Beer Marketer's Insights
Dylan Mulvaney took to social media to publicly address the Bud Light controversy for 1st time since posting the Bud Light can with her face on it, which ultimately led to massive sales declines for the brand. Dylan "patiently waited for things to get better" after experiencing "more bullying and transphobia than I ever could've imagined….But surprise, they haven't really." Notably, Dylan sez she was "waiting for the brand to reach out to me, but they never did," a critique of AB, tho co not named. "For a company to hire a trans person and then not publicly stand by them is worse in my opinion than not hiring a trans person at all." Dylan's worked with several other cos "who care" about trans and the broader LGBTQ+ community, but it "requires a lot more than just a donation somewhere during Pride month," she added. End of the video points to charity to donate toward advancing transgender rights, as Dylan offers a "cheers, but only if you're of legal drinking age," perhaps more mindful of this after Sen Cruz's petition to Beer Inst Code Compliance Review Board. Stay tuned.
Monster's Beast Unleashed got $10.2 mil in sales, grabbed 0.26 share for 4 weeks thru Jun 18, while Modelo Oro got $9.2 mil and 0.23 share. The 2 hottest new brands got 0.5 share for 4 weeks including Memorial Day. Monster at $30.7 mil in sales yr-to-date, while Modelo Oro at $26.6 mil. For context, Monster's Beast Unleashed brand family bigger than Firestone 805, Tecate and not far from Guinness Extra Stout, even tho it's not in all of US and only rolled out this spring. Not bad.
Modelo Especial Now #1 Brand in $$ for 12 Wks in Circana; At $958 Mil, Bud Light at $904 Mil
Even if scan data only covers part of mkt and Especial only #1 for part of yr, this is a momentous shift in biz going on now for almost 3 mos. Modelo Especial up $120 mil, 14.3% to $958 mil last 12 weeks thru Jun 18 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data (going back to mid-Mar, just before controversy erupted). Meanwhile Bud Light down $226 mil 20% to $904 mil. Modelo Especial half a share point ahead in period: 8.64 to 8.16. To get an idea of just how fast and dramatically things have shifted in recent mos: Bud Light still over $200 mil and a full share point ahead year-to-date. WOW!
Dramatic competitive shifts continued for 4 weeks thru Jun 18 (including before, during and after Memorial Day) in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data. AB $$ sales down 11% and it lost 4.9 share of $$ to 30.7, while Molson Coors $$ up 17% and it gained 2.3 share to 19.2. Constellation $$ up 15% and it gained 1.95 share to 18.7. So those 3 players at 68.6 share of mkt. And STZ and TAP picked up 4.25 share out of 4.9 that AB lost. Several other notable share gainers included Yuengling $$ up a whopping 43.6% and 0.36 share, Kirin-Lion up 22% and 0.22 share and all incremental Monster (see below) which got 0.26 share. Spread the wealth: lotsa growth to go around at least for now, even as total industry $$ up 2.8% in last 4 weeks.
“An Absolute Banner Year”
For spirits biz that is. Or at least so said DISCUS (Distilled Spirits Council of US) prexy Peter Cressy in interview with Dow Jones. Spirits $$ will be up 5.9% to $13.95 bil in 03 and volume up 3%, according to DISCUS. Cressy credited law changes that improved access-to-mkt: 5 states passed laws allowing Sunday sales, 5 passed laws allowing consumers to sample spirits. Then too, spirits cos upped ad $$. “Preliminary data suggest both spirits and wine are grabbing market share from beer,” concluded Dow Jones.
“Alphabet Soup”
That’s how atty Marc Sorini characterized increasing # of Fed agencies “encroaching” on traditional TTB (old BATF) areas in BAA speech. FTC “inserted themselves into very controversial” direct-shipping, FDA will affect alc bevs with its Bioterrorism Act regs and “most ominously” NAS (Natl Academy of Science) study. Even TTB “looking at alcohol issues a lot more closely" since it no longer has firearms.
Naked Market Will Resurrect Once-Popular Haus Low-ABV Aperitif that Funding Woes Took Down
Among earlier entrants in recent wave of low/no-ABV bevs, Haus failed not because concept didn't resonate but because funding evaporated at time investors suddenly retrenched. Nearly a year after co dropped $10 mil Series A round and unwound ops, LA-based The Naked Market is seeking to resurrect it, starting with 3 of its best sellers. "While we had no plans on our roadmap to enter the alcohol industry, when the opportunity arose to take over a brand as strong as Haus, we quickly put the process in play to get a deal done," said Alex Kost, who cofounded Naked Market with Harrison Fugman as platform for innovative food/bev brands that so far include Rob's Backstage Popcorn and Flock Foods. Fugman serves as ceo, Kost coo. Terms weren't disclosed tho, unusually, Naked Market said it plans to cede 5% of shares to prior Haus employees, founders and and investors "to show appreciation for all the people who worked hard to build the brand into what it was." That presumably would include Haus founders Helena Price Hambrecht and Woody Hambrecht, who launched brand in Sonoma, Calif, in 2019. As TechCrunch reported, Haus had raised $17 mil in SAFE notes with investor roster that included angels like Casey Niestat and funds like Homebrew, Haystack Ventures and Coatue. At time it folded, it claimed to have exceeded $10 mil in revenues and was about to enter Winebow distributor. Helena, who took over as sole ceo after splitting with her husband/cofounder Woody, claimed that Constellation had committed to round but backed out at last minute citing timing issues. So assets were put up for sale. Tho it plays in alc space, we're covering resurrection here in BBI because it was key buzz generator in alc-alternatives and its funding woes echoed what others in space, both alc and NA, have encountered as investors' priorities have shifted over past year or 2.
It wasn't altogether surprising, given sophisticated retail and foodservice operators that Fancy Food Show reaches, but this seemed to be show for alc-alternative brands. (And recall that show put on by Specialty Food Assn doesn't typically boast large contingent of alc players.) As segment seems to be having its moment, here's rundown on a few of brands we encountered at NY's Javits Center during show's 3-day run from Sun thru Tues. We offered update on Mingle Mocktail on Mon. We'll likely have a couple more tomorrow.
Monster Bev seems to have succeeded with motion it filed last night claiming that its $362 mil offer for assets of Bang Energy marketer VPX Sports should be accepted because there are no other valid bids on the table and liquidation is only alternative. But bid still must get past Federal Trade Commission investigation of potential anticompetitive impact of deal, and rival bidder Gary Smith responded with blistering statement that MNST continues its effort to stifle competition. At issue is bid from Monster that's valued at as much as $362 mil that would take out Truist Bank and other creditors vs more modest offer from Smith's group, operating as Providence, in amount of $135 mil in cash that would leave banks holding paper as brand seeks to get back on track. He termed it a placeholder bid above liquidation value that he said he was in negotiations with Truist to increase. When his group offered earlier bid in $335 mil range, bank had indicated it viewed Providence as backup bid, he said.
“Sea Change” Needed in Soft Drinks; Beer?
Carbonated soft drinks have “an increasingly negative image” compared to non-carb categories, wrote Morgan Stanley’s Bill Pecoriello in blistering new report based on proprietary consumer research. Non-carbs “have a far healthier image” and bottled water “the best image of all.” Per cap consumption is declining “despite a record level of new product introductions” that hurt profitability. Needed: “more radical innovation,” according to Bill. Is sluggish beer biz also in need of far more innovation?