If you think you saw fewer beer ads in 1st half of 04 than in past, you’re probably right.  So suggests Jan-Jun media spending data from tnr/media intelligence/cmr.  They track spending in 10 media; some suppliers say the reported figures are low.  Only 2 big beer suppliers spent more those 6 mos vs same period last yr: Miller and Labatt USA.

AB cut major-brand spending $15 mil, 7% Jan-Jun, before a Summer Olympics bump.  Spent more on Bud Light (+$12 mil, 17%) and Bud (+$2.5 mil, 4.3%), but slashed spending on Busch brands, Bacardi brands and even Michelob family.  Mich Ultra got $28.1 mil, +40%, but spending for other Michelob brands got whacked.  Miller eased off accelerator in 2d-qtr spending, following 85% jump in 1st qtr.  But still spent about 5% more Apr-Jun.  YTD thru Jun, Miller media spending up $37 mil, 35%.  Support for Lite-alone dipped $3.6 mil, 5%, but Miller spent incremental $10 mil on joint Lite/MGD ads and zoomed MGD spending by $30 mil, 217%.  (Didn't get much for that MGD investment so far.)  Miller also tripled High Life/Light spending.  Shifted $6.5 mil out of malternatives.  Look at AB/Miller spending gap Jan-Jun.  AB had outspent Miller on major brands by $110 mil in 2003, and by $100 mil in 1st 6 mos 2002.  In 04, gap narrowed to $58 mil.  Coors really cut media spending in 1st half.  Even with $11.4 mil Aspen Edge intro spending, major-brand support down $12 mil, 13%.  Coors nearly eliminated spending on Zima and Killian's, and took huge slice out of Coors Orig.   Even cut Coors Light spending by nearly $5 mil, 7%.  Spending for Modelo and Heineken brands down 9-10% each; 2d-qtr reductions were even sharper.  Diageo cut spending nearly 30% on malt bevs for 6 mos, tho it jumped 2d-qtr spending 50%.  Boston spending off 27% YTD, but it plans 2d-half boost.  LUSA was outlier.  Upped spending nearly $11 mil, 50% for 6 mos.  That excludes Beck’s which more than tripled media $$ to $7.9 mil Jan-Jun. 

Interestingly, looks like distillers shifting media dollars (from print to cable, as Ad Age recently reported), but not necessarily spending more.  In fact, of top-10 liquor brands, only Jim Beam got more media $$$ in 1st half this yr.  And big liquor brands still advertised much less than big beer brands, especially in 1st half of yr.  Absolut was only top brand with over $10 mil media support.  Bacardi, Capt Morgan, Jack Daniels, Jose Cuervo, Crown Royal and Grey Goose all in $6-8 mil range.

Duplicating the results of a 2001 study from North Carolina, Canadian researchers used actual BAC data from college students in Ontario to suggest their colleagues in the US (and elsewhere) misuse the term

That’s current state of a lot of beer execs INSIGHTS talked to in last couple of weeks. Following a sluggish summer overall, they’re by-and-large coming off a crummy Oct (to be expected with 2 less selling days). Distribs also express more uncertainty about their suppliers’ plans. So far, we’ve heard hardly any raves about fall industry meetings, including AB, Miller, Coors, Heineken. It’s a searching period for most major players in beer biz, where they’re looking for new answers amidst slower than expected growth.

In 2 weeks thru Oct 17, beer volume in supers down 1.7%, according to IRI as reported by Marc Cohen at Goldman Sachs. Interestingly, Bud Light gained more share than Miller Lite in latest 2 weeks. That’s probably 1st time all yr. It’s up 2% and 0.6 share for 2 weeks, compared to Miller Lite, which slowed to 4.4% growth and 0.5 share gain. But total AB still down 0.9 share in supers for 2 weeks, while Miller and Coors each down just 0.1 share. Avg prices for all beers continue up 3%+ so far in Oct. Notable exception: Heineken avg prices down 1% last 2 weeks, volume up 10%.

AB has clearly stepped-up its pace of new product activity in 2d half of 2004.  Could be strategic shift in wake of spirits challenge, slower-than-expected beer and AB growth.  Since Jun, AB already announced lo-carb Budweiser Select and Bacardi Green Apple, plus on-premise focused B to the E.  Next up:  TTB just approved label for AB’s latest product, Michelob VVV.  This brand will have 5.5% alcohol content and 5 grams of carbs.  It will come in a sharp looking 16 oz metal bottle.  Label approval sez  “10-state.”  Word is it will make late 04 debut.  It’s unusual that AB would throw so many new brands out there so late in the year.  INSIGHTS hears rumblings of other new AB brands in works. 

As US brewers wrestle with how to get to next level in a tuff beer mkt, they made most obvious move: they called for meetings.  AB, Miller and Heineken each met with distrib networks in last week. AB had all its distribs into Chi to unveil its on-premise initiatives and equity agreement changes for 2005.  AB intro’d new effort to  reach 15 mil consumers on-premise next yr “to enhance the image and presentation of beer,” AB prexy August Busch IV told INSIGHTS.  AB will put 800 people against on-premise channel (including outside vendors, distrib personnel, AB's own folks), increase spending 150% against channel, implement greater call frequency in “high-end” accounts and require other increased investments by distribs.  As part of on-premise initiative, AB will send out young brewmasters to extol glories of fresh beer on-premise.  Equity agreement changes also include mandating C02 filtration devices and line cleaning where allowed.

Meanwhile, bars could get mighty crowded with industry folks.  Miller plans to conduct 5 mil consumer taste tests by end of 2005.  At same time, Miller intro’d several new tv spots aimed at undercutting AB freshness initiative.  (AB did not have new ads this week.)  Miller meetings also put a lot of focus on subpremiums.  Miller sells about 14 mil bbls of subpremiums, sr veep sales Doug Brodman said.  It’s a 50 mil-bbl mkt.  But since 99, according to Doug, 2d-tier brewers fell from 12 mil bbls of subpremiums to 8 mil bbls and “AB grabbed all of that economy volume.”  So “if we don’t go after our fair share” of segment, “AB wins by default.”  Miller will have “new packaging,” “compelling advertising” etc on its subpremium brands.  Fighting back against AB in low-end and further capturing some of the “fallout” in economy brands “will deliver about $75 million in margin to Miller distributors,” and 2 mil bbls over next 5 yrs to Miller system, asserted Doug.  More on meetings next week in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS.  

What have we here? Micros have modestly outperformed all yr in supers. But that’s accelerated in most recent periods. Micros up 3.7% for last 13 weeks thru Oct 3 in supers, according to IRI. The segment even gained 0.2 share of volume, while imports only held share. Meanwhile, total beer volume in supers down 2%. Boston Beer volume up 5.7% for 13 weeks and gained 0.1 share with Seasonal brands up double-digits. Other hot top micro brands include Fat Tire up 18.6% and Pyramid Hefeweizen up 14.8% for last 13 weeks. Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, #1 micro brand, up 7.5% last 13 weeks.

When the ceo of #1 US brewer chooses to focus speech predominantly on increasing challenge from spirits cos, times have changed. Beer biz is at

Lengthy Fortune profile of “new No. 1 in the world of beer” calls InBev a “work in progress” that is “king of beers right now” but “doesn’t rule the world.” InBev “has difficulty describing what it represents,” according to Fortune, but has “major presence in far more markets than” AB. Article asks why “top brewers are so obsessed with globalization.” One motive, “global brands sell at significantly higher prices,” according to InBev ceo John Brock. Kinda like old days when national brands like Bud sold at higher prices than regional brands. Brahma will go “head-to-head” with Corona “around the world,” InBev ceo John Brock told Fortune. Labatt “completes our dream of becoming a Pan-American player” said Carlos Brito, AmBev ceo. “Brito says he plans to squeeze more profit from Labatt by applying Ambev’s tight-fisted business methods,” wrote Fortune.  

While AB and Miller reported sluggish summer sales, Barton numbers went thru roof in qtr thru Aug. Beer revs up $42 mil, 17% to $289 mil for qtr as it motored right on thru big price hike. Now up $72 mil, 16% for 6 mos to $526 mil. Maybe "pricing is image," as 1 major Modelo distrib has told us. This qtr was somewhat surprising for another reason. Scanner data showed Modelo $$ sales down 3% for 13 weeks thru Sep 5, according to IRI. But with volume shifting away from supers, “the data is unreliable for determining trends of the entire category,” Constellation ceo Richard Sands said in conference call. Barton’s trends also far better than Richard himself had expected. He had forecast volume flat to down slightly in fiscal yr, but it’s clearly much better than that. Now Richard expects “low single-digit beer net sales growth” in next 2 qtrs “as price increases more than offset potential reductions in volume.”