That?s Heineken?s estimate, from same bev conference (see above). 2001 trends/volume: North America +1%/264.1 mil bbls; South America +3%/145.7 mil bbls; Europe: +2%/401.3 mil bbls; Africa +2%/55.4 mil bbls; Asia +4%/341.7 mil bbls. Premium (higher-priced) segment up 4% in 2001, sez Heineken.

So said CEO Hugo Powell at Credit Suisse/First Boston bev confab last week.  Up 15.9% in German mkt last 12 mos, with 5-6% price increase, another price increase coming.  Original model was 1% price increase, slower growth.  Part of $1.4 bil purchase price for Beck’s was $300 mil for “worldwide brand rights,” said Hugo, and he stressed “we could never build worldwide brand” for that little.  Integration of Beck’s in US “should be complete by the end of May,” he added. 

Miller/SAB talks in “advanced stage” and SAB and PM “hope to finalize terms in the next few weeks,” wrote Wall St Jnl this morning. But deal “complex and could well fall apart,” it added, covering its bases.  PM “wants roughly $2 billion of the $5 billion sale price to be in cash” and would still own 1/4 of combined entity.  (A couple of  European analysts had recently issued reports valuing Miller at $6 bil.)  Two other interesting points in article: incoming ceo Louis Camilleri “deeply involved in the Miller discussions” and SAB “believes that the worst is over at Miller.”  Ironically, about time Louis first made his memorable “explore any options” quote in late Jan, it was the Jnl which said discussions were “dormant” (they weren’t) and “not imminent.”  Last week that changed to “extensive” and now “advanced.” 

Top 11 suppliers spent over $950 mil on media in 2001, ac-cording to CMR report just out. That was up $66 mil, 7% vs 2000, up $178 mil, 23% vs 99. And will undoubt-edly be up again in 2002. AB spent about $25 mil less in 2001 than 2000 (2000 was Olympics yr), Coors spent just $2 mil more, Modelo importers and LUSA spent about the same. Three suppliers jacked up spending big-time: Miller hike was $48 mil, 25%; Heineken up $12 mil, 22%; Guinness-Bass up whopping $39 mil. That was nearly 5X 2000 spending. Spent $39 mil media on Smirnoff Ice alone. Lotsa details in next BMI.

Fed Court in NC just ruled, like Fed Court in VA, that state ban of direct wine shipments can't stand.

Called for boycott because Guinness hired non-union contractor to run PA brewery where it bottles Smirnoff Ice.  Turns out this former Pabst brewery ain’t really used as a brewery these days. “There is no brewing at all," spokesman for mgmt co hired by Guinness told Philadelphia paper.  "We get the raw ingredients, mix them and bottle them.  We don’t even use the brewing side of the facility.”

“We will never be an effective counter to our critics…if we continue to react separately, and sometimes competitively, as beer, wine or spirits.” So said Wine and Spirits Wholesalers Assn exec veep/CEO Juanita Duggan in most recent call for industry unity at WSWA convention last week.  Given bad blood between brewers/distillers over NBC ad flap and distillers' equivalence push, tuff to believe we’ll see lotsa hand-holding anytime soon.  But who knows?  On retail level, one recent step in direction of unity: long-discussed merger of Natl Licensed Bev Assn (mostly on-premise) with Natl Assn of Bev Retailers (mostly liquor stores) finally came to pass with creation of American Bev Licensees.   Now ABL is lookin’ for a leader, but has already hired aggressive Rick Berman & Co, who represents on-premise chains, to lobby.

Richard Turner, North American prexy of Allied Domecq--Miller’s malternative partner with Sauza Diablo and Stoli Citrona--made revealing comment in talk to wine & spirits distribs assn meeting (WSWA).  Allied “really excited” about these new brands, natch, but “most importantly though, experience shows that more consumers will identify with our core Stolichnaya vodka and Sauza tequila brands, and we expect volumes of these core brands to go up as a result.”   Two other comments from Richard show liquor folks thinkin’ more like beer folks.  Allied’s mktg objectives: “Create great drinking experiences…. It’s about drinking, not just about the drink.”   Also: Allied “attacking on-premise like never before…with an account segmentation model…detailed profile of each segment…specific guidelines for each brand and each segment… and quantitative scorecard.”

Cagey quotes continue from SAB which acknowledged “preliminary” talks with Miller, but added: “As part of its strategic development, SAB is in discussions with a number of third parties regarding the ongoing consolidation of the beer industry.”  PM also acknowledged  talks.  Majority of pundits seemed to view a Miller/SAB deal favorably, but one memorable dissenter: columnist Lex in Financial Times:  SAB “needs a deal.  Miller needs a deal.  But that does not mean they need each other…. The combination would be dull, defensive and low growth.”  Stay tuned. 

Import biz has become highly concentrated. Corona Extra sold 6.2 mil bbls in 2001, 2 mil bbls ahead of Heineken at 4.1 mil bbls. (Corona passed Heineken in 97.) Those 2 brands were 48% of imports in 2001. Interbrew has import brands ranked #3-5; Labatt Blue, Tecate and Beck?s. Those 3 brands sold almost 3 mil bbls in 2001 as Labatt Blue led way with 1.16 mil bbls. Top 10 imports at 75-share of segment. Four top 10 brands up double-digits: Corona up 16%, Labatt Blue up 11%, Amstel Light up 20%, Modelo Especial up 24%. Modelo Especial entered top 10 at nearly 500,000 bbls. But most major import brands slowed. In fact, 5 of top 10 brands up low-to-mid single digits: Heineken up 4%, Tecate up 5%, Beck?s up 1%, Foster?s up 5%, Bass up 1%. Only 1 of top 10 imports down: Guinness off 5%.