1) Fed ct judge in Tex just ruled that “reachback” pricing by brewers—raising a distrib’s FOB after wholesaler charged higher-than-recommended PTR—perfectly legit. 2) Two guys who sold their AB distrib last yr at $15/case+ sued AB coz it rejected earlier, higher bid.  Details in BMI. 

Just got big whackin’ 280-page shareholder circular put out by SAB on upcoming deal, which gave “official” Miller brand #s, among many other goodies:  Miller Lite US volume 15.688 mil bbls, High Life franchise at 5.628 mil bbls, Gen Draft franchise at 5.5 mil bbls, and Foster’s at 685,000 bbls.  Those 4 brand groups are core brands of 27.519 mil bbls.  Miller contract-brewed 8.3 mil bbls in 2001 and got $548 mil in revs from this biz.  After analyzing mammoth document, Credit Suisse First Boston’s Ian Shackleton issued report stating that Miller EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) can grow 6% per yr.  Assumed Miller will get 1% a yr volume growth, 2% pricing, 1% from mix improvement and 2% from “operational gearing” (cost-cuts?) to get to 6% EBIT.  More details on circular in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS.

MADD didn?t get much coverage of its Jun 18 press conference seeking to "jumpstart the stalled war on drunk driving," but big media is still on the story. NBC Dateline recently featured story about emotional and financial toll of drunk driving. Concluded with suggestions for policy considerations: more education, tougher law enforcement, even-lower legal BAC limits. Philadelphia Inquirer ran 4-day, very lengthy feature on drunk driving in Philly/South Jersey with lots and lots of stats and editorial support for more enforcement and sobriety checkpoints. Paper also endorsed control theory that higher number of sales outlets means more crashes. Final installment fingered industry lobbyists (mostly retail assns) for fighting .08 BAC law (neither NJ nor PA has it yet), keg registration, other measures to fight drunk driving.

Bid to levy 5% retail tax on all alc bevs to fund alcohol/drug treatment failed in Mass Senate, DISCUS reported. Credited coalition of "each tier and each sector" that lobbied together.

That?s what some have suggested recently, citing everything from improved summertime cash flow, the malternative pop, an absence of sellers and a surfeit of buyers, and supplier dissatisfaction with the way some recent deals turned out. But it could be more global than that. "The dog days of the deal market are likely to drag on well past summer," wrote the Wall Street Journal about corporate acquisitions generally. Called this "one of the worst slumps in history for corporate mergers," which have fallen to lowest level in a decade. Cited weak share prices, corporate scandals and a "string of broken mergers from the 1990s." (Someone forgot to tell Coors/Carling, SABMiller about this trend.)

Barton Beers revs up $25 mil, 14% to $198 mil in qtr ended May 31st, parent co Constellation reported. But "depletions on our Mexican imports were down slightly as retailers worked off inventories and the new price got absorbed into the market," CFO Tom Summer told analysts. "The volume gains on beer?were the result of distributors replenishing inventories due to the healthy depletions and heavy retail promoting prior to the price increase," he added. Conservative Constellation expressed "caution on our outlook for near-term beer shipments," and 2d-qtr "shipments could be down." For rest of year "we expect beer net sales increases to be in the low single-digits." Hmm. Back in Jan, chairman Richard Sands warned of flat yr, but in qtr thru Feb, Barton up 37% and in qtr thru May up 14%. Means for 5 mos, beer revs gotta be up near 20%. Not bad.

Supermkt beer biz even stronger than c-store sales. Dollar sales up 7.7% YTD thru Jun 9, according to IRI. Pricing pretty healthy too: avg price per case-equivalent up 44 cents, 2.8% to $16.14. Most premium brands up less than that, so consumers still tradin? up to imports, malternatives. AB was only dollar-share gainer (+0.3) of top domestic brewers. Modelo brands up 0.2 share, Guinness up 0.8, Mike?s eked out 0.1 gain. Miller lost half-share, Pabst 0.3, Coors 0.2, Labatt 0.1. Supermkt $$ sales up same 7.7% for 4 weeks thru Jun 9. No signs of widespread Memorial Day discounting either.

Volume in c-stores up 2.8% for 24 weeks thru Jun 8, according to ACNielsen. Dollar sales up 6.1%. So avg price up about 50 cents per case-equivalent, 3.2% to $16.62. Light beer volume up 5.6% YTD, but regular beer (including imports) down nearly 2%. Malternatives rockin?: volume jumped 85%, $$ sales nearly doubled. Still just 2 share of volume, but grabbed 3.4 share of $$ YTD. Avg price per case of malternatives in c-stores: just below $29, compared to $16.40 for beer.

Interesting study from Australia showed that women?s risk of injury "significantly elevated for any consumption of alcohol," even as low as a couple of drinks over a 6-hr period. But risk for men "elevated only when consumption exceeded 7 drinks" in 6 hrs.

SAB stock price dipped from $8.38 to $7.95 since Miller deal announced. Had been as low as $6.00 on Jan 30. Coors share price up 14% thru Jul 1. AB share price up 10%. PM stock price off 4%. Modelo and Diageo share prices up about 10% YTD, FEMSA 7%. Microbrewer stocks flat or down.