Beer Marketer's Insights - US Beer Profit Pool Neared $11 Bil in 2022, per Bernstein; Constellation Snagged 21 Share in a Decade

Biggest beer profit pool in the world got even bigger. US profits hit $10.7 bil for suppliers in 2022, according to Bernstein report titled "North America&hellip; A steadily growing $15bn profit pie, with STZ the biggest share gainer." So US makes up almost 3/4 of beer profits across US, Canada and Mexico. And North America remains "by far the most important" global beer profit pool, despite having just ~6% of world's population. Power of premiumization and advantages of 3-tier system continue to boost US profits. Even with flat volumes for the past decade, US beer profits grew more than $3 bil from $7.4 bil in 2012, per report. Up $500 mil from $10.2 bil in 2019, the last numbers Bernstein published.AB at 45 Share of US Profits, STZ 27 and MC 11 in 2022; In 2012, AB at 69 Share, STZ 6 Share ABI dominates the North American mkt, accounting for roughly half of all beer profits across the continent. And it's top player in US, at $4.8 bil and about 45% of country's beer profits last yr. Yet it held ~69 share of US profit pool in 2012, losing about 24 share over the past decade, per report. Constellation at just 6% of US profits ($0.4 bil) in 2012 vs Molson Coors at 17 share ($1.2 bil). But STZ more than quadrupled its share of US profits to 27% ($2.9 bil) by 2022, as MC fell to 11 share with profits about flat for the decade, Bernstein estimates.Could Constellation One Day Pass AB Profits in US? Constellation is easily 2d most profitable US supplier, nearly 2.5x MC's profits despite much smaller volumes. STZ profits roughly 1/2 as big as AB in 2022. But AB's US profits could decline upwards of $1 bil this yr following Bud Light fallout, JP Morgan estimated (see May 23 issue). Could Constellation one day pass AB profits in US? Over the past decade, STZ profits increased at 20% CAGR vs AB and MC down 1% per yr on avg.North American Beer Mkt by Country Here's detailed breakdown of North American beer mkt, as estimated by Bernstein: US accounted for 67% of volume, 76% of revenue ($45 bil) and 73% of profit ($10.7 bil) in 2022. Mexico made up 28% of volume, 17% of revs ($10.1 bil) and 23% of profit ($3.4 bil). And Canada got 5% of volume, 7% of revenue ($4 bil) and 3% of profit ($0.5 bil). Both Mexico and Canada described as close to duopolies. Tho unlike US or Mexico, Canadian beer profit pool shrank over past decade due to falling per capita consumption and share loss to wine, Bernstein points out.

US Beer Profit Pool Neared $11 Bil in 2022, per Bernstein; Constellation Snagged 21 Share in a Decade

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