Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Asked by Biz Week Online about brewer charges that consumers are being misled by Smirnoff Ice, which doesn’t actually have any vodka, Diageo Ceo Paul Walsh fired back: “That’s purely self-serving rhetoric in order for the beer companies to protect their own franchise… The consumer doesn’t care.  When we have tested their attitudes, alcohol is alcohol.”  But beer guys “have a very advantageous tax regime.  So once you get your mind around alcohol being alcohol, then you go down the equivalency route that they find terrifying.”  Yet Paul reiterated that Diageo hasn’t “lobbied for change” in taxes and has “no plans to argue for equivalence” on taxes.  “I do believe we should have equal access to the consumer,” he added. 

"Public health agencies and policy makers should work with liquor control boards to reduce point of purchase marketing," sez Centers for Disease Control. Strange that CDC would get involved with POP, don't you think? But CDC survey of 329 cities found POP alcohol marketing in 94% of convenience stores, gas stations and small groceries, according to AP. These displays "could promote risky or underage drinking," sez CDC. (Shouldn't stores be checking IDs?) Less than half of same stores displayed anti-alcohol messages, according to CDC. Also claimed that POP increases beer sales by 17% and that 16% of stores visited sell single beer bottles in ice at the checkout counter.

German beer mkt, #3 worldwide, continues to decline. Down a tick in 02; down 5 of last 6 yrs, according to govt stats in Brauwelt mag. German beer biz down 4 mil bbls, 4% in last 5 yrs as young German drinkers moved away from beer. German beer mkt at 91 mil bbls in 2002. Germans spent more on wine than beer for 1st time ever in 01, reported Reuters. Gap widened in 02.

AB's $13.6 bil in revs ranked it 142d among Fortune 500 in 02, but its $1.9 bil in net income 42d among all US corporations. Over last 20 yrs, AB stock has averaged annual return of 18.2%, compared to 12.7% for S&P 500, AB's annual report showed. AB has best track record in recent yrs on various financial yardsticks among 8 beer, wine and soft drink cos tracked by JP Morgan's 50-page report The Cash Registrar. For example, AB's accounts receivable/sales ratio dropped to 4.6% in 4th qtr 02, compared to Coors at 18.7%, Coke 10.7%, Pepsi 10.1%, Constellation 17%. This measures length of time it takes to convert sales into cash. See report for lotsa other measures. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered rating on AB stock last week, concerned about AB's valuation relative to other bev stocks. Also cited "risk emerging" on pricing and unit growth related to economy, excise taxes, and competitive "resistance" to prices.

Giant wine and liquor distrib Glazer's has agreed to buy about 2-mil-case Montana Bev Co, Miller/Coors in El Paso. Guess consolidation ain't always the answer. Viramontes family had bought both Miller and Coors distribs in 98. But in heavily Hispanic mkt, AB has well over 70 share. Glazer's has said its revs about $2 bil in 9 states with 4,000 employees. Also will quietly sell over $100 mil in beer across several states. In El Paso, Glazer's already has 50 employees and could add 75 from Montana Bevs, according to El Paso Times.

Another import bummer in Feb: shipments dropped 115,000 bbls, 7%. Now down 245,000 bbls, 7.7% yr-to-date. And down 3 mos in a row for first time in a decade, according to Beer Inst's Matt Hein. All the biggest importing countries feeling effects: Mexican shipments down 11%, Dutch shipments down 6%, Canadian shipments down 7%. Even worse trends for German shipments (-14%) and UK shipments (-41%). Some of this could be effect of loading in late 02 or comparison with big #s before price hike last yr. But even 12-mo import trend is up just 839,000 bbls, 3.8% thru Feb 03. A significant softening.

Boston Beer appointed ex-PepsiCo exec Cynthia L Swanson as new Class B Director of the Company board effective July 1, co announced yesterday via 8-K filing. This fills the vacancy of former Class B director Michael Lynton who opted not to stand for reelection at co's May 17 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Cynthia will also serve on the Audit Committee in place of Director Julio N Nemeth and Compensation Committee in place of Director Jean-Michael Valette, as both Julio and Jean-Michael were only temporarily appointed to those roles, announcement notes.

Between Jun 15-July 8, AB will be offering up to $15 rebates for purchases of a 15-pack of Bud, Bud Light and Bud Select and Select 55, according to USA Today article yesterday and various other media outlets. "The beer could be practically free," added USA Today. "Free beer here," wrote the NY Post. Of course, each article noted continuing steep declines of Bud Light. "Bud Light will pay out the rebate to customers by way of a prepaid digital card," noted NY Post. Bud Light website sez rebate will be paid "via Anheuser Busch Digital Prepaid Mastercard," lists 38 states where "offer good," tho there is slight variation in some, depending on state laws. A similar promo over Memorial Day had little to no discernible effect on Bud Light's overall trend.

Anheuser Busch's latest mktg campaign is more of a corporate ad celebrating various "people and partners" across its supply chain "that help the company make America's most beloved beers," co announced. A 60-second spot dubbed "That's Who We Are" showcases just some of the "65,000 Americans that bring our beer to life," from barley, rice and hop farmers to AB's own brew team, security guards, a historian, delivery team and distributor, to bar workers. Ad will launch "in local markets across the country" and over "140 AB employees, growers, wholesalers and partners contributed to making" the ad. AB employs over 18K workers in US (over 19K according to website) and indie distrib network employs another 47K, per release.