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Even with Bell's tuff decline amid its transition to new ownership and operations, New Belgium's impressive double-digit growth drove parent co Kirin-Lion's craft portfolio to new heights in 2022. New Belgium shipments jumped nearly 15%, gaining 157K bbls to 1.226 mil bbls total in 2022 (including some Fruit Smash hard seltzer growth), co shared with CBN. That's the #1 gain among craft brewers and 2d largest barrel-gain in beer behind only Constellation last yr. Notably, New Belgium surpassed Sierra for the first time ever. It finished the year over 160K bbls ahead of Sierra, and is closing in on Sam Adams family all-channel, CBN figures. So Bell's near 8%, 37K-bbl decline to 447K bbls in 2022 looks more like a small blip with the combined portfolios. Collectively, Kirin-Lion portfolio grew 7.7% to 1.673 mil bbls. It's now the #11 beer supplier by all-channel volume in the US and not too far behind FIFCO USA (~1.9 mil bbls, we estimate). With New Belgium lookin' to keep building on Voodoo Ranger's momentum while revamping Fat Tire, and Bell's planning for significant rebound, Kirin-Lion expects to continue climbin' in 2023.Voodoo Ranger Depletions +30%; Still +5% w/o Historic Juice Force Launch; Incremental 160-170K Bbls? Voodoo Ranger family depletions grew 30% and now makes up a little over half of the collective NBB + Bell's mix, CEO Steve Fechheimer shared with CBN in recent chat alongside Bell's EVP Carrie Yunker. Indeed, the Voodoo Ranger brand family sold more barrels in 2022 than New Belgium sold in Steve's first full year with the company (~850K bbls), he again confirmed. A huge portion of growth came from the historic launch of Juice Force, the largest craft brand launch ever. Juice Force sold over 100K bbls (1.47 mil cases) in 2022 tracked Nielsen xAOC plus liquor + convenience channels alone. Suggests Juice Force was somewhere between 160K to 170K bbls all-channel (Nielsen tracked over 64% of total NBB volume).But the Voodoo Ranger family still grew depletions by over 5% excluding Juice Force, Steve highlighted. Voodoo Ranger is "not reliant" on innovation. "To me, that's a really great sign of the brand platform we have," said Steve. Co expects to keep Voodoo flyin' high. Fruit Force is "top priority" from innovation in 2023 as co's "already seen great distribution on the brand, particularly in convenience," leading up to "significant" chain push across channels in Mar-Apr. This will help "continue to drive growth for the overall family."There's still lots of distribution oppy in c-stores across the Voodoo lineup, Steve has previously pointed out. And on-prem viewed as a big opportunity since Voodoo Ranger significantly under-indexes there. The brand's ability to travel and grow nationally continues to stand out, with its top-50 distributors located "all over the country," Steve acknowledged. It's "growing everywhere." Co "spend[s] a lot of energy and money in the gaming community and art community," plus social media content, to further connect with natl audiences.Bell's Two Hearted $$ -5% in Scans; Tuff Trends on Seasonal & All Others Bell's flagship Two Hearted Ale fared better than rest of its portfolio in 2022. Two Hearted sales still dipped about 5%, volume -7% in tracked Nielsen channels, shedding a bit of share of craft segment in the process. But total Bell's family $$ declined nearly 8%, volume -11%. So all other Bell's brands collectively slipped double-digits including Seasonal/Oberon down low-double-digits and Light Hearted, Official and LoSun dropping at steeper rates, among others. HopSlam was Bell's lone growth standout in scans last yr with new cans driving growth. Then too, co took 2 bites at that apple, recall, releasing brand first early in yr, as it had historically, then again for holiday season, when co plans to release it going forward.Oberon Variety Pk Comin'; Lager Innovation; Hearted Extensions Already Ahead of Plan On top of new Hearted line extensions and variety pk, Bell's is also lookin' to line extend Oberon more broadly this yr, as sibling pub INSIGHTS Express reported yesterday. Cherry Oberon and two other Oberon extension flavors will be released with the original Oberon in an Oberon variety pk. Previously, Oberon extensions have only been available locally/at Bell's taproom and Cherry Oberon has been a crowd favorite that draws big lines on Oberon Day, Carrie told CBN. So far, Hazy Hearted and Hearted variety pack orders are comin' in at 160% of plan, Carrie added. And expect to see more lager innovations for co's home Great Lakes/Michigan region, she hinted.Bell's Changed 66 Distribs in 24 States; Grew 2.5% in MI; "Good Story to Tell" There was plenty of "disruption" built into Bell's year as the combined cos sought to integrate internal processes and consolidate their distribution networks across many mkts, both Carrie and Steve acknowledged. Last yr, Bell's moved to 66 different distribs across 24 states, co shared with CBN. Now that Bell's is settling in, sales noticeably improved in Q4. And "there's a good story to tell" about growth in its home state MI, Carrie highlighted. Bell's grew 2.5% and reclaimed its spot as the #1 supplier in-state, she shared. Bell's sells 46% of the beer it makes in MI, suggesting it's still over 200K bbls in-state. Notably, co didn't look to consolidate dist networks in MI. "Strength" in MI makes Carrie and co hopeful that the brand can return to healthier trends elsewhere.Another notable area of strength in this new era for Bell's: convenience moved up to become its #2 channel, despite typically being under-indexed there, said Carrie. This provides a "wonderful opportunity for brands like Two Hearted," able to "leverage the strength of the national sales team." But both New Belgium and Bell's are being "really conscious to keep certain teams and brand identities" run separately, Carrie and Steve added.NBB's Mountain Time Adding States; Could Become Natl, But "Building Brands Slowly is Really Important" A lot of New Belgium's focus will be put toward Voodoo Ranger and the Fat Tire rebrand, but brands like Mountain Time lager and Dominga sour "are really important parts of the portfolio as you think about the totality of what we offer," said Steve. Brands like these could become "future legs of growth," in his view. On that note, Mountain Time will expand to new mkts this year, adding ID and filling out NC statewide. This brand "could become national" at some point, he thought, but co's in no rush. "Building brands slowly is really important, especially in today's craft market," said Steve, adding that "lager behaves a bit differently than craft beer." So co "want[s] to learn as we expand." But "just cause it's called Mountain Time doesn't mean it's limited" to mountain-based locations. And co wants to "build the brand the right way over the right period of time."Fruit Smash hard seltzer was notably not top of mind for Steve and co when asked about other key brands underneath Voodoo Ranger and Fat Tire. Yet Fruit Smash was one of the few sizable craft hard seltzers that managed to grow in 2022 as the seltzer segment hit a wall. It's a "competitive marketplace," Steve acknowledged, and "we're really happy it was able to grow in that context." It can recruit new drinkers in different ways, but ultimately falls further down the priority list vs core brands like Voodoo Ranger, Fat Tire, Two Hearted and Oberon.Fast Start for Both Bell's & New Belgium in 2022; Bell's Expects to Surpass 500K Bbls in 2023 New Belgium grew faster in Q4 2022 than any other qtr last year, and co's "seeing that continue" into 2023 so far, Steve shared. Similarly, Bell's posted its best trend of the year in Q4, and "we're seeing momentum carry over into Q1." In fact, Bell's expects to "exceed" 500K bbls produced "and then some," Carrie confirmed with CBN following recent MLive article. That'd be double-digit growth and ahead of its previous peak. "The addition of a second canning line" by early Feb that will 2x canning capacity, boost from going fully natl (except HI) by Jun and new line extensions around core brands are expected to fuel growth. Bell's wants to tap into New Belgium's marketing/branding mindset and core brands will see big increases in spend vs prior years.

Kirin-Lion Craft Up to 1.67 Mil Bbls in 2022 w/ NBB +15%, Bell's -8%; Voodoo Magic; Bell's Aims for Big Rebound in '23

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