Smirnoff Ice grabbed 1.8 share of $$ in supers for 4 weeks thru Jul 8 while AB lost 1.1 share of $$$, Miller share down 0.8 and Coors down 0.2, according to IRI. Seems this brand is takin’ it directly out of big brewer hides, at least in this channel. Meanwhile Mike’s Hard Lemonade grabbed 1.1 share of $$, up 0.5 and nearly doubled sales for 4 weeks. So those 2 new brands nearly 3 share nationally over key holiday period. Corona and Heineken continued strong growth too. Corona at 5.2 share of $$ for 4 weeks while Corona Light at 1.1 and entered top 20 brands in $$ sales. Heineken at 2.5 share of $$, up 0.1. Those 3 brands at 8.8 share of $$, up 0.4. Throw in Smirnoff and Mike’s and 5 brands grabbed near 12 share of $$. Wow!!! While Bud Light $$$ and volume sales up solid, it gained only 0.4 share of $$ for 4 weeks, Bud lost 0.7. Miller Lite lost 0.3 share of $$, Coors Light held. Those 4 brands at 42 share of $$ in supers.

Tho Coors eked out shipments gain in 2d qtr, STR’s were down 1.1% and "soft across the US, and particularly in Texas and Southern California," said chairman Peter Coors. Rev per bbl up 2.9% to $107.83. But operating income per bbl, before special charges, dipped nearly 11% to $11.40 in 2d qtr. Down 9% for 6 mos. Compare that to last 4 yrs when Coors boosted oper inc/bbl by 8.3%, 14.6%, 3.1% and 29% respectively. Margins eroded as sales soft and Coors spent heavily on capacity and info systems, prexy Leo Keily said. "We do not anticipate near-term relief unless positive volume momentum returns and we reduce costs." Makin’ it tuffer: shipments in 3d qtr will be "well below" last yr, prexy Leo told Wall St, because Coors had restocked inventories last yr (over 300,000 bbls) and grew a whopping 8%. In 1st half, Coors Light flat, Killian’s down "mid-single digits," Zima "whacked" and off double-digits, Coors down "modestly," while Keystone up modestly. Marketing and sales efforts, while "good," have "not been sufficient to drive growth we need," said prexy Leo. "We’ve got some work to do." But Leo also noted that its distrib network has "lion’s share" of new products like Smirnoff Ice and Mike’s and that these are "distractions." Coors/Miller distribs still outperform overall, particularly on Coors Light. "Further down food chain" shared houses don’t do so well on brands like Zima and Keystone where there are most competing brands.

Loveland Dist, about 3.5 mil cases of mostly Miller, has acquired 1.2 mil cases of mostly Coors and Corona from Natl Dist of Va. National Dist still sells over $1 bil in spirits in several states. Loveland will have 60 share of mkt in Richmond, according to Richmond Times Dispatch, up from 42.

That didn’t take long. Hot 12-pack prices for malternatives in ads for Kappy’s, 1 of key Massachusetts retailers (in Mass, a retailer can only own 3 licenses).  Check it out: Smirnoff Ice and Mike’s each featured 12-packs at $10.99.  Bacardi Silver and SKYY Blue at $11.99.  Meanwhile, Corona and Corona Light at $9.99.  All-Others at 27 share in Mass, so it’s a key hi-end battleground. 

So sez consultant Joe Thompson, of Independent Bev Group.  For 30 “vertically integrated” (in same mkt) transactions from 1/98 to 4/01, “Blue Sky” was 2.05x gross profit or $5.84 per case.  (Not including trucks, buildings, inventory, etc.)  But for 14 transactions done from 5/01-2/02  Blue Sky fell to 1.81x gross profits or $5.79 per case.  Joe thinks drop in price because of “geography and brand mix of our transactions, not that prices are actually declining.”  Pointed to several key causes of “stabilization”:  “escalating supplier requirements, the cost of competing, a slower industry and weak overall economy.” 

 

Several top intl alc bev execs at Credit Suisse Global Bevs conference this week gave insights and views about malternatives.  Diageo strategy director said he saw “no reason” RTD/malternatives can’t reach 10-15 share of beer biz in US or Great Britain, if “well marketed.”  In Australia, these products almost all spirits-based, already have 5 share and slated to grow to 11 share by 2005, according to Lion Nathan (#2 Aussie brewer) exec.  He didn’t know if they’d be around long-term, but good profit opportunity for now; it’s like “robbing the gas station on the way to the bank.”  More seriously, pointed out lotsa kids grow up there drinking soft drinks, switch to “Jim Beam and Cola,” then to Jim Beam, and may “never drink a beer.”  That, he understated, is a “threat to the industry.”  Heineken has malternative called “Desperado” in Europe, but no plans to sell it here, yet.  Absolut’s CEO said he’s watching US malternative mkt “intensely.”

PM “engaged in extensive talks with South African Breweries,” wrote Wall St. Jnl yesterday in article on PM mgt shakeup.  “The two sides have yet to nail down the financial terms of such a deal, according to people familiar with the matter,” it added.  “Finding a buyer or merger partner for Miller” is “likely” to be 1^st order of biz for new ceo “on mergers-and-acquisitions front,” wrote  Jnl.  Earlier this week at Credit Suisse Global Bevs conference, SAB ceo Graham Mackay said tho everyone takes as given “down from the clouds” that  Miller will be sold, “ I don’t see why it has to be sold.”

Radical departure in Coors Light ads greeted with wild enthusiasm by distribs at natl sales convention, including prolonged standing O for very 1^st ad.   Coors pushed hard on its goal to get back to 5% growth.  Yep, 5%.  Execs called “disappointing” 2001 a “wakeup call.”  Lotsa other new changes in Coors Original (new name, more “synergy” with Coors Light, new campaign), Zima, etc.  More in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS.  Here’s brief roundup of consensus distrib reactions to each of brewers’ sales conferences:  AB had typically excellent pool of ads almost from top to bottom (1 of its deepest, several said); Miller had much improved Miller Lite ads, strong High Life and Coors had this breakthru in Coors Light creative.

Kirby Lawlis, formerly Miller distrib in Milwaukee, passed away at 73 after a 5-yr bout with cancer.  Kirby had chaired NBWA in 92 and was key guy in its evolution.  Kirby “was instrumental for putting in place the foundation of NBWA’s… reputation in Washington,” said NBWA prexy David Rehr.  “He pushed for focus and getting on the offense.  He was a selfless leader and beer patriot,” added David.  “He was a giant but low-key,” said Paul Roller, who worked for Kirby for many yrs, then ultimately bought Miller Brands from him. While Kirby could be demanding, “he was a completely honest guy, who more than lived up to his promises,” Paul added.

With solid 3% gain in 6th largest state, AB?s share there climbed 0.8 to 55.5. Miller down 33,000 bbls, 1.6%, lost 0.7 share. But up 1% last 6 mos. Coors continued recent string of solid growth: shipments up 43,000 bbls, 8%. But share still under 7. 2d tier brewers got clocked again: Pabst dropped 66,000 bbls, 14%, Genny down 28,000 bbls, 18%. Meanwhile, All Others jumped 70,000 bbls, 11% including 53,000-bbl, 108% Guinness gain. State shipments up 121,000 bbls, 1%. Data from Bev Mktg Corp.