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Guinness is already growing great guns in the US and globally, but Diageo brass believe the brand can accelerate into higher gear from here, execs emphasized today at a dedicated Guinness Investor Day in Dublin. It's already 1 of Diageo's 13 different billion-dollar brands and co's "third largest" globally behind only Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff, ceo Debra Crew highlighted. Guinness is also the #1 beer brand in Ireland and Great Britain, which together with the US account for ~60% of the brand's total net sales. Yet while the US and other mkts are vastly undershared comparatively, that disparity drives Diageo's confidence, alongside deliberate strategic shifts. In the US, "we were able to grow total brand volume over 23% last year, including 32% in the on trade," said DBCo North America president Laura Merritt. And this spring will mark brand's "largest ever spring reset" with over 5,100 new points of distribution at retail. That "represents a 5% increase" in off-prem accounts selling cans of Guinness Draught, including "nearly doubling our presence in convenience stores." The brand also made strides in club channel with Costco and BJs, winning distribution in key on-prem accounts to boot.Topping that list is key national chain Buffalo Wild Wings, where Guinness "just recently secured" a new natl distribution agreement that'll bring it into 1,300 new locations over the next yr.It also gained placements in Yard House and Hooters, among others. Overall dist grew 14% in restaurants and 8% in sports bars so far this yr. That's after already becoming the fastest-growing beer brand on-premise as well as #1 on-prem beer offering in NYC and Boston, recall. Shipments of Guinness kegs nearly doubled in sales value since fiscal 2021, the largest Guinness package by volume at over a qtr of the brand's net sales, added Laura.Guinness continues to benefit from a cultural cool factor that most CPG cos would dream of. But "what looks like a great moment is really great momentum, which we've been deliberately and methodically building," according to Laura. On a global scale, Guinness shifted its strategy in recent yrs to attract a younger, more diverse and more female consumer via culturally relevant content. And while "we never take our core consumer for granted," Diageo's had "tremendous success liberating the brand" from its typical Irish pub placements and Paddy's Day confines, she commented. Backed by more inclusive and yr-round mktg, coupled with key sports sponsorships such as English Premier League, "Guinness is thriving," and it "continues to accelerate in the US" amid heightened competition.Guinness a "Crown Jewel," Sez CFO; Size of the Prize Analysis Globally, Diageo beer grew at a ~15% CAGR from fiscal 2020-2024, adding more than $900 mil of sales in that time, cfo Nik Jhangiani outlined. And Guinness contributed 75% of that, with a 21% CAGR over that period. It's "clearly a jewel in our portfolio." Yet despite its leadership position in Ireland and Great Britain, Guinness is currently the #20 brand by value share in the US, #14 in Canada and #34 in China by Diageo's count, Nik highlighted. It's still "a relatively small player" in the US at less than 1 share vs 34 in Ireland. But that means there's a "lot more to go for." If Guinness had 1/4 of the share in the US as it does in Great Britain, that'd be an incremental ~$500 mil in net sales, Nik noted. If Guinness 0 were at parity, that'd be an additional $250 mil.Global Case Studies in Ireland and Great Britain In its home country of Ireland, Guinness is the #1 beer brand and accounts for a whopping 1 in every 3 pints on-premise, managing director of Diageo Ireland Barry O' Sullivan shared. But despite its size, the brand delivered double digit growth there for each of the last 3 yrs. It's also a key mkt for innovation, the first country to launch Guinness 0 on draught (now available in over 2K pubs and the #2 NA beer brand there) as well as Guinness Nitrosurge, a device that allows consumers to enjoy a properly poured Guinness pint at home, now in 1/4 of all Irish households.But Ireland is "no longer alone" since Guinness became the #1 beer in Great Britain too, noted GB managing director Nuno Teles (who formerly led Diageo's US beer biz and will run co's Mexican biz starting in July). Guinness more than doubled its net sales in GB since 2019. It ascended to #1 spot with 17.5 share of the on-trade by Mar 2025, nearly double its 9.3 share in Mar 2022.Guinness 0.0 Just Getting Started; Already 5% of Guinness $$ Mix in US Moderation is the "biggest potential disruptor of our industry," acknowledged Debra. But it's also a key opportunity and Guinness 0 "has a clear role" to play, including a "significant opportunity" to take it global. The NA brand at least doubled every yr since launch, and co claims it's the "fastest growing scale no-alc beer brand" with nearly a million drinkers, over half of which were new to the brand. In GB, it's #1 NA beer brand with 26 share of the segment, now representing "about 10%" of Guinness brand there. And tho it's currently the #9 NA beer in the US, Guinness 0 contributed 50% of the brand's total growth in fiscal 24 and is the "third fastest-growing in the on-trade," according to Laura. The brand "grew over 80% in the first half of fiscal 25" (thru Dec 2024) in North America. It's about 5% of total net sales for Guinness in the US, so Laura sees "significant" growth oppys to scale, including thru launch of 8pks and other new formats.More Efficient to Ship By Sea to US at Current Scale; "Confident" They've Got Enuf Capacity Perhaps unsurprisingly, a questioner asked if Diageo would consider US production if it achieved a certain scale. But global supply chain and procurement prexy Ewan Andrew noted that it's far more efficient to ship by sea than to produce at one large-scale brewery in the US and try to ground ship across the country. That would also of course be capital intensive and would likely require multiple facilities to make sense. But "if it was right for the market and the brand, there are solutions that are possible," he added. Ewan highlighted 8% capacity growth at St James' Gate production facility over the last 3 yrs, and Diageo is building another "state of the art" brewery Southwest of Dublin in Littleconnell, expected to come online in Q2 2026 to handle ale and lager production. That will allow St James to focus on Guinness. Asked if they'd be able to handle another surge in demand like they saw this past Christmas, Ewan said he's "confident" they've got enough capacity, adding that last yr's incident maybe earned it "a little bit of brand fame" as well.

Guinness Grew 23% Last Yr, 32% On-Prem in US; "Largest Ever Spring Reset"; More Investor Day Highlights

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