Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Where beer biz laggin’ behind wine/spirits, that is. Per capita beer consumption in Britain dropped avg 3%/yr 1998-2003, reports Datamonitor. Same period, spirits consumption rose slightly, wine consumption up nearly 18%. Another similarity: on-premise sales down in UK too.  
Fox reportedly jumping Super Bowl ad rates by 4.4-8.7% this yr. That means a 30 second spot will now cost $2.4-2.5 mil, according to Wall St Jnl. AB has secured 5 minutes of air time for its exclusive. Even if it gets discount for purchasing so many spots, it’s still an expensive day. Then again, last yr 89.8 mil people watched Super Bowl.

AB continues to struggle in home state Mo. Down 50,000 bbls, 2.5% for 8 mos and 2.6% for 12 mos too. In last 12 mos, AB down 2 share to 64.5. But Miller has slowed lately too, including 12% drop in Aug. Still up 7% for 6, 8 and 12 mos. It has gained 1.1 share. Coors is flat, but All Others jumped 35,000 bbls, 17% yr-to-date and 0.9 share in last 12 mos.

This time in NY. Just struck deal to purchase Premier out on Long Island with annual revs a mere $300 mil, according to Newsday. When deal closes in Dec, this will mark 12th state in which SWS does biz. Already over $5 bil in sales, SWS bigger than almost all of its suppliers. With this purchase it will now do biz in 4 of 5 largest mkts, leaving only Tex. This deal "establishing a footprint" in Northeast, wrote Miami Herald. Asked if he has any plans to enter Tex, SWS chairman Harvey Chaplin told Herald: “Not today.”
Media spending for import brands in 1st half that is, according to tnsmi/cmr data. Many competing import brands got same or less media support as last yr. Compare Jan-Jun 2004/03 spending levels (mil $$): Heineken $22.9/$23.5; Corona & Light $17.3/$18.9; Guinness $8.5/$8.2; Amstel Light $12.8/$15.9. Then look at Interbrew hikes: Labatt Blue & Light $13.7/$11.2; Beck’s $7.9/$2.4; Dos Equis $4.0/$2.9. Note too Interbrew pumped $6.3 mil into Bass Jan-Jun 04 compared to $2.7 mil spent by Diageo Jan-Jun 03. Interbrew reduced spending on only 1 key brand, Tecate: $1/$1.2.  
$234 mil in suspended SOT taxes on alc bev licenses for 3 yrs is a start. Industry lobbyists have been tryin’ for years to get feds to wipe out SOT tax on licenses: $250/retail location, $500/wholesale, $1000/manufacturer. A 3-yr hold on tax was part of huge corporate tax package passed by House/Senate. Now goes to President Bush.
In Tex, light beer over 60 share of total beer biz and steadily gained share in recent yrs (driven by Bud Light gains, even as Coors Light and Miller Lite declined). But some unusual developments so far in 2004. First of all, trends changed for each of big 3 light beers that are almost half the biz. Perhaps even more importantly though, collectively they are down 315,000 bbls, 5.6% for 7 mos. That’s mainly because Bud Light down 94,000 bbls, 2.9% in its biggest state. (Bud Light remains up 3-4% nationally.) Miller Lite has dramatically reversed course from double-digit declines. But it’s up much less in Tex than elsewhere; gained 31,000 bbls, 2.6% thru Jul. Meanwhile, Coors Light dropoffs have accelerated. It’s down 126,000 bbls, 13% yr-to-date in Tex. Collectively, these 3 mega-brands down 2 share to 48.7 so far in 2004. Makin' up much of slack for AB: Mich Ultra up 95,000 bbls, 88%. At 1.8 share. 
10/07/2004

NY Beer Wholesalers honored veteran industry consultant Mark Rodman last night in NYC with assn

Super case sales up 5.8% for 4 weeks thru Sep 26, according to IRI. Gained 3 of last 4 weeks. That followed 3 consecutive 4-week periods when volume down 3-4%. Supports anecdotal evidence that Sep a pretty good month for beer biz. But avg prices paid up just 2%, compared to 3% in most recent 4-week periods. AB lost 0.5 share last 4 weeks while Coors and Miller gained slight share.

Heineken blamed recent “severe weather conditions,” like hurricanes, for worse than expected US sales.  Lowered expectation for full yr growth to 3.5-4% from 5%, reported Dow Jones.  Recall Heineken also increasing price in much of country.