AB off 2%, 12,000 bbls in NH in 2001.  Down 1.6 share to 53.9, 3.6 share below AB peak in NH.  As Coors up 5.5%, pulled even with Miller (-2%) at 11 share.  If trends continue, NH will be 9^th state Coors has higher share than Miller.  In Vt, All Others (brewers below top-4 including imports) climbed to 32.9 share in 2001, up 0.6 share.  AB, Coors up slightly, but didn’t gain share.  Miller up slightly, not including Molson.  At 6.8 share. 

The % of college freshman who say they drink beer hit 40-yr low in fall 2001, with 47.1% reporting they drank beer “frequently or occasionally” in past yr. The % declined steadily in recent yrs and is now 36% below peak of 73.7% who said they were beer drinkers back in 1982, according to annual UCLA study.  Meanwhile, wine/liquor continue to be consumed by larger % of freshmen.  In 2001, 53.7% of frosh reported they consumed wine/liquor in past yr.  Good news/bad news: While fewer underage consumers drinking beer, industry may not see boost from larger demographic when this group turns 21.      

Six mos after $50 mil verdict plus interest, war of words continues even in the media.  “We’re confident we will repeal this.  Then there’s no judgment and no interest,” AB atty Peter Moll told Palm Beach Post after it filed 200-page complaint with Florida Bar about Maris attys’ conduct and said it will continue to fight. “They never had anyone stand up to them and go toe-to-toe with them,” responded Maris atty Willie Gary. “But we did and we’d do it again. Nobody is going to back me down.”  Fla Bar got involved because judge in Maris case had appointed special master to review alleged misconduct by both sides.  Special master concluded atty actions were “an insult to the integrity of the legal system.”  Willie says: “We did nothing wrong. Those people got a taste of their own medicine and we just didn’t let them get away with anything.”  Prior to this, Gary’s record with Fla Bar “nearly spotless,” wrote Post.  Meanwhile, AB atty Peter Moll estimated he’s won “at least 12 trials pitting Busch against its distributors.”   So the battle rages on.

As AB product nears launch next Monday, Rep Frank Wolf tore into reported plans to advertise it during Olympics on House floor yesterday.  NBC, Wolf said, “is allowing direct marketing to youth of a well-known brand of hard liquor by piggybacking onto another product.... Bacardi is a name people associate with hard liquor, period.”  NBC’s “responsibility policy of alcohol advertising…is a sham,” he thundered.  Recall that Wolf led Congressional charge to pass .08 mandate.  At same time, liquor ad critics from AMA to CSPI cranked up efforts to make NBC reverse its Dec decision to run liquor ads.  Ironic that Bacardi Silver takin’ heat before it’s intro’d, tho Smirnoff Ice ads have been runnin' for over a year.  Lots more analysis in Feb Alc Issues INSIGHTS.  

As Scottish & Newcastle agreed to buy Finnish brewer Hartwell for $1.8 bil, that?s 3d deal in last 6 mos for $1.5 to $2 bil, including Interbrew?s buy of Beck?s and sale of Car-ling to Coors. S&N offered 10.1x EBITDA. Its debt-to-equity ratio will rise to 121%. Gotta wonder if this deal affects possibility of SCAR scenario (merger between S&N, SAB, & Miller). Stay tuned.

Looks like moderate drinking doesn’t just help blood flow to heart, but good for heart muscle itself, say 2 new studies in Annals of Internal Medicine.  Conclusion 1: “When consumed in moderation, alcohol appears to protect against congestive heart failure.”  Conclusion 2: “In patients with alcohol cardiomyopathy” (enlarged, weakened heart muscle), “both abstinence and controlled drinking of up to" 4 per day "comparably effective in promoting improvement in cardiac function.”  

Smirnoff Ice grabbed a striking 1.2 share in its 1^st full yr of  Tex shipments at 215,000 bbls.  That’s as big as Shiner and much bigger than Heineken in 2d biggest beer mkt.   AB growth slowed, but shipments still up 328,000 bbls, 3.6% and its share climbed 1.5 to 51.9.  Bud Light at 25.6 share there; up 359,000 bbls, 8%.  AB gained 16 share in Tex last 10 yrs.  Meanwhile, Miller dropped 273,000 bbls, 7% (including big Dec gain) and lost 1.6 share to 21.  Down 12 share in Tex last 10 yrs.  Coors also had soft yr; down 78,000 bbls, 3% (off 6% in 2d half).  First drop for Coors in 5 yrs.  Miller Lite and Coors Light each off 7%.   Pabst turned corner in 2d half 2001; up 8% and down only 4% for yr.  Share at 3.7.  Gambrinus had strong 2001with Modelo brands: up 49,000 bbls, 15%.

Coors stock jumped more than 5% last 2 days after Caroline Levy at UBS Warburg boosted rating from “reduce” to “buy.”   What was rationale for her radical rating revision?  Well, an estimated $1.00 per share ($55 mil) in cost savings for starters.  Expects major savings on $180 mil Coors spends on transporation costs, $280 mil on labor and $700 mil on purchasing.  Coors “strives to reduce its people intensity in all areas of operations,” Caroline wrote.  Also expects sale of non-core US and UK assets, including “real-estate, water rights and even its Colorado Rockies stake,” in US, plus “restructuring” savings in UK, including weaning brands and perhaps a brewery.   On top of it, “while the consensus view on RKY’s Carling acquisition is negative,” wrote Caroline, "we believe it will be accretive to margins and earnings and carries less risk than currently perceived.”  Finally, Caroline expects Coors to grow 2% in US too.

Jan domestic taxpaid shipments up ? mil bbls, 3.7% estimated Matt Hein of Beer Inst. 2d strong mo in a row, tho taxpaids down 400,000 bbls for all of 2001. Retail sales look good too: beer up nearly 3% in supers thru Jan 27, according to IRI.

Giant distrib Manhattan Beer had 500 folks or so at its annual sales conference, where it announced 2002 goal of nearly 10% growth again to 28 mil cases.  Manhattan Beer sells Coors, Modelo, Labatt USA, Sam Adams, Beck’s and  lots more in much or all of  NY metro, depending on brand.  As recently as 1997, Manhattan Beer was less than 8 mil cases.  Then in 98, acquired  Coors Dist Co of NY to form new 18-mil case entity with ceo Simon Bergson in 50/50 partnership with Honickman family.  Had tuff transition that yr, but if it hits target again in '02, Manhattan Beer will have grown 10 mil cases in 4 yrs.  Sold 10 mil cases of Modelo brands last yr and even more of Coors, which was up 3%.