Beer Marketer's Insights
Wholesaler orders remained in expansion territory at 54 in Jul Beer Purchasers' Index, while at-risk inventory dropped to 44 for first reading below 50 since Feb, NBWA noted in release. (Recall, below 50 signals contraction while above 50 indicates expansion.) The 54 reading is same as last month's, marking 3rd straight mo of BPI expansion. "Slightly higher ordering rates and lower inventories point to positive quarterly trends," announcement adds. Tho recall, May shipments to wholesalers dropped at steepest rate of any mo this yr; lopsidedness of declines from AB vs increases for several competing cos is seemingly skewing BPI readings vs total volume ordered.
As Boston Beer focuses on stabilizing Truly hard seltzer's steep declines while stoking fire further on Twisted Tea, there's still wide range of potential outcomes for co's results in 2d half of yr. Particularly on shipments, based on full-yr guidance of -2% to -8%. Boston shipments slipped 5.8%, 238K bbls to 3.9 mil bbls in 1st half of 2023. Low-end of guidance suggests shipments decline of 10%, ~420K bbls in 2d half while shipments would need to grow nearly 2%, over 70K bbls in 2d half to reach high-end guidance. Massive gap in potential outcomes continues to be centered around uncertainty of Truly hard seltzer.
Throwback Thursday
This week in 1986, INSIGHTS reported that Corona brand was "still surging ahead at dizzying pace unlike anything this industry has seen, at least in imports." In Calif for month of May, Corona shipped nearly ½ mil cases and was 1 of every 3 imports sold. YTD thru May, Corona passed Heineken as top import brand in Calif. Barton Beers exec veep Mike Mazzoni told INSIGHTS that thru Jun, Corona shipped 5 mil cases, after doing 5.2 mil cases for all of 1985. "We are confident we will pass Beck's this year while being available in only 26 states," Mike shared. Corona was accomplishing all this amid a glass shortage in Mexico. While many distribs in Eastern US were eager to get Corona, it was obvious that would not happen that summer, but INSIGHTS noted brand would be handled by Gambrinus Importers out of San Antonio, not Barton nationwide. Corona grew from 375K bbls in 1985 to 980K bbls in '86 and to 1.8 mil bbls in '87.
Heidelberg will soon consolidate 3 of its warehouse facilities into 1. The sprawling OH distrib decided to combine volume from its Ohio Valley Wine Co location (in Evendale) as well as its Cincinnati warehouse into Heidelberg's Dayton facility for greater efficiencies, co explained in note to supplier partners. It expects consolidation to be completed by Oct 2. Recall, Heidelberg was bought by Redwood Capital for ~$1 bil in late 2021, with 9 warehouses, over 18K brands and circa 700 suppliers at time of purchase (including AB, Constellation, Mark Anthony, Boston Beer and extensive craft & wine book). So perhaps this move was only a matter of time.
Spirit RTDs Near 2% of Boston Beer $$ in Scans; Partnership Brands 2.6% of Mix; Twisted 46% of Mix
Boston Beer spirit-based RTDs are starting to add significant $$ to its total mix that's notably improving total sales, even if Truly family remains soft amid addition of Truly Vodka Soda. While Boston Beer's beer sales dipped 2% to $1.15 bil, its spirit RTD sales collectively grew 236% to $20.3 mil YTD thru Jul 1 in Nielsen xAOC + liquor plus + convenience data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. That's 1.7 share of Boston Beer's total beer + RTD spirits sales. So Boston Beer $$ trend improved to down just 0.8% in these channels thru 1st half including spirit RTDs.
STZ Top 4-Wk Gainer in MULC, Surpassed MC; Each Up 2+ Share, AB Down 4.9; New Brands Risin'
Beer biz picked up a bit in recent weeks. Beer $$ grew 3.1% and volume down just 1.8% for latest 4 wks thru Jul 16 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data (better since Jul). Wild acceleration for Constellation since mid-Jun jumps off the page in latest report. STZ $$ grew 17% to $800 mil, snagged 2.3 share of beer $$ to 19.3 for 4 wks thru Jul 16. Sales surpassed MC for period even as MC kept up 16% growth to $781 mil, +2.05 share gain. Yuengling share gain also improved for 4 wks to +0.4 as sales jumped 47.5% to $51 mil. STZ, MC and Yuengling alone more than made up for AB's 11%, $158 mil drop and nearly all of its 4.85-pt share loss to 30.2. Yr-to-date, AB $$ slipped 5.6%, -$484 mil and volume dropped 10%, -36 mil cases in MULC channels. Ouch.
Here's a switch: Boston Beer's better profit picture led to big stock jump in after-hours trading, even though shipments volume continued to decline at similar rates to last yr. Boston beat consensus earnings per share estimates by $1.38 per share, according to Seeking Alpha. Stock up 11% at presstime in after hours trading.
There's more than one way to skin a cat. After deal for Fiji Kava to acquire kava-based Leilo brand fell thru earlier this year, potential partners have pivoted now to licensing transaction whereby Fiji Kava's parent, The Calmer Co, will license brand for China, India, Asia Pacific region and Gulf States. In TV interview, Calmer Co ceo Anthony Noble said plan is to seek "quick win" in tourist haunts in Fiji Islands and to set up apparatus to manufacture and distribute items in India and China.
Tilray Brands scored balanced growth among its cannabis, alcohol and distribution arms, with only its smaller Wellness div built around Manitoba Harvest acquisition declining in fiscal Q4. All told revenues for period surged 23.7% to $189.6 mil as Cannabis increased 28.6% to $68.5 mil, Distribution rose 20.1% to $73.4 mil and Beverage Alcohol rose 42.6% to $32.4 mil. (That's segment comprised of acquired alc players like SweetWater, Alpine/Green Flash, Breckenridge Distilling and lately Montauk.) But Wellness sagged 5.6% to $15.3 mil. Operating loss came in at steep $90 mil, tho that was considerably narrower than year-earlier $467.42 mil. On earnings call yesterday, ceo Irwin Simon assured investors that at time that "cash is king," Tilray opted to refinance debt so as to maintain cash hoard of $500 mil with which to invest in businesses and pursue further M&A.
We can't say for sure that National Milk Producers Assn has onboarded former UFC PR team to handle its communications. But lobbying group continued this week with its pugilistic tone in latest barrage vs plantmilk enemy that it reports to have moved into steeper volume decline than dairy milk, meaning it's actually losing share. "You read it here first," assn gloated.

