Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Each yr for the last decade, the 2 largest US brewers reliably shed around 2 share of off-premise beer $$ combined. That changed in 2022, when AB lost 0.9 share and Molson Coors held share of $$ in Circana (IRI) multi-outlet + c-store data. So far in 2023, their combined share shift is again closer to 2 pts, but is obviously even more one-sided. AB lost just over 3 share of category sales to 33.4, while MC picked up 1.21 to 18.3 yr-to-date thru Jul 16 in Circana MULC scans. MC still a half-pt ahead of Constellation, up 13.7% and 1.68 share YTD after recent acceleration. Yuengling remains another big beneficiary of AB's share losses, compounding co's westward expansion. It grew sales 21.8% thru mid-Jul, +0.17 share of $$, passing the 1-share mark. Kirin-Lion's craft biz kept on rollin', +19% and up similar 0.18 share. With launch of Beast Unleashed FMBs easily offsetting its CANarchy portfolio craft & seltzer declines, Monster jumped into top-15 beer suppliers in 1st half of yr, +0.15 share of $$ on a near 70% gain. Most other top suppliers not moving needle much, except Boston Beer, -0.22 share to 5.2.

Molson Coors posted its best net rev gain (+12%) in any qtr since Molson and Coors merged in 2005 and best US depletions gain (+8.7%) since MillerCoors merger in 2008, co championed in Q2 earnings report. Following record-setting qtr, MC now expects to finish year with global revs up high-single-digits and underlying income before taxes up 23-26% compared to low-single-digit guidance on both initially. Amid greater earnings, co reduced net debt to 2.5X EBITDA, reaching long-term target ahead of schedule, giving it increased "financial flexibility," cfo Tracey Joubert highlighted. MC now expects to win more shelf space than initially anticipated amid continued sales "momentum" that's lasted thru July, particularly focused on gaining ground in c-stores in 2d half, ceo Gavin Hattersley shared. Plus, it already gained 12K new tap handles of Coors Light, Miller Lite and Blue Moon, representing 10% of total US taps. And co plans to increase mktg spend by $100 mil, 15% in 2d half, aiming to capitalize on increased demand, "maintain what we've got" and "push hard" for that and "more" to "meet" this "new reality," Gavin added.

AB's staggering 15% shipments loss in 2d qtr is more than it lost in most full years of the Anheuser Busch InBev era. That's over 3-mil-bbl drop for the qtr, INSIGHTS estimates. Consider, AB lost a total of 27 mil bbls in last 14 yrs. That's a lot of loss, but still an average of less than 2 mil bbls a year. Meanwhile, July scan data down at very nearly same pace as late Apr-Jun. If trend continues throughout 2d half, AB will lose 9-10 million barrels in 2023. And yet global Anheuser Busch InBev still expects to make its guidance for 4-8% EBITDA growth.

Tampa-based Crown Holdings said it's acquired Helvetia Packaging, which will give it a bev can and end production footprint in Germany to tune of 1 bil cans of annual capacity. Deal calls for Crown to assume customer base serviced from Helvetia's Saarlouis, Germany, plant and accompanying contracts. Terms weren't disclosed but co assured investors it won't break the bank. "The impact to the company's net leverage is negligible," it said. Deal still must navigate German antitrust process but is anticipated to close by year-end.

This case started out as a rare victory for a small co back in Nov 2021 (BBI, Nov 4, 2021) when Stamford, Conn-based Rise Brewing won preliminary injunction blocking PepsiCo from using name "Mtn Dew Rise" for its new energy drink. Court agreed at time that word "Rise" could reasonably confuse consumers with Rise Coffee brand, in victory that seemed to vindicate Rise Brewing's expensive move to challenge multinational soda conglomerate. But victory was short-lived: ruling was reversed last Jul (BBI, Jul 22, 2022) and final nail in case was delivered by original judge yesterday in Federal Court in Manhattan, who dismissed case, per Reuters. Judge Lorna Schofield reversed course from 2021 and now agreed with 2d Circuit's decision that Rise "could not prove to a reasonable jury that Pepsi's product was likely to confuse consumers," per report. Citing that court, Judge Schofield ruled Rise trademark was weak given the "strong logical associations between 'Rise' and coffee," and that differences in branding are "far more notable than the similarities." Last Jul, Appeals Court noted there were many "Rise" trademarks already in coffee biz when Rise Brewing started. "If there was room for Plaintiff's use of 'Rise' in the already crowded coffee field, there would also be room for Defendant's, especially on a product that is distinct from coffee," noted Judge Pierre Leval at time. Of course, it's somewhat Pyrrhic victory for Pepsi, as energy entry rebranded as MTN Dew Energy has failed to carve out meaningful share in category.

Biggest bev can maker Ball Corp said net sales sagged by well over a half-bil $$ in Q2 -$568 mil, 13.7% to $3.57 bil. A big chunk of that was $238 mil, 13.4% decline in North and Central American bev packaging biz, which was still 43% of co's total net sales in period. And tho co's South American and European sales down more steeply, the difference between what co expected and results it got had everything to do with "mass beer" and the "marketing issue" experienced by "one customer" of outsize importance to Ball, as ceo Dan Fisher tactfully put it on this morning's earnings call. Tho not named, that's clearly Anheuser-Busch, still in throes of Bud Light meltdown following controversy over social media post by transgender influencer. Tho sales disappointed Wall Street watchers, earnings came in better than expected and shares were trading up today.

This week in 1982, INSIGHTS wrote "if you're one of those who thinks that Lite is just a light beer and not really a solid brand, take a look at Texas numbers." In this key mkt, Miller Lite took over as #1 beer in past 2 mos. Thru end of Jun, Lite was at 1.56 mil bbls, Bud at 1.52 mil, Coors at 1.10 mil. Just 2 yrs prior, Coors was at 1.44 mil bbls in Tex, Bud at 1.1 mil bbls while Lite was just 743K bbls.

Mark Anthony is ramping up mktg and commercial spending by 15% "in pursuit of our growth ambition," co announced in internal memo shared with INSIGHTS. Co made this shift in spending across multiple biz units after collecting "feedback" over the last yr "to understand where changes and investments are needed to best serve our distributors, retail partners and consumers," coo David Barnett wrote to partners. "Now is the time to raise our capabilities and expectations, drive greater growth, better activate at point of purchase, and invest in new tools and technologies," he added.

ABI posted "surprisingly strong results despite cratering Bud Light sales," wrote WSJ Heard on the Street columnist Aaron Back. "Amid the high emotion in the U.S. over the Bud Light controversy, following a social media collaboration with a transgender influencer, investors seem to have forgotten just how big and global the brand's Belgian parent company really is." Tho AB volume down 15% in US, ABI down just 1.4% globally, including a 10% gain in China. Revs rose in more than 85% of ABI mkts.

Biggest bev can producer Ball Corp reported net sales down by well over a half-bil $$ in Q2 this morn, down $568 mil, 13.7% to $3.566 bil. A big chunk of that was $238-mil, 13.4% decline in its North and Central American bev packaging biz, which was still 43% of co's total net sales in the qtr. And tho co's South American and European sales down more steeply, the difference between co's expectations and results had everything to do with "mass beer" and the "marketing issue" experienced by "one customer" that has outsized impact on Ball's biz here, as ceo Dan Fisher noted on earnings call. Tho not named, that's clearly AB.