Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Constellation (STZ) beer sales continue to accelerate in tracked off-prem channels most of all amid "weakness" in the independent channel, STZ cfo Garth Hankinson shared at Barclays Global Consumer Staples conference in chat with Lauren Lieberman. For latest 12 wks thru most of Aug, STZ volume grew 13% in Circana multi-outlet + convenience channels, he noted. The "delta" between Circana trend and STZ depletions "typically" is in "low-single-digit" range historically, but "that's increased in recent periods" to "more in the mid-singles." Suggests depletions up 7-9% in fiscal Q2 Jun-Aug. Still a notable acceleration vs +5.5% in fiscal Q1 Mar-May. But some of co's top mkts are posting lower growth rates, and #1 state CA is soft this yr, INSIGHTS understands.

Total AB trends improved a bit over the summer but were still historically bad. AB volume down 13-14% for 6 weeks thru Aug 27 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data, compared to 16-17% in Jun. AB now down 10% yr-to-date in Circana MULC. That's a loss of 43.6 mil cases thru Aug 13, including 37.9 mil cases for 12 weeks in these channels that represented 60% of AB volume last yr, INSIGHTS estimates. Meanwhile, Bud Light trend remained stubbornly down 28% for 4 and 12 weeks in this data set. (Down even steeper 30% in NielsenIQ.)

Beer biz staying soft this summer. Shipments shed another 867K bbls, 5% in Jul, INSIGHTS estimates based on Beer Inst Economic Report data/ests, dragging industry volume down 5.5%, -6.7 mil bbls YTD. Jul marks 2d mo in a row where beer CPI increase didn't outpace shipments drop as CPI slowed to +4.3% in Jul and +5.4% in Jun. Domestic taxpaids continue to drive declines. Sank 8%, 1.16 mil bbls to 12.8 mil bbls in Jul, BI estimates. Suggests domestic brewers' Jul volume, in what's supposed to be peak season, was at Apr levels. Taxpaids now down nearly 7%, 6.5 mil bbls YTD thru Jul.

This is a summer like no other ever in beer biz. The 2 biggest developments this summer are related: the extreme softness of the industry, which is tracking -5.5% yr-to-date (see below) and the even greater softness of AB, which is down double digits in peak selling season. That includes near 30% drops for its largest brand, Bud Light. Constellation, Molson Coors, Yuengling and others are up strong in scan data, but not every case that's leaving AB is going to beer competitors. Some of that lost volume is leaving the beer industry entirely. While we can't quantify how much, and there are certainly multiple other reasons for industry softness, total business declines have become a creeping problem for everyone in the biz. That softness and uncertainty about future make this a profoundly unsettling time, particularly for AB and its distrib network.

Dutch Bros, the fast-expanding Oregon roaster that's sweeping eastward, filed a shelf registration with SEC for $300 mil of Class A common shares. It also expects to grant its underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to $45 mil more in Class A shares . . . Food/bev player TreeHouse Foods trimmed more food activities out of the mix with sale of snack bar biz and associated plant in Lakeville, Minn, to John B Sanfilippo & Son for $63 mil in cash. It's another step in push "to be a focused private-label leader in high-growth and high-margin categories," per ceo Steve Oakland.

Curaleaf has taken its THC-infused bev enhancers in direction more suited to alc-alternative occasions with new line called Zero Proof Squeeze. The line builds on platform established in Mar 2021 by launch of Select Squeeze but adopts natural sweetener "to provide a significantly lighter taste and balanced flavor profile for enhanced mixability," per announcement. Like core line it offers 2.5 mg of THC per dose "for discreet enjoyment on the go," promising that its nanotech reduces onset time to as little as 15 minutes. It's breaking in Curaleaf's Illinois locations in Dash of Cherry, Dash of Orange, Dash of Lime and Dash of Sweet, with more on the way. Select Squeeze goes out in 0.68-oz dispensers containing 100 mg of THC, nominally 40 servings.

LA-based cannabiz Blaze Life Holdings has recruited the nearly 20-year Anheuser-Busch vet Shreyas Balakrishnan as ceo, putting him back on same team as Blaze cofounder Paul Burgis, a Golden Road Brewing coo/cfo who segued to A-B after that craft brewer's acquisition. At A-B, Balakrishnan took roles spanning brewing and distillery operations, distribution, sales and M&A, serving as prexy of Cutwater Spirits since that co's acquisition by A-B in 2019. He'd earlier served as Elysian Brewing prexy/gm and also overseen co's branch distribution ops in NY and LA. "Having managed A-B distribution operations in the two largest US metropolitan markets, New York City and Los Angeles, his expertise in navigating the route to market in complex environments is the sophistication we need as we enter our next growth phase," as Burgis put it. His recruitment comes as BLH works to structure its route-to-market more along lines of 3-tier alc system than fragmented cannabis systems, ahead of startup of Delta Bev plant in Canoga Park section of LA that's claimed to be world's largest cannabev copacker, "with 14 times the capacity of the current California market." BLH's distribution arm, SuLo Distro, will be sited there too. Cultivation/brand arm goes by Illa Canna moniker. Burgis' cofounder at Blaze is real estate investor Scott Kim . . . Under its recently promoted ceo Geoff Tanner, Quest and Atkins marketer The Simply Good Foods Co has shaken up its leadership team to improve its growth consistency and to rev up innovation. Among changes at Denver-based co, Stuart Heflin, former P&G exec who came to Simply via its acquisition of Quest in 2019, adds gm title to his svp role on Quest. He's counterbalanced by arrival of Ryan Thomas as svp/gm for Atkins marketing. Thomas is longtime JM Smucker exec who arrives at Simply 5 mos after Post Holdings picked up Pet Food biz he ran as chief commercial officer. His mandate is "to take full accountability for the Atkins brand performance and for reshaping the strategy and growth trajectory of the brand." It's not clear who's held that responsibility until now. Finally, Simply has elevated Linda Zink from cmo to chief growth officer. All 3 will sit on exec leadership team and report directly to Tanner . . . Canmaking giant Ball Corp said evp/cfo Scott Morrison, 61, has elected to retire after 23 years there, succeeded in those roles by Howard Yu, 51, effective Sep 25. Yu had spent 22 years at Danaher and then its Envista spinoff, where he served as svp/cfo. Morrison will continue to advise Ball during Yu's transition and thru completion of sale of Aerospace biz.

Gatorade is moving forward with first unflavored water entry under that brand name even as Muscle Milk offers its first plant-based protein shakes, Beverage Digest reported today. Those brands had earlier relied on Propel and Evolve brand names, respectively, for water and plant lines. Gatorade first: its new Gatorade Water is electrolyte-infused entry that puts co into alkaline water segment for first time, with pH of at least 7.5 and 65-90 mg of sodium for electrolytes depending on pack size (sport-capped 700-ml or flat-capped 1-liter). It will hit shelves early next year, Bev Digest reported. Launch, of course, echoes move years earlier of Body Armor into water segment, acceding to athletes' demands for hydration item they could consume more frequently. Meanwhile, newsletter reported, Muscle Milk Plant Protein will hit grocers late this year and ecomm in early Jan in 14-oz PET bottles with 30 g of pea-derived protein (at $4.99) and 11-oz Tetra Pak with 25 g (at $10.99 per 4-pk). They'll initially go out in Chocolate and Caramel Vanilla flavors. It's presumed both new lines will be among innovation to be sampled at NACS c-store show in a few weeks . . . Following in path of Prime Hydration, Body Armor and others, UK supplement player Applied Nutrition is extending its Body Fuel hydration brand into energy, offering 330-ml (11.2-oz) canned line with moderate dose of 100 mg of caffeine along with B vitamins, mineral salts, 100 mg of taurine and 100 mg of VitaCholine choline bitartrate. "Designed to be better than a generic energy drink," as website assures. Zero-sugar line is launching in Blue Raspberry, Orange and Lemonade flavors, designated with poster-color can backgrounds that don't depart very far from Prime aesthetic. (Name overlaps a bit with Monster Bev's Reign Total Body Fuel and Bang's Brain & Body Fuel, too.) The Blue Raspberry and Orange entries also are being offered in 60-ml shots with more intense formula that includes 200 mg caffeine and 200 mg of taurine. Note that Applied Nutrition already has participated in canned energy segment via its BCAA Amino-Hydrate Energy, also in 330-ml can.

Multiplatform enterprise established by Joey Nickell out of Louisville base is about to enter another category with launch of Hero sports drink, augmenting acquired Phocus energy brand and now-launching Levo energy shot brand. Packed in wrapped 16-oz plastic bottles with prominent "H" at center of front panel, new line offers modest sugar hit of 5 g (25 calories) in range of 6 flavors with names like Apex, Nova and Nexus and promise of clean ingredient panel. Sweetener is cane sugar with a bit of stevia to avoid reliance on sucralose. Crucially, to cut thru in cluttered category distracted by Prime Hydration antics, Hero is leveraging newly won ability of college athletes to participate in paid marketing efforts by partnering with 98Strong group, harnessing efforts of 40+ NCAA Division 1 athletes to build awareness via social media posts and in-person sampling events in locker rooms and elsewhere on campus, Joey told us. (Among other bev brands to harness this new platform have been Olipop, Orgain, C4 Energy and G Fuel Energy, per its website.) Nickell said several retailers already have committed to launch, with new line to be sampled at upcoming fall events like Natural Products Expo East, Kroger Wellness and NACS c-store expo. He'd recently hinted at pending portfolio expansion (BBI, Jul 7).

This week in 1988, INSIGHTS reported that after an 8-month investigation, the BATF ruled Miller's use of "no additives" phrase on its labels is "neither false nor misleading," as AB complained. AB said Lite contains "tetrahydroisohumulones" (THM), which it contended is an additive, "a man-made, molecularly altered 'bittering agent' that does not exist in nature." BATF dir wrote that agency has "consistently recognized derivatives of hops" are not additives, while adding, BATF "believes that it is not likely that the ordinary consumer would conclude that a beer containing extracted hops contains an additive."