers Legis conference: Jan sales pretty good, but Feb and particularly Mar were lousy, especially for domestic brands. In 1st qtr, sales-to-retailers for AB barely up, Coors flattish, Miller down more than 5%. Imports still strong, Smirnoff Ice goin? fine in most mkts. No way beer biz up 1.5% (anticipated by many) so far.
03/26/2001

Correction

Vast majority of Carlsberg that comes to US, brewed in Canada, not Denmark. So Carlsberg shipped 5x what we wrote, about 350,000 cases. Labatt USA sez Carlsberg up 17% in 1st qtr 2001.
State excise tax battles are heatin? up in 2001, even as brewers hope for relief at fed level. In Mass, proposal by state Senator to add 5% retail tax on alc bevs is earmarked for prevention and treatment of ?substance abuse.? Got heavy play in Boston Globe last 2 days. Backers point out Mass alc bev tax revs declined in last 20 yrs, while tobacco tax revs doubled. A ?Joe-Six-PAC? already being built to fight tax, and lieut gov said such a bill would be vetoed. But pressure?s on. And in Arkansas, state senate just passed bill (21-8) that would impose 1% tax on all retail beer sales, earmarked to help pay for child care for low-income families.