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With another summer in the books, it's "an understatement to say that this year&#39;s results were a little disappointing," Bump Williams Consulting wrote in its latest monthly letter, and craft beer sales were no different. In fact, craft segment is "on pace to incur its largest Volume and Value sales declines of the last three years in NIQ Off-Premise data." That's sayin' something as last few years haven't exactly been pretty. But reduction in longtail brands is a big piece of the puzzle, BWC shows, reiterating that more focused craft suppliers tend to outperform off-prem. Craft beer trends (ex non-alc) steepened over the summer to volume -8.4% and $$ -6.4%; several pts below total beer volume -5.6% and $$ down 5.1% for 18 wks thru Sep 20 vs yr ago. And when comparing craft's yr-to-date sales thru Sep 20 vs the same period in 2023, the # of craft vendors (-10%), sub-brands (-13%) and SKUs (-12.5%) are all down double digits. Tracked craft vendors dropped to 2,162 from over 2,400 two yrs ago, sub-brands fell below 14K from nearly 16K and SKUs dropped to 17,537 from over 20K at this point in 2023. That of course weighs on sales. But BWC again espouses a "LESS is more" approach in reprisal of deep-dive analysis from last yr, exploring portfolio dynamics of top craft suppliers.The "results of this year's analysis build on last year's and serve as further affirmation about the importance of FOCUS by Craft Vendors, especially as it relates to competing in today&#39;s more challenged marketplace," wrote BWC. This year's report narrows down to the top 100 craft suppliers (down from 150 last yr) across NIQ off-prem scans yr-to-date thru Sep 13, including AB, Boston Beer, Heineken, MC, Monster and US Beverage, but with NAs tracked separately. Unlike last yr, even the more efficient top craft suppliers are experiencing volume declines. However, they're declining "at a noticeably slower rate."Top 100 Craft Vendors Up 0.6 Share of Volume to 83.5 Top 100 craft vendors at 83.5 share of total craft volume, BWC found, up 0.6 share. That's even with their volume collectively down 7.3% vs yr ago. Slightly better than total craft volume down 7.9% YTD and a walk in the park compared to all other craft suppliers collectively down 11.1%. But whether looking at # of styles, sub brands, SKUs, amount of new items or percentage of sales from IPA, a clear picture emerges.Trends Down Just Low Singles Among Most Focused ~30 Suppliers The 32 suppliers selling exclusively craft beer saw volume decline just 3.4%. On flip side, the 6 for which craft doesn't make up a majority of their sales saw volume drop 8.1%, while the 62 in the middle were down 7.2%. It's also cut and dry by # of craft styles: the 30 suppliers playing in 6 or less styles declined just 2.3%. Notably, 19 of them sell exclusively craft beer and saw combined volume down just 1.3%. Volume dropped 7% for suppliers in 7-10 styles and fell 7.7% for those playing in 11+. Then too, suppliers selling 25 SKUs or fewer declined just 2.2%, while those selling 1 or 0 new items declined just 2.8%, far better than their more sprawling peers.Flavor Faux Pas? 39 Top 100 Craft Suppliers Collectively Down 14% in FMBs/Seltzer/Cider Look no further than top craft suppliers' flavored alc trends as a reminder of "the risk associated with expanding beyond one&#39;s core competencies and diluting focus on the brands/styles that keep the lights on," notes BWC. After excluding AB, Boston Beer, Heineken, MC, Monster, and US Beverage, the "39 other Top 100 Craft Vendors who are competing in Flavored Beer (FMB/Seltzer/Cider) are collectively declining in Volume Sales by -14.2%." That's more than double the drop of total flavored beer volume, down -6.6% YTD vs yr ago. Tho total portfolio trends of top craft cos playing in flavor ain't nearly as bad: total bev alc volume sales dropped 5.1% YTD among the 68 suppliers playing in segments beyond craft.23 of Top 100 in Growth Mode, Collectively Up ~8%; Driven by IPAs Surely some lessons to learn from the roughly quarter of top 100 craft suppliers actually growing yr-to-date volume, 23 to be exact. They're collectively up +7.7% vs yr ago. Ten of those 23 compete exclusively in craft with another 5 limited to craft + NAs. Just 4 compete in 3 or more segments. Tho only 4 are above 5% category weighted distribution, too. Perhaps most strikingly, IPAs account for 88% (!) of their volume sales growth, with 38% of that growth coming from high-ABV offerings. And surprise, surprise, those suppliers playing more heavily in IPA tended to trend better. Volume down 5.5% for the 37 suppliers for which IPAs make up more than 2/3 of their craft case sales. Compare to -6.8% for the 33 top 100 suppliers between 35-65%, and -9.5% for the 30 selling less than that in the top craft style by leaps and bounds.

Craft On Track for Biggest Decline in 3 Yrs; Focus Still the Way Forward, BWC Finds

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