Beer Marketer's Insights
In under 3 yrs, Tilray will go from scratch to ~12 mil cases and near $300 mil in revs across beer, spirits and very small amount of non-alc energy bevs. And it paid relatively little to do so. Big deal with AB (see last issue) is gonna cost Tilray just $85 mil in cash, "subject to working capital and other adjustments," per 8K filing. That's just ~$150 per bbl for the ~8 mil cases acquired. A steep discount vs peak craft valuations that typically reached $1000+ per bbl in craft segment's growth heyday. Suggests that Tilray collectively will pay $530-545 mil between this acquisition and deals for SweetWater ($300 mil), Montauk ($38 mil plus potential for $15 mil more if co hits targets), Green Flash/Alpine ($5 mil), and Breckenridge Distillery ($103 mil), totaling ~12 mil cases (~870K bbls) of beer and spirits. Deal expected to close in 60-90 days, CEO Irwin Simon confirmed on conference call yesterday and in separate chat with CBN.
Two Roots Brewing Ceased Operations
Even as one hybrid cannabis/bev company - Tilray - ascended to new heights, another one fizzled out. Days before Tilray announced deal to pick up slew of Anheuser-Busch craft beer brands (BBI, Aug 7), Two Roots Brewing announced it would cease operations late last week. Indeed, Two Roots, which started as a THC-infused non-alc beer subsidiary of Cannabiniers and Lighthouse Strategies, had big eyes for beer acquisitions well before Tilray was even in the game. At one point, co claimed it had an LOI to form a JV with a top-10 craft brewer, planning to acquire 500K bbls/yr of brewing capacity. Two Roots bought smaller microbreweries including Helm in Calif, Dad & Dudes Breweria in Colo and Rochester Mills in Mich, but came nowhere near that mark. Meanwhile, its THC-infused non-alc beers fell by the wayside, prompting co to pivot to non-alc beer sales. Two Roots was a pioneer in THC bevs that took a chance on the category as it was just getting going, as our sibling letter Craft Brew News noted. Yet THC bevs remains small shakes in the broader legal cannabiz landscape, which continues to struggle in established mkts.
UK-based meal replacement brand Huel has entered functional space with extension called Huel Daily A-Z Vitamins. Canned line, initially offered in home market, contains 15 vitamins at 100% recommended value, 3.5 g of fiber and 925 mg of electrolytes, in caffeinated version (100 mg) and caffeine-free version. Flavor profile carries hints of cherry and raspberry. Sweetened with real juices augmented by erythritol and sucralose, entry comes in at 30 calories per 12-oz can. Co claims it was years in development, augmenting lineup focused on protein. Slim-can format is pkg departure from tall PET bottles employed for the core RTDs.
Less than a year after concluding "90-day expansion" that quintupled capacity, CMC Beverage Solutions has abruptly closed its doors in Athens, Ga. Reached by phone today, Drew Brantley, Frisch Capital Partners principal who owned CMC, attributed closure to "life decisions" and said its equipment had been sold to Wildpack Beverage for its Baltimore unit. CMC had sought to carve out a role serving emerging brands with relatively small runs of cans in 12-oz sleek, 12-oz conventional and 16-oz formats at aggressive pricing.
Average price increases still rose double-digits in several bev categories but continued to come down slightly in several other segments, per NielsenIQ data for 4 wks thru Jul 29, as reported by Goldman Sachs. PepsiCo isn't easing up much, tho, as it still has double-digit price gains in CSDs, bottled water, sports drinks and RTD teas. In the hot energy segment, newcomers continued to surge but not at cost of top players Monster and Red Bull not posting solid sales growth too.
Closing Supply Gap, BellRing Motors to 20% Topline Gain to $446M; Ready to Restart Marketing Engine
BellRing enjoyed accelerating sales of its Premier Protein shakes as supply finally began to catch up to demand even as its Dymatize specialty brand showed signs of resonating more broadly. Net sales rose 20.3% to $445.9 mil. Unusually in bev sector these days, the topline gain was driven by both price/mix, +11%, and volume, +9.3%. Premier Protein enjoyed 19.9% sales gain, with its RTD shakes up 19.1%, as new copacking capacity came on and co was able to bring back a trio of flavors it had "paused" during supply crunch. The gains occurred, ceo Darcy Davenport noted pointedly, without much in the way of marketing as co focused first on fixing out-of-stocks. So "the momentum in the business is palpable as we restart the demand drivers on shakes," she told investors this morning. BellRing's Dymatize brand soared 32.3%, driven by 46.4% volume gain, partly offset by 14.1% decrease in price/mix due to higher promos and mix shifts. Of sales total, RTDs comprised $349.3 mil, powders $81.9 mil, other formats $14.7 mil, per 10-Q filing. Gross margin narrowed to 30.5% from 32.4% a year earlier due to higher inputs and promo activity. Operating profit rose 12.6% to $76 mil.
Zevia PBC this morning offered roadmap for rebuilding its ops after meltdown that interrupted its brisk growth trajectory, saying it's recruited key Monster Beverage supply chain exec to complete revamp that should have brand back on track by year-end. Brand's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, prexy/ceo Amy Taylor assured investors, and early signs are that major rebranding is succeeding in drawing new consumers to stevia-sweetened natural bevs. The new recruit, Bill Williamson, is 10-year Pabst vet who comes from role of svp for ops & supply chain at Monster over past coupla years to take similar role at Zevia. Of course, Taylor would have developed appreciation for MNST's operational strengths after having spent most of her career competing against it at Red Bull.
An all-star lineup of speakers will take the stage at the 2023 Beer Insights Seminar, Nov 12-13 at Convene in NYC. You'll hear from Constellation Brands ceo Bill Newlands, talking about co's continued growth and prospects. In this unprecedented year of change, we'll bring you a top-notch panel of Wall St analysts, including Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs, Carlos Laboy of HSBC and Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.
Bud Light Mess Makes "Near-Term Noise," But ABI on "Right Track," Evercore ISI Sez; Shelf Space
Count close ABI-watcher Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI among analysts with bright outlook for ABI's global biz, despite its difficulties in the US. "The Bud Light controversy is creating near-term noise," Robert wrote in pair of reports on co's BUD stock late last wk. But it's "on the right track," he determines, given "momentum" and competitive shifts outside US, "de-risked" balance sheet, potential for global b2b/DTC biz to reach "profitability inflection" and other net-positives. Even so, ABI execs "reiterated confidence in the US market long-term" during virtual roundtable last wk. As co clears the "controversy" and "commodity pressures ease," margins here should improve.
Walmart Topped 1/4 of Grocery $$ in Yr Ended June 30, Numerator Reports; Kroger Shedding Share
Quick table of top-5 grocery players highlights dynamic emphasized by Kroger-Albertsons in bid by those cos to gain regulatory approval for proposed merger. Walmart hit 25.2 share of US grocery retail $$ for yr ended June 30, Numerator reports. The retail leader gained 1.5 share of grocery revs in last 2 yrs. Over same period, #2 player Kroger got more distant, shedding 1.4 share to 10.7. It's less than 1 pt ahead of Costco, which picked up 0.5 share in last 2 yrs to 9.9, Numerator estimates. Albertsons also gained a half-pt, reaching 7.2 share Jul-Jun. Rounding out top-5 is other big box player Sam's Club, up 0.4 pts to 5.1 in 2 yrs. In all, top-5 went from about 56.6 share for 1 yr thru June 30, 2021 to 58.1 share 2 yrs later. A combined Kroger-Albertsons would hold less than 18 share of grocery biz, as Numerator looks at it, down from closer to 19 share 2 yrs ago. Recall, offering stronger competition to Walmart and share-gaining big box stores is one of key rationales presented by execs from both cos defending proposed deal to merge.

